Some final BABS speculations
by Doug Gruber
Over the past few years, BABS has correctly assessed the potential for players to post statistics that were better than expected. Last year, she nailed players like Trevor Story and Blake Snell. Here are a few speculations who might exceed expectations this year.
Stephen Piscotty is included in the (p,a) asset group after hitting a career high 27 HRs with a .267 BA in his first full season in Oakland. But looking a bit deeper, Piscotty took his game to another level in the 2nd half, with 20 of his 27 home runs and a .281 average. Further, his underlying skills suggested that the 2H power was real, and the BA could have been even higher. Piscotty might have the tools to advance to (PW,AV) during this season.
Jonathan Villar (SB) has been an inconsistent performer over the last few years, and is recognized by BABS for his significant speed, but not much else. In Villar’s one stable season with Milwaukee in 2016, he posted exceptional numbers — 62 SBs, 19 dingers and a .285 average in nearly 600 ABs. His lack of plate skills cost him playing time in 2017-18, and an eventual trade to Baltimore. Perhaps a return to a full-time role, in a hitters park, with a “what do we have to lose?” green light could result in a return to prior form. If he does, a (S+,a) rating during 2019, with double digit HRs as a bonus, might be possible.
Pittsburgh’s Corey Dickerson (p,AV – pictured) adjusted his approach last year to significantly improve his contact percent. The result was his first .300 season since his days in Colorado, albeit at the expense of his home run levels from the previous two seasons. In the 2nd half, however, Dickerson not only maintained elite plate skills, but also showed increases in his power metrics closer to 2016-17 levels and the best speed skills of his career. We will speculate on Dickerson becoming a triple asset player (PW,s,AV) during 2019.
For pitchers, BABS rates Miles Mikolas (ER) as having significant ERA skills, but league average at best for dominance, as he fanned only 146 batters in over 200 IPs. During his time in Japan, Mikolas developed a multi-pitch repertoire. He also seemed to get stronger and more comfortable in his new home as the season progressed, including increases in swinging strikes to go along with his outstanding control and a ground ball tilt. Let’s hazard a guess that Mikolas improves upon last season and moves into the (ER,k) group this season, with perhaps on the verge of (E+) abilities.
BABS has Mike Clevinger (e,k) rated behind the other Cleveland aces Kluber, Bauer and Carrasco, all who are rated as (ER,KK). Indians newcomer Shane Bieber (ER,k) is also ranked ahead of him. Perhaps that is motivation enough, but we will speculate that Clevinger grows further and joins the (ER,KK) group, based on last year’s foundation of his first 200 IP season, improvements on his 2nd half K/9 rate of nearly 11, and further strides in his improved control.
Finally, we know that there is something magical going on in Houston with regards to its pitchers. Verlander, Cole, Peacock, and ex-Astro Morton all demonstrated skills growth on their relocation to Houston, and have earned inclusion is the BABS (ER,KK) club. Collin McHugh enters this season rated (e,k) while also re-entering the starting rotation. Last year, McHugh significantly improved upon his skills, resulting in an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00 and a K/9 rate approaching twelve, albeit in the pen. We will speculate and say McHugh continues this trend and becomes the next Astro hurler to elevate to (ER,KK) status.
Best of luck to our readers as you complete your final drafts this week. All the best!
Ron, this is the interesting part to me. There is nothing BABS indicates that shows any of what you just talked about. You took your views of players and manually upgraded their BABS ratings in certain categories. Aren’t these skills that are being assessed? So, shouldn’t they either be in a skill set or not. And how should we go about doing what you just did. I don’t think the recommendation is for readers to override the skills, is it? I read the book in year one and don’t recall seeing that in year two. My point is if you are right about the players you just listed, it had nothing to do with BABS.
That’s why they’re called speculations, and why I’d wait to run a piece like this until after most drafts have already taken place.
I’m curious about what is essentially, the inverse issue: The reduction of a player’s “skill” rating. For example, on the day of my draft (3/23) Brian Dozier was listed as PW/a/*. When I updated my Rotolab software the next day, Dozier was p/a/*. Was this a software error or an actual reduction in Dozier’s skill rating? If the latter, why would the rating change (especially so late in spring training/draft season)?
The last update we made was on 3/20 and there should not have been any change from the prior update.
I’m showing “PW” in the 3/3 CSV file and “p” in the 3/20 CSV file. Maybe the CSV exporter rounded it off?
That’s the change I saw. No clue as to why. If it was some tech glitch, so be it. That happens. If it was an actually downgrade in Dozier’s skill rating, I’m curious about why that would happen — principally so I better understand the BAABs methodology.