Taking BABS to an auction
by Doug Gruber
BABS hopes that you have memorized her asset targets by now… 49 total assets across 23 roster positions. 35 from 14 hitters, 14 from our starting pitchers, and two save assets from our RPs. But when it comes time for an auction, BABS flashes a huge smile, knowing we have access to the entire player pool in order to achieve these objectives.
In January, Pat Cloghessy gave us an accounting of the BABS pool…please re-read that article and have your BABS spreadsheet handy. Pat told us there are 11 triple asset players for hitters; 22 more with speed plus one other asset; and, 51 power/average guys. For pitchers, there are only 23 full-time SPs who bring dual assets and another 36 mid-time SPs with above average skills in both Ks and ERA. Nineteen relief pitchers combine at least one extreme pitching skill with a projected asset in saves. In total, that is 84 hitters, 78 pitchers. We need 14 and 9 of those, respectively, within our $260 budget.
Can we get what we need? BABS says let’s go for it!
Let’s start at the top. Counting extreme skill assets (+) as two assets, there are 5 hitters who possess four BABS assets. Big names…Betts, Trout, Story, Ramirez, Yelich. In a snake draft, we likely would only get one of these at most. In an auction, however, BABS says this is the ultimate opportunity to “Reach for the Stars.” We will begin our roster with the two players from this group with the lowest AAV: Yelich and Story.
On the pitching side, BABS lists three stud starting pitchers: Sale (E+,K+ | inj-), DeGrom (E+,KK) and Scherzer (ER,K+). We will pick DeGrom (pictured), opting for the liability free ledger over the additional Sale K asset. We will also add a few dollars to his AAV for budget purposes to help ensure we land a SP Star.
BABS also recognizes that the catcher position is extremely shallow. There are only two catchers with multi-assets in the entire pool. J.T. Realmuto (p,AV) is the star. We will add him to our roster and, like we did with DeGrom, we will add money to Realmuto’s AAV for our budget.
That makes four stars…two first round bats, a staff anchor, plus the best catcher. $125 in total, 13 assets. With those stars identified and using a blank BABS spreadsheet from the Members Only center, we can now put together our total auction plan. Here is an example:
Using the most recent AAV, plus our additional star budget allowance, this plan allows us to acquire 23 multi-asset players for $260, while accumulating 54 total assets, surpassing easily the 47 BABS minimum asset target! Our offense exceeds the targets in power and the scarcer speed category. Pitching exceeds both ER and K minimums, albeit with slightly less than the FT innings requirements. The total spending is reasonably balanced between hitting ($163) and pitching ($97). Important, we have also remained below the total liability targets for injury and experience. BABS is proud!
Looking closer, seven hitters bring extreme (+) skills, well balanced across the three categories. In several cases, we have selected members from asset classes who the market perhaps is overlooking. For example, we are targeting Jesus Aguilar from the (P+,a) asset group, as opposed to more pricey classmates like Judge and Stanton. In the (S+,a) group, Amed Rosario is less expensive than Trea Turner or Mallex Smith, yet BABS says all three have equivalent skill sets. Randall Grichuk is grouped with Khris Davis and Matt Olson as (P+) but can be acquired for a fraction of the cost. We have also included some decidedly skilled BABS players who are being pushed to the end game, including a pair of Dodgers in Joc Pederson (PW,a) and Kiki Hernandez (p,s,a).
On the pitching side, BABS says Patrick Corbin has comparable (ER,KK) skills to the more popular, and more extravagant, options like Verlander and Kluber. We have also selected reasonably priced, highly capable, reliable arms to round out our SP roster. For our closers, Kirby Yates has the job and the skills, yet is being discounted by the market. BABS rates Seranthony Dominguez as an elite arm (E+,K+) in the same group as Jansen, Chapman and others. For only $5, he could be a profit source even in an uncertain bullpen role in Philadelphia.
You might have other BABS players that you prefer. Grab a blank BABS spreadsheet and build a roster as you want it. You will need to go further and have your spreadsheet highlighted with alternatives at all positions, since we know auctions will not unfold exactly as we hope. And the reserve round is our opportunity to stockpile additional BABS assets, to give us more roster flexibility, depth and upside.
BABS digs the auctions! She also loves Classic Rock. As you head to your auction with your BABS auction plan in hand, perhaps play a classic Rolling Stones track, and let Jagger remind us, “You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need!” Together with BABS, perhaps you will get what you need to win your auction championship!
ED NOTE: The team shown here is only an example of what you can assemble using our estimated average market values. Note that the values in your league might vary. For instance, in the Tout Wars Mixed league that drafted this past weekend, this group of players would have cost you (or me) $330. While many of the players went for $1-$3 more, the major impact came from late draft bidding wars for Carlos Santana and Randal Grichuk, who were bought for $20 and $13, respectively. Every draft has its own dynamic.
I’m sure BABS works fine in a redraft mixed league auction but when you are in an AL-only or NL-only keeper league auction your available top BABS players would only be 25% or less I would estimate. This is not to say BABS is not good in my format, it is just a lot harder to win. But it is also why I eschew mixed leagues where everyone can draft an all-star team.
Agree with David’s comment about the difference between mixed leagues vs single leagues. In 12-team single leagues, the end of auction pickups players are unlikely to have an “F” or “M” in playing time; and while they may have one asset good luck find any with more than one.
Or if they have an “M”of “F” for PT, they’ll have no assets, see Odubel Herrera or Brandon Crawford.
That said, in my NL auction, BABS is my bible. I don’t look at projections until the auction is over.
OK, I got seven of the players named on this “ideal” list this past weekend, so now I feel better!
Well this is a “Stars and Scrubs” drafting strategy, so you can’t take individual positions out of context and consider the pick “ideal”. For instance, Joc Pederson is a fit because he is (in a mixed league) likely available at $1 — and you need some $1 players to make salary room for the “Stars” (Yelich, Story) and B-List “Stars” (Turner, Aguilar).
What you want to compare is not the players, but the overall assets and liabilities you acquired. How did your other 16 picks compare in that regard. If the tally on the balance sheet is similar, you did well. If not, it might be interesting to look at the players you drafted with fewer assets. Did you overlook someone? Were key players bid up (or kept)?
Are there BABS asset/liability targets for 12 team NL or AL 4×4 auction leagues?
Well, that’s actually something I want to bring up. Reviewing my team there is too much risk on the hitting side. But all of it is on players taken late in the draft. (For example, Avisail Garcia was taken at pick 381.) Do I really care as much if my liabilities are concentrated in the lower and more replaceable rounds? Should these risk categories be weighted somehow, like 3 units if taken in the first third of the draft, 2 units in the middle part, and then just 1 unit in the final rounds. I still get to take on so much risk, but it’s distributed depending on where the player was drafted.
I don’t have any INJ players until after the 10th round. Shouldn’t that be a consideration? Ryu is so much more replaceable than Sale and costs so much less that it seems “unfair” that I am penalized as much for taking on Ryu in the 15th round as I am Sale in the first round or Kershaw in the fifth.
Great article. Some good r n r from the Stones will definitely pump up your draft, with “Start Me Up” as you get your first pick. Then as it’s going along underneath everything have “Mother’s ( Shandler’s ) Little Helper ” playing. Midway thru crank up ” Happy” as you take triple threat Kiki Hernandez. In the later rounds as you contiuneu to add depth to your team have “As Tears Go By”, “Under my Thumb”, or “Shattered” playing to dig it in to your competition. As you take that last pick Mick and the boys can serenade with either “As Tears Go By”, “Out of Time” or “It’s All Over Now.” About the only other thing to add is a end of draft shot of JWB. Here’s to great drafting!
In Ron’s ebook he states that the target for NL/AL Only leagues is 30 asset units.
I have used BABS for the past 2 years. Not sure exactly what my breakdown was in previous years but I have always exceed the 30 target. Below are my targets for this year.
Pw – 9
Sp – 4
Av – 9
Er – 4
K – 4
Sv – 2
Hope that helps.
The BABS targets for AL/NL-only 12 team leagues are on the bottom of the worksheet, right under the 15 team mixed targets. In this sort of league, the pockets of similar players is smaller, but BABS can still help locate bargains. Last year, for instance, BABS steered me to deGrom, Flaherty, Milokas, which I got at (relative) bargain prices compared to what other pitchers in their group went for.
BABS is also useful in the endgame, when you are filling out the back of your roster with $1 and $2 dregs. You can go for the no playing time skill guy or go with the no assess but no liability guy.
I think it does make sense to weigh INJ liability. It certainly matters more if an irreplaceable star player goes down (e.g. Kershaw) than if it is a replacement level scrub. Coming up with an exact formula would be tough, but I think you can make judgement calls like you suggest. It is certainly defensible to pick up a skilled/injury-prone player late and hope for the best. (In my league, you can only reserve a player via injury, ineligibility, or trade, so it can actually be an advantage to have a injury-prone replacement level pitcher — when they go down, there is usually an overlooked sleeper to pick up in season.)
I don’t quite understand where the steals asset for Mitch Garver comes from. He stole a handful of bases back in single A ball, but over the past three seasons across AA, AAA and the majors he played 330 games with a total of 3 stolen bases.
As I understand it, it’s not really a SB rating; it’s a Speed rating. Slow-pokes can’t steal bases-it’s not happening. But faster guys can potentially get some SBs. They may chose not to even try, but they have the potential. And that’s what the Sp rating is indicating.
Thanks for the reply. That is interesting. It seems like the other skills are much more directly translatable to statistics, but I guess a player can have above average speed and still have zero stolen bases due to many other factors. If true that would discount that asset somewhat.
The BABS ratings are related more so with the underlying skill (or lack thereof) than an actual stat. Last year Altuve was coming off 2 straight 24 HR performances, but he had no Power Asset. I questioned this, why he didn’t at least have a [p] rating. The answer I got was the underlying skills didn’t support it, they pointed to a player with less than average power skills. That one it hit the mark.
Thanks!
Great article. Unfortunately, my long-term, legacy league is an NL-only snake draft. I’ve worked through the chapter of the book on BABS in Snake Drafts, but it seems a bit out of date (not just the specific players, which is understandable, but the market trends, such as discussing highly-skilled pitchers as 4th round assets).
More importantly, the BABS in Snake Drafts chapter doesn’t really help much in working with less-than-top-tier assets down the draft. Other than identifying skills to collect and liabilities to avoid, which is the primary function of the BABS tables, how does an owner actually USE BABS as the draft progresses?