Spend deep, or not, for elite 1B skills in 2018
As always, this is a position loaded with excellent power options and good batting average foundation players. The nice thing is that you don’t need to pay big for the skills that this group offers. Sure, it would be nice to own some of the top names – and do feel free to invest, they’re worth it – but there is so much talent further down the board that you don’t have to spend big.
There are 13 extreme power options (up from 10 last year), depending upon how much BA advantage or disadvantage you want to build into your roster. There are 15 full-timers with significant or better power, which is up from 13 last year but still down from 21 in 2016.
There is plenty of power and batting effectiveness for everyone. Don’t skimp here.
Here are the BABS ratings for the firstbasemen who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness)
LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)
Regardless of what the marketplace thinks, the trio at the top of this board are the best firstbasemen in the game. Behind them is an interesting asset group populated by some underrated elite power sources. Their respective ADPs reflect their levels of under-achievement – each has their own excuse – but I’d be more than happy to tuck any of them into a corner spot at these prices.
There are a few players that BABS simply does not like, particularly at the level that we tend to draft them. Paul Goldschmidt (pictured) is one of them. BABS has never been a believer in his speed skills, attributing his stolen base output solely to him being given a greener light on the basepaths. He has defied her for several years, but last year’s output could be a sign that the ride may be ending.
Frankly, I don’t know what to make of it. Manager Torey Lovullo doesn’t make as much use of the running game (Arizona steals were down 25 per cent from 2016). The market is still drafting Goldschmidt as if he is a guaranteed 20-plus SB source. Without those bags, he’s Kris Bryant. That’s still darned good, but Bryant is not being drafted #3 overall. I would not pay $40 for Goldschmidt; I’d have to think twice at $35 too.
The (P+) group still offers elite level power and in today’s environment, these types are worth the price. Similar to the (P+,a) group above, they are all terrific corner infield options should you decide to invest in a stud firstbasemen on top. And honestly, you could do worse by choosing one as your frontliner should you opt to beef up at other positions first.
I love the (PW,a) group. Everyone will be drafting Edwin Encarnacion as their frontliner when they could do just as well with Justin Smoak 90 picks later. The (p,AV) group is deep with lots of options too. Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu have the cachet, but from a skills basis, they are the same player as Justin Bour and Yonder Alonso.
Okay, even I have a tough time believing that Alonso and Rizzo are interchangeable. However, Rizzo’s power metrics were pedestrian last year, which could indicate some regression. Alonso did take a step up. Remember that these groups represent a range of statistical variability. Trust BABS.
There are fewer opportunities to leverage the marketplace as you go further down the list. Still, there are many mid-time and part-time power sources that you can use to fill your reserve list.
Trust BABS? A week after getting caught in the sack with RotoLab. Hmmm… I love this discussion, it is similar to an email I got from Ron earlier this year when I was still building out the BABS module. It’s what convinced me to go full bore with BABS this year in my home league. Part of that is experimental, I do want to see how it feels to lean strictly on BABS in a draft, so I will know where to take the BABS module next. But more so, I’m starting to be convinced that BABS greatest strength is unearthing bargains and pointing where to look. When I look at a traditional ranked list it doesn’t tell me near as much about the second and third tier players other than they are farther down the list and worth $20 less. But seeing Smoak and Encarnacion with the same underlying skills and no age liability for Smoak, tells me more. I’ll be flagging some of these type as bargains, and going after other types of players earlier where there is not as much meat in their Asset group.
I totally agree Merv. The bargains seem to stand out in BABS. I just fake drafted a team in Rotolab using BABS, going after some players that I am targeting, and what I think their $ value will be in my leagues auction based on past $results/ADP position. I built my team soley using BABS, and then looked at my teams projected stats based on the HQ database, and my team finishes in the top 3 (mostly in 1st) in all statistical categories based on last years categorical results. I’m looking forward to relying only on BABS in this years drafts. She truly is a mistress! And it’s my first year using rotolab. WOW, what a product you have developed Merv! I’m learning more and more playing with it everyday.
Just wondering how these sheets and valuations change for OBP leagues, like TOUT? Any chance you’d share the sheets you used in the TOUT mixed auction last year? If I’m correct, these ADP’s and BAB’s groupings would alter the landscape. Too, is there a good source for ADPs using OBP?
“But more so, I’m starting to be convinced that BABS greatest strength is unearthing bargains and pointing where to look”
I’m with you 100% here. I love building my draft from the bottom up—finding the late round/low cost players I want leaving the big bucks for the best values up top. If I know who my keepers are (6 of a 32 man roster) and I can identify about 10 ‘values’ and 5-10 end-game players—I’ll still need 5-10 bigger money ($10+ guys) players, I wont know who they are yet—that’s where the auction comes into play.
I just re-order the rankings for my home league (OBP and SLG, no AVG). Lower average guys a bit, raise power guys a bit, lower “-” guys a bit, and raise “*”.
Hosmer (68) vs. Mauer (387) jumps out at me. I’ve somehow always ended up with Mauer on the cheap and been happy, so nice to see something other than my gut saying that. No one, and I mean no one other than his mother, likes Mauer.
Sure, I get this, but a lot of the gold in the process is connected to adp’s
I’ve been defending Mauer since he signed the huge deal. Everyone would’ve hated him if he took more $ to go to BOS or NYY. But he doesn’t hit the long ball they say. Is it possible to overpaid yet underrated?…yes
I used the standard BABS sheets for Tout last year. The ADPs are important but only if they reflect the drafting tendencies of YOUR league. I’ll be writing more about this in a week or so, but the range around each ADP is pretty wide so you have to make accommodations for that when you plan. Making some manual adjustments for OBP like Sean notes is probably the best you can do.
hey all…I did take Carpenter last year,….did not work out well. but I really think he was injured. but cant prove it by # the games he played. (he did have power, and I am expecting a bonus this year rebound)
curious if anyone knows more about it?
secondly…and I do not mean any harm, but I cant figure how to use roto during my draft. it is just me 76 yo…and I dont seem to have the agility. absolutely everyone I know loves it! I wish I could get a partner to help during the draft…we only have 90 seconds to draft a player, and I just cant do it fast enough…or just maybe I am doing it wrong? Merv, do you think it is not just for me?
thx Martin
also, Ron, do you think we could put an edit button on these replies? or is it somehow here, and I do not see it? not complaining ….lol, but would also love check sp button before sending.
ps…love BABS and love Ron…so not trying to be a pain!
Lets go BABS…love her.
Martin
Agree re Carpenter – he has suffered from nagging injuries the last two years (oblique, back, shoulder, etc…) that, while not leading to lengthy DL stints, have most likely affected his on-field performance such that his roto results have not matched the BABS love. I actually have penciled in an “inj-” next to his name on my BABS sheet. Can’t ignore it.
Martin, Contact me at info@rotolab.com
I sent a note to tech. No promises – busy time.
ty back to BABS
M
Yep, I’d put both Carpenter and Miguel Cabrera down as injury risks headed into this season.