The challenge of reaching innings minimums

This is my weekly piece from ESPN Insider.

Back in 2010, there were 45 starting pitchers who threw at least 200 innings, led by Roy Halladay with 250.2. At the end of that list were journeymen like Jon Garland and Rodrigo Lopez. Even they managed to throw 200 innings.

By 2015, the number of 200-innning hurlers had dropped to 28. One year later, it plummeted further, to 15. In 2017, there were just 15 pitchers once again who eclipsed 200 innings, let by Chris Sale (pictured) with 214.1.

Injuries, relief specialization and the increasing practice of removing pitchers before they face the opposing batting order for the third time are all feeding into this trend. The latter factor is likely to become more widespread, which could further cut into pitcher innings.

This has a huge impact on our fantasy teams.

For one, pitchers are getting fewer wins. In 2017, Corey Kluber led all of baseball with just 18 victories. Aside from strike-shortened seasons, no other year in baseball history failed to produce even one 19-game winner.

But the lack of wins affects all fantasy teams equally. A falling tide lowers all boats, as it were.

The bigger impact is on teams reaching their minimum innings requirement.

Back in the early days when Rotisserie Baseball didn’t include the strikeouts category, it was a successful strategy to load up your pitching staff with relievers only. You could win the saves, ERA and WHIP categories, which would be enough to claim a title with even an average offense. That is what spurred the implementation of a minimum innings requirement.

These days, the 5×5 game’s inclusion of strikeouts blunts the need for a minimum, but most leagues still require at least 900-1,000 innings from a pitching staff.

When there were 45 deep inning starters to choose from, meeting the minimum was pretty easy. You could do something like this:

SP1     225
SP2     200
SP3     175
SP4     150
SP5     150
SP6     125
RP7     65
RP8     65
RP9     65

Total   1,220

There were plenty of 200-inning arms to go around. Now with only 15 in the entire player pool, and possibly dropping, teams are faced with going without any anchor arms.

Consider: the average starting pitcher went only 5.5 innings in 2017, the lowest level in history. If that average starter manages to stay healthy all year and get his normal 34 starts, that equates to only 187 innings.

Add in the fact that there are more relief pitchers than ever, and they are easier to fit onto our rosters. The 7/2 starter-to-reliever ratio has already evolved to 6/3 and could easily slide to 5/4, particularly in AL/NL-only and deeper leagues. If I had the choice between a Chad Green or Chris Devenski and any starter on the Miami Marlins, I’d easily opt for the middle reliever.

So, let’s assume that our starters’ innings decline down the line and we supplant the bottom-feeders with relievers, we could be facing something like this:

SP1     187
SP2     175
SP3     150
SP4     125
SP5     100
SP6     80
RP7     65
RP8     65
RP9     65

Total   1,012

At this point, we are treading perilously close to that 1,000 inning minimum.

You might think you can easily overcome this. I thought so too. Then I looked at my Mixed League Tout Wars team, and I’m a little more worried about a 1,000 inning minimum:

                    Proj IP
Carlos Carrasco         203
Zack Greinke            189
Zach Godley             174
Steven Matz             152
Jack Flaherty           123
Brad Peacock             87
Ken Giles                65
Fernando Rodney          58
Walker Buehler           51
TOTAL                 1,102

The roster spots occupied by Buehler and Flaherty have innings upside but are risky and depend on the success of both young arms. I fully intend to backfill those roster spots as necessary, but what reserve pick do I put in their place: the innings of a No. 4 starter like Andrew Triggs or a reliever like Ryan Madson? It makes a big difference.

For those who have not yet drafted, you need to keep the innings question on your radar. The 200-IP studs will be pricey but are worth the investment this year.

For those who have already drafted, you need to keep a pulse on this as well. Given the massive roster churn that teams will navigate over the next six months, you need to be cognizant of how many innings your staff is accumulating each week.

In leagues with 1,000 inning minimums, your pitchers should be tossing at least 40 IP per week. Six-inning outings from five of your starters only gets you to 30. You need another 10 innings from the rest of your staff.

And that only gets you to 1,040. You need to build a bigger buffer. Can you do 45 innings per week? That gets you to 1,170. You might need to maintain an even better pace to be safe. You never know when your 200-inning stud will hit the disabled list.

The last thing you want to be doing is agonizing during September. You don’t want to be pumping innings into your staff to reach your minimum, and likely putting your ratios at risk with Marlins starters. Plan ahead.