Surprise pitchers who could be for real

This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider.

There is a reason why four starting pitchers had first round ADPs last month. Elite pitching is precious and scarce. So if there is any hint that some new stars could be emerging, free agent foragers will be all over them.

Once again, he who hesitates is lost.

As with batters, some early surprise performances are clearly outliers, some are clearly for real and some, well, who knows? Skills metrics, history and contextual changes are helpful in finding explanations. With starting pitchers, we can also look towards the opposition. With only 3-4 outings in the books, a soft schedule can artificially boost a pitcher’s numbers.

The following starting pitchers are off to unusually good starts. Which ones are for real? (Minimum three starts)

Trevor Bauer (pictured) had a 3.15 ERA with solid peripherals in the second half of last year, leading many analysts to buy in for 2018. His current 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP seem to be rewarding that decision. However, a 4.04 xFIP is less optimistic, and with two of his three starts against Kansas City and Detroit, it’s too soon to expect his good fortune to continue.

Jose Berrios’ minor league numbers had Twins fans looking forward to their next savior. But after bombing out in his MLB debut, his follow-up showed only moderate growth. Are his current 2.18 ERA and 0.63 WHIP the breakout we’ve been waiting for? It’s too early to tell. While his skills metrics look great, he struggled against the Mariners, the only winning team he’s faced so far. At minimum, we can say that there are signs of continuing growth.

Dylan Bundy hurled 30 innings, struck out 40, walked only two and allowed no earned runs back in Class-A Delmarva in 2012; from that point, greatness was expected. Injuries and ineffectiveness have derailed him in the years since, but that only makes his current 1.40 ERA all that more intriguing. Despite a slight decline in velocity, his support metrics say it’s for real. The fact that three of his four starts have been against Minnesota, Houston and Boston makes it even more interesting.

Gerrit Cole has already posted some fine seasons, but injuries and inconsistency have marked his career. Are his 1.29 ERA and 0.67 WHIP precursors to a breakout in Houston? Not so fast. His 69 percent first pitch strike rate and 19 percent swinging strike rate are off the charts, but consider the teams he’s faced. Texas (twice) and San Diego are a combined 13-21. Cole should have a solid year but let’s see how he fares first against some real competition.

Patrick Corbin’s numbers (2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) may be an early sign that the Chase Field humidor is working. In his two home starts, he struck out 20 and walked two in 13 innings, then struggled a bit on the road in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Corbin’s metrics are a huge leap from his history and bear further watching. For what it’s worth, Zacks Greinke and Godley are demonstrating similar home-road splits. Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker are not.

Ian Kennedy had become a fantasy non-entity after last year’s 5.38 ERA and declining skills profile. But his current 1.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP harken back to better times. His 3.54 xFIP indicates some obvious regression and puts his current performance on par with his 2014-2015 output. And with two of his three starts against solid competition, it’s possible that there is still some gas in the tank at 33.

Joey Lucchesi has a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, and has allowed only one earned run in his last three starts. With 25 strikeouts in 22 innings and a 2.63 xFIP, it sure looks like it’s for real. But it’s still only four starts and the aggregate record of his opposition has been just shy of .500. His quick ascension from the minors makes him interesting, but not someone for whom you’d empty your FAAB coffers. Yet.

Sean Manaea had a solid rookie year but then took a step back in 2017. His early 1.63 ERA and 0.72 WHIP seem like signs of a return to earlier expectations. Despite the success, his underlying skills metrics are not as dominating. His velocity and first pitch strike rate both show decline from even last year’s disappointment. Be cautious.

Rick Porcello is one year removed from a Cy Young Award, but after a disappointing 2017 season, are his current 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP indicators of a rebound? Not likely. Two of his outings were against the Rays, and in his other game, he was staked to an early 6-0 lead in a getaway game for the Yankees. His skills metrics indicate he will likely regress to his typical ERA around 3.75.

Jameson Taillon is one of the reasons why the Pirates are off to such a hot start. His 0.89 ERA and 0.69 WHIP are other-worldy, but are boosted by a .160 BABIP and 92 percent strand rate; his 3.14 xFIP is more representative of the underlying skill. Still, two of his three starts were against the Reds and Marlins, against whom he hurled 15 shutout innings and allowed just five hits. Regression is coming.

There are several other pitchers who are off to good starts but whose support metrics are soft, presaging a decline. These include Chad Bettis, Andrew Cashner, Jakob Junis, Aaron Nola, Chris Stratton and Trevor Williams.