Potential early 2019 sleepers

by Chris Doyle

With the bulk of the 2018 fantasy season in the rearview mirror, you’re likely in one of two camps: competing for a title or throwing in the towel.

(There’s also a purgatory where you realistically don’t have a chance at winning but aren’t near the bottom either. Let’s hope you’re not there. There’s nothing worse than mediocrity.)

We’re all too familiar with the players that will be going high in next spring’s drafts, but there are some interesting names that have popped up in the latest BABS update that are worthy of keeping a close eye on as we head down the stretch. These guys could very well be undervalued come springtime and provide immense value should they continue their upward trajectory.

Mallex Smith (M, S+, AV) always possessed elite speed, and with a starting gig locked down in Tampa he’s put it to good use with 26 SB through 416 PA. Not only that, he’s used his legs to help him get on base as well. The biggest boon for a base stealer is opportunity. Smith has used a solid 82% contact rate, excellent bunting ability and an improving eye (9% walk rate, up from 8% in 2017) to reach base at a .374 clip, affording him plenty of chances to swipe a bag. There’s no reason to think Smith won’t be setting the table next season for the Rays. In a fantasy game currently starved for speed, Smith is a legitimate threat to steal 40 bases over an entire season.

What do we have in Jesus Aguilar (F, P+, AV)? It would be easy to write off 2018 as a fluke but all signs point to true advancement of skills. Increased contact in the zone, more walks, fewer strikeouts, and harder contact are all there. Playing time is no longer an issue either. Where does a guy like this get drafted next year? In what’s been a bit of a down year for first basemen, Aguilar ranks fourth in wRC+ at 146, just a shade behind Freddie Freeman (149) and Paul Goldschmidt (151). Overall he’s 12th, in a tie with Manny Machado. At this point a 4th-5th round price tag doesn’t seem like a reach. It’s still a long way from happening but we could be witnessing the second coming of Nelson Cruz.

Eugenio Suarez (F, PW, AV) gets too little respect in the fantasy community and, quite frankly, it’s puzzling. After increasing his output across the board from 2016 to 2017, Suarez has continued his growth in 2018. He’s already set new career highs in homers (28) and RBI (92) while flirting with a .300 average. He’s locked into a team-friendly deal that sees him play half his games in a hitter’s park, and he’s just 27 years old. If he continues to be under-appreciated next spring you’ve got yourself a top-five third sacker for what will likely be a bargain price.

Jose Peraza (F, s, AV) is a perfect example of a post-hype sleeper. The speedster was once touted as top of the order material but struggled at the plate in 2017 after a successful cameo in 2016. Peraza has made strides this season, sitting at .292/.335/.410 heading into this weekend’s action. Peraza has added a touch of pop to his game with a career-high 8 HR that’s in part due to a change in approach: he’s traded ground balls for fly balls and line drives. He’s also walking more and striking out less, posting an absurd 96% contact rate within the strike zone. The speed is there, so if he continues to hit for average and a bit of power to close out the season, he’s Whit Merrifield or Elvis Andrus at a lower price.

Given a choice between Trea Turner and Ketel Marte it’s a unanimous pick, but BABS sees no difference. Both are rated as (F, S+, a) and the price tags are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Marte’s numbers don’t jump off the page but BABS is a believer in his skills, and for that reason he’s someone to watch over the last month of the season. He’s a high-contact hitter who hits a few too many ground balls to generate a ton of power but we’ve seen approach changes happen before. At just 24, Marte still has time to develop and could be under-appreciated come draft day.

Small sample size alert or potential fantasy contributor? David Bote (p, AV) has been a great find for the Cubs in Kris Bryant’s absence, posting an .851 OPS though 117 PA. Bote had been ranked inside the Cubs top 30 prospects by some, but he wasn’t a household name by any means. That said, his brief major league stint hasn’t strayed too far from what he was doing at Triple-A prior to his callup (.836 OPS), which is a good thing. Where Bote fits long term is a good question, but the Cubs seem to like him both at the plate and in the field. It’s worth monitoring him through September to see what happens once Bryant returns, but regardless he could be a nice little endgame flyer in 2019. Remember, draft for skills, not for playing time.