Premonitions, and other final brain flakes

At this time of year, everyone is out with their bold predictions. For some writers, it’s an exercise in tossing spaghetti against a wall to see what sticks. At Baseball HQ, I used to conduct what I called a Longshot Caucus, which was a bit more analytically sound, linking together some conditional possibilities.

For me, it’s more personal. After more than three decades of watching hundreds of overlapping careers and trends, I see things. It’s not like Sixth Sense things (not usually, anyway; sometimes I do see careers die). It’s not as supportable as the output of a rigorously-constructed forecasting model. But often there is enough contextual or speculative noise around a potential new reality that I can’t ignore it. I think: “Nobody is projecting this but it still could happen…”

I’ll call them premonitions. Here are a bunch of them. Some you’ve heard before. Some not.

Paul Goldschmidt is the first 1Bman off the board, mostly because of his steals. As I described at the First Pitch Forum events, SBs are a product of skill and opportunity. BABS does not see the skills (and he’s continued to defy her). But this year, the opportunity may not come either. New D’backs manager, Torey Lovullo, has a minor league managerial track record of not embracing the running game. Early support: In March 2016, the D’backs stole 36 bases. Goldy had three. This year? The D’backs have stolen 21 bases. Goldy none. In fact, Goldschmidt has had at least one SB attempt in every March since he’s been in the Majors. Not this year. He is one first round player who will not return first round value this year.

At several of the First Pitch stops, I asked attendees if anyone was all-in on Clayton Kershaw. Consistently, at least half the group would raise their hands. I’m not on that bandwagon. Back issues are scary. The fact that he looked vintage after being out for two months is not convincing to me. The argument that 150 innings of Kershaw is still more valuable than 220 innings of anyone else – not convincing either. (Who is going to be backfilling those 70 innings, anyway, and how much will those innings depress the value of that roster spot?). More convincing is the fact that I asked the same question at First Pitch Los Angeles and only a smattering of hands went up. I asked why; they responded: “His back.” If hometown fans are not all-in, I’m not all-in. It was quite a feat for Kershaw to return first round value last year; his luck runs out in 2017.

Buster Posey is the first catcher off the board because he’s always been the first catcher off the board. But he was not the top earner last year. Still, everyone is drafting him first. Maybe last year was a sign that his body is wearing down. Naysayers will point to the fact that he gets some time at 1B. But maybe that’s not relevant. Jonathan Lucroy seems better positioned to claim the No. 1 spot. For my money, I have shares of Willson Contreras all over the place. Posey owners will take a loss on their investment this year.

New dad Clay Buchholz is awful. Except, if you look past 2016, you see a skill set that generated a skills-based ERA in the 3.00s for three straight years. Some players just need a change of scenery and I hear he likes cheesesteak better than baked beans.

Here are the home run career years (majors and minors) for key Rockies’ players. Asterisked totals were put up in partial seasons: Charlie Blackmon (29), Nolan Arenado (42), Carlos Gonzalez (40), Trevor Story (27*), David Dahl (25*), Mark Reynolds (44), Tommy Murphy (24), Ian Desmond (25). “Once you display a skill, you own it.” That’s 200-plus HR potential from just eight players. If new manager Bud Black, who knows pitching, can figure out Coors Field for his staff, this team could make a run for the division title.

Mark Reynolds, 20+ HRs. Skill meets opportunity meets desperation.

Dexter Fowler has consistently fallen short of my expectations. When he was in Colorado, I projected BIG things. He didn’t come through. I believe St. Louis is the type of club that can get the best out of him. He’ll be the lead-off hitter on my Scoresheet team and, while the Cardinals probably still won’t run much, he should pace the team in bags.

Hedging and hoping, hedging and hoping. That’s what we’ve been doing all month when it comes to David Price. Enough already. Would someone take a stand? Look at the data. What are the odds? Play those odds. Here, watch: Price will spend more time on the DL then on the Red Sox this year. And this is coming from someone who has Price as his anchor starter in the FSTA experts league (that drafted back in January).

Biggest disappointment this year? Cleveland. Kipnis hurt. Brantley, Salazar and Carrasco always hurt. Encarnacion letdown. Chisenhall? Austin Jackson?? Post-Series psychological letdown. Biggest short-term surprise? Minnesota. Consider our opinions one year ago about Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios and Byung Ho Park (pictured). Yes, 2016 was a disaster but their skills just didn’t disappear.

Buy Aaron Hicks. That Yankees outfield is an injury waiting to happen.

Spring training stats don’t mean much to me, other than identifying hurt players who might be healthy. As such, these are the only players for whom their March numbers will have me bidding an extra buck: Brandon Drury, Alex Gordon, Chris Owings and David Peralta. Notice something here? If not for their disaster of a pitching staff, I would definitely be betting the over on Arizona wins (current line at 78.5).

Speaking of betting, I’ve been pretty up front about not possessing the gambling gene. I’ve also never placed a sportsbook bet, mostly because I thought it might compromise the objectivity of my writing. But at this point of my career, if you don’t trust me by now, there is nothing I can really do about it. So this year, I am putting money down here:

Atlanta – 74.5 OVER
Colorado – 80.5 OVER
Detroit – 82.5 OVER
LA Angels – 79.5 UNDER
LA Dodgers – 94 UNDER
St Louis – 84.5 OVER

These are not touts. This is just me telling you what I am doing.

Some might think this makes me a hypocrite in that I often diss DFS. But that’s a different game. There, it’s only gambling if you enter tournaments without using an advanced analytical model and submit fewer than 500 lineups. Otherwise, it’s clearly a game of skill. And perfectly legal.

The final BABS Master List is now posted here. Good luck this weekend.