Tidbits from The Athletic

I have been writing for The Athletic for six weeks now and I wanted to give you a little taste of it. None of it is BABS-related, but they are similar articles to what I was writing for ESPN the last four years. Unfortunately, I cannot republish that content here, but I can excerpt and abstract. This is not a promotion for TA, but there are still discounts available if you are interested in subscribing.

FEB 11: Is Max Scherzer more valuable to your team than Mike Trout?

I asked this question in one of my reader polls here and the split was a lot closer than you would have thought. About 32% chose Scherzer, which begs the question, why isn’t anyone drafting the pitcher first? Seriously, if you believe Scherzer is more valuable, why aren’t you willing to pay more for him? The scarcity of elite pitching stats provides an interesting argument for the discussion.

FEB 14: Here’s what’s wrong with everybody

This was a fun exercise where I went down the top 15 ranked players and provided reasons why each one could fall short of first round earnings. After all, history shows that 10 of those 15 players will fall short. Who would be the most likely targets? Here are two:

4. Max Scherzer and his six consecutive seasons of a 200 innings – 240 strikeouts is a level of consistency that has great value. However, it also takes a potential toll on the arm of a 34 year-old. Looking back, after six straight 200-inning seasons, Roy Halladay struggled to a 4.49 ERA at age 35. After five straight 200-inning seasons, C.C. Sabathia struggled to a 5.28 ERA at age 33. After nine straight 200-inning seasons, James Shields struggled to a 5.85 ERA at age 34. Of course, I could go on cherry-picking all day.

And BABSophiles will appreciate this one:

15. Jose Altuve hit 24 home runs for two seasons before collapsing last year (admittedly, injuries played a part), but his peripherals never supported that power. After finishing ranked 39th overall last year, his current ADP assumes that he will bounce back to almost peak levels. The steals might, the homers probably not, which just makes him a more expensive Lorenzo Cain.

FEB 21: The suppressed value of sophomores

Baseball Forecaster readers will not be surprised that I opened this piece discussing my man-crush on Ryan McMahon (pictured). This was a prelude to remind readers that not all rookies hit the ground running: “History is littered with superstars who struggled as rookies only to find their true talent level in year No. 2. Greg Maddux went 6-14 with a 4.52 ERA in his rookie year. Teammate Tom Glavine went 7-17 with a 4.56 ERA. Mike Schmidt batted .196. Adrian Beltre hit .215. Mariano Rivera had an ERA of 5.51. Even Clayton Kershaw had a 4.26 ERA as a rookie.” Then I discuss a half dozen of 2018’s rookie disappointments. 

FEB 28: Why Draft & Hold leagues are the truest test of skill

If our goal is to get the truest gauge of our ability of project player performance, we can’t be playing around with fluid rosters. The money line: “Every player we add to our team during the season means we’re eliminating one player we likely rostered through more careful analysis.” The answer is to participate in 50-round D&H leagues, which forces you to really do your off-season homework. You can’t be micro-managing your roster during the season every time your pitcher gets bombed or your starting shortstop goes 0-14.

MAR 7: The marketplace is not so smart

“I looked back at 2018 and tracked the average draft position rankings from the NFBC and compared them to how the players actually finished. The results are startling.” I charted the results over 50 rounds, looking at the percentage of picks that finished at par, with a profit, at a loss of three rounds or less, and complete busts. The trends over the course of the draft were striking, with “clearly identifiable points in the draft when things took sharp turns.” Suffice to say, the ADPs have little connection to reality after Round 11.