The benefit of waiting on BABS under-performers

by Patrick Cloghessy 

Javier Baez, Andrew Benintendi and Eddie Rosario are top 10 fantasy bats.  Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett and Jesus Aguilar make it inside the top 30. Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer and Blake Treinen are top 15 pitchers.

Should we have known? Could we have known?  We miss on players all the time.  Without fail, some (all?) of these misses stay with us, fomenting angry urges (or is it just me?). This is all ex-post. Someone once said, “Fantasy sports are an exercise in self-loathing.” Totally relatable. Aside from winning, no balm can soothe this feeling. Each year we say, “never again.”  Yet here we are.

Projecting players with precision is fallible. Hindsight tempts us to revisit player evaluations to see what we missed. Javier Baez (PW,S+,AV) is the top earning bat in the NL. At the draft, Baez held (p,s) and an ADP of 103.  All players listed above have similar profiles: good players who blew through their ceilings to elite levels. There is no use in blaming BABS for not seeing it.

Remember the Age 27 Breakout?  Debunked long ago, this was an attempt to determine who would rise to fantasy stardom. This can be an exercise in futility. Baseball is not recursive.

BABS knows better than to categorize players by arbitrary age designations. Statistical variance is whimsical enough to reject anecdotal methodology. Where does this leave us? Disgustedly throwing up our hands is not an option.

We can start by focusing on the present.   

In this age of information overload, it is easy to miss something. The great stories of 2018 are pounded into our consciousness with seemingly relentless frequency. Sometimes, one of these stories is instructive for reasons other than the surface level deification.

Matt Carpenter has been on fire. His recent surge has garnered POTW honors and shares of team records. To us, he is making a public service announcement: exercise excruciating patience, and beware recency bias.  

Herein lies a story:

• Carpenter breaks out in 2015.  
• Proves ‘15 was no fluke with a strong (albeit injury-prone) 2016.
• Is a top 75 pick in 2017.
• Misses some spring training, later injures shoulder.
• His 2017 gets remembered for a subpar August/September.
• Carpenter’s finishes 2017 with better counting stats and a higher AB total than 2016.
• Enters 2018 with ADP 187.
• Struggles through the first six weeks of 2018.
• Gets white-hot. Currently on pace for 38 HR and over 100 runs scored.

BABS never questioned Matt Carpenter’s skills. At the 2018 draft, she tabbed him as a great value at ADP 187 with a rating of (P+,a*). During his early slump, Carpenter even consulted the St. Louis nerds for help! Those with patience and willpower (and roster space!) have reaped handsome rewards.

Context and mitigating circumstances need to be considered, but there are other under-performers who could recoup skills they have shown in the past. Is help on the way?  

(BABS assets listed reflect pre-season projections)

Michael Conforto (P+,a*) started the season on the shelf with a shoulder injury.  Recently showing signs of life. Could his shoulder be limbering up?

Daniel Murphy (p,A+) also missed a good chunk of the early season due to injury. June’s 50 AB yielded a .471 OPS, July’s 53 AB… .813 so far.  

Paul DeJong (PW,a) again, injuries are the main culprit. Only 209 AB to date.

Carlos Gonzalez (p,a – pictured) has seen ample AB in June and July while flashing skills after an uneven Mar/Apr/May.

Rhys Hoskins (P+,a*) has not been a disaster.  He did miss time with the jaw injury, and still owns the skills to make a run at his preseason draft position (49 ADP).

Miguel Sano (P+) is working his back at AAA Rochester after being sent down earlier this season.

Carlos Carrasco (ER,KK) skills are surging in July after rocky start.

Robbie Ray (ER,KK) did carry negative regression risk, tempering things a bit.

Chris Archer (e,KK), perennial chaser of xERA, is at it again this season.

Masahiro Tanaka’s (ER,k)  gopheritis has long been his bugaboo.

We see these names and know they haven’t lived up to BABS’ pre-season expectations. She still believes in their assets. The Cardinals’ crew of data analysts seem to use a similar philosophy. We can too.