September surgers hold hope for 2020

by Pat Cloghessy

We need to talk about Tommy Edman (S+). A former 6th round pick out of Stanford, Edman’s calling card has always been speed. Across two levels in 2018, Edman hit a career-high seven HR in 518 AB, with 30 SB. Between AAA and the majors this season, he has 18 HR in 507 AB.

In years past, whispers of PED usage may have been uttered. Today, the explanation of his power surge seems simple: it’s the baseball. Edman appears to have benefited from the introduction of the Major League ball into AAA, and then at the big league level. Fantasy players are not complaining, as Tommy has been a September Stud, carrying many teams to money finishes. 

September success is no guarantee of future stardom, but a strong finish can boost a player’s stock the following season. After all, it’s the final and most recent data point. An upwards pointing arrow can and will inform the draft market. Whether these fantastic finishes will influence BABS’ assessment remains to be seen. But for some players with already small samples, a big month could nudge their assets in a positive direction. 

Will any of these batters benefit from blistering Septembers?

Depending on the source, Cavan Biggio (-AV) was somewhere between the Blue Jays’ 10th and 12th best prospect entering 2019. Despite their initial reticence to promote Vladimir Guererro, Jr., Toronto has since been willing to give their upper tier prospects opportunities to prove their worth. Biggio struggled from his promotion through the end of August, hence the (-AV) liability. In September, he has improved across the board, measuring top-10 in the league in BB% (17.4), top 25 in ISO (.299), with a .304/.430/.594. He needs to cut down on the whiffs, but at minimum Biggio has become an interesting player for 2020. 

More highly touted, particularly in fantasy circles, was Garret Hampson (SB|-AV). After falling flat on his face in April, Hampson was demoted. He was recalled in June, becoming a part-time player. With the Rockies falling out of playoff contention, Hampson was awarded a September audition. In this last month, he has displayed impressive bat-to-ball skills (16.2 K%) and the speed that fantasy players were pining for back in March (nine SB). He has even popped five homers while displaying positional versatility. As it stands now, Hampson will be eligible in most leagues at 2B/OF. Some less restrictive setups will have him at SS, too. Maybe the hype was too much too soon.

Kyle Schwarber (PW) is more of a known commodity. Big power, poor batting average, high strikeout totals, poor defense, and subpar splits vs. LHP. In years past, this combination led to lower AB totals, suppressing his counting stats. In 2019, Schwarber has appeared in 152 games with 599 plate appearances. This has pushed his runs scored north of 80 and RBI over 90. Maybe he has smashed the glass ceiling of being a platoon player (.783 OPS vs LHP is a career high). In September alone, Schwarbs has the 11th best wRC+ in the league (173). His 25.5 K% in the final month is right in line with his season-long rate, which continues a three-year trend in a positive direction (30.9/27.5/25.4). Is there more in the tank?

Dripping with talent, Eloy Jimenez (p|-AV) has started to show it at the major league level. The September RBI leader so far, Eloy (pictured) also sits in the top 10 in HR, ISO, OPS and wRC+. This is the type of player he has been throughout his minor league career. A word of caution: The relatively low BB% (4.2) and 25.3 K% point to a free swinger with work to do. But if this is just the raw version…yikes. How high can he fly?

Austin Meadows (PW,s,a) needs no introduction. He may have already cemented his status as a player on the verge prior to the last ~30 days. But would it surprise anyone to learn that Meadows has been the best batter in baseball for the month of September? It’s true, by some metrics. His offensive WAR of 15.8 is tops in the sport this month. Meadows’ 1.263 OPS is second only to Alex Bregman. A 14.4 BB% and 14.4 K% show that he is seeing the ball extremely well. Austin’s 230 wRC+ ties him for the highest mark in baseball since September 1. He got off to a great start this season, and has finished even stronger. As a triple asset threat, Meadows is in the conversation as one of the top 25 bats off the board in 2020.