Starters offer stable vets at the top, but lots of health risk

17 Comments

1. Allan Caan on February 23, 2018 at 11:02 am

   On the BABS spreadsheet page from 2/19 you wrote ” I am finding little use for the color bars at all, and may remove them eventually.” I hope you don’t remove the color bars. It is the first indicator I use in bidding for players during an auction.

   
   
   
2. shandler on February 23, 2018 at 11:21 am

   The issue is, now that BABS is including mid-timers within each asset group, the colored bars are less useful. For instance, mid-timers like Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are both listed within the green tier reserved for $20-ish players. If they were full-timers, then they would be worth that price, but as mid-timers they are not. You can still use the bars, but you have to be more careful.

   
   
   
3. Jin Chun on February 23, 2018 at 4:00 pm

   It appears Paxton, Alex Wood, Garrett Richards cohort gets double dinged with M PT and “INJ”. Also don’t understand why Tanaka has a M yet no inj risk rating whatsoever?

   
   
   
4. shandler on February 23, 2018 at 4:51 pm

   It’s all driven by anticipated playing time, regardless of Liabilities. Tanaka has not yet proven he is a 180+ IP pitcher.

   
   
   
5. Andrew on February 24, 2018 at 1:03 pm

   I agree that the colors are helpful, especially when the pace of an auction or draft is fast. Suggestion… keep the mid-timers under the colors, but color them in light orange (i.e., caution) or some other color. This will put them in their proper asset class but the full-timers will stand out as the $20-ish players in your example.

   So, you’d have:

   dark green
   light orange
   mid-green
   light orange
   light green
   light orange
   white

   
   
   
6. Andrew on February 24, 2018 at 1:06 pm

   So an otherwise full-timer (or someone who should be a full-timer) that has had injuries to limit his innings becomes a mid-timer with no injury liabilities? Not sure I follow. Are hitters and pitchers treated differently in that regard?

   
   
   
7. shandler on February 24, 2018 at 11:25 pm

   No. A full-timer whose injury history reduces his PT expectation (batter or pitcher) will be listed as a mid-timer (or part-timer) but will retain his injury liability. But there are batters (platooners, bench, etc.) who are just projected for lower PT. And starting pitchers who are lower in the rotation — #3,4,5 starters — who are not expected to reach the 180 IP level that constitutes the full-timer grade.

   
   
   
8. shandler on February 24, 2018 at 11:27 pm

   It’s not that clean. There will be overlap in market values between a certain green level and the light orange group above them. I’ll have to think about this. No changes for 2018 anyway.

   
   
   
9. fairboto on February 26, 2018 at 3:40 pm

   Ron,

   I notice some differences in your ratings as compared to those in Rotolab (e.g. Bumgartner ER, k vs ER, KK in rotolab). Will rotolab ratings update in the future?

   Thanks
   Todd

   
   
   
10. shandler on February 26, 2018 at 3:53 pm

    RotoLab pulls its data from our database reports. The spreadsheet calculates its ratings independently so there may be some rare variations when a player is right on the cusp of moving from one level to another.

    
    
    
11. Andrew on February 26, 2018 at 5:14 pm

    Maybe it’s just me, but I’m not sure I understand the differences between the database reports and the spreadsheet. Could you elaborate?

    
    
    
12. shandler on February 26, 2018 at 5:33 pm

    They are essentially the same thing. The database allows you to extract different slices of the data (AL/NL-only, alpha listings, etc.) and see player histories. The master spreadsheet is prettier, has some color-coding, and integrates batters and pitchers (the database keeps batters and pitchers separate), though that integration is more art than science.

    
    
    
13. Greg Heller on March 1, 2018 at 9:40 pm

    Ron,
    Based on this, do you like the idea of drafting Kershaw and Maeda? I figure every missed Kershaw inning is an additional 2/3 inning for Maeda. Then I backfill with a high caliber middle reliever when Kershaw hits the DL, which he will.

    
    
    
14. shandler on March 1, 2018 at 9:42 pm

    It’s not bad, though odds are Maeda will have his own rotation spot.

    
    
    
15. James OConnor on March 2, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    Why are IP not an asset group? don’t a larger amount of innings matter? I’d rather have an ER guy with 200 IP over a E+ guy who pitches 150 for example, he would have a bigger impact on overall ERA

    
    
    
16. shandler on March 2, 2018 at 2:02 pm

    Innings ARE an asset group. Playing time is the first character in the BABS rating. We do list Full-time and mid-timers next to each other because injuries make the playing time expectations more fluid. But we always advise to draft full-timers before mid-timers.

    
    
    
17. James OConnor on March 2, 2018 at 2:29 pm

    I guess I was just thinking that within the full-timer group, there would be some SP with 210 IP and some with, say 160 that might not be explained, or fully explained, by a single factor like injury risk. For example, you suss out Ks into a separate category or any of the hitter counting categories separately. It is understood that F vs. M have more opportunities to produce counting stats. Similarly, within the F hitter group, some hitters will have a couple hundred more plate appearances than others depending on team context, hitting at the top of the order vs. at the bottom of the order etc., so someone hitting .300 in 625 AB is more valuable in avg. than someone hitting .315 in 475 AB.