Our overflowing disabled lists
This is my ESPN Insider column for the week.
When we draft our teams each year, we count on the higher-ranked players to be more productive, more reliable and to spend more time on the field than on the disabled list.
It’s a valiant expectation. But history shows that the level of attrition among baseball’s top players is extreme. Of the players ranked in the Top 300 since 2009, the number who have lost playing time due to injuries, demotions and suspensions has ranged from a low of 44% (2010) to a high of 53% (2014).
The eight year average is 48%. That’s 144 of 300 players who have provided fewer plate appearances and innings than we all projected. The primary driver? Injuries. In fantasy terms, about 10-12 players on your roster have ended up on the DL at some point each season.
That figure is over a full season of play. It probably comes as no surprise to learn that 2017 is on pace to far surpass that number. Through six weeks of the season, 28% of baseball’s Top 300 players have already lost playing time, overwhelmingly due to DL stays. It’s an unprecedented level, at least since 2009 when I started keeping track.
At this rate, the entire Top 300 would potentially visit the DL at some point during the season. That won’t happen, but 2014’s record of 53% is definitely in jeopardy.
This is not a complete surprise. Back on March 29, I wrote:
“Major League Baseball’s enactment of a new 10-day disabled list… effectively reduces the barrier of entry to get a player onto the DL, but the back-end hasn’t changed. So a player can stay on the DL for as long as a team needs him to be there.
To recap: It is now easier to get placed on the DL but no more restrictive to come off of it… The end result will be an increase in the number of players who will be placed on the DL, and likely the number of DL days overall. It is possible that we might see last year’s record total eclipsed and perhaps push 35,000 days, or even more.”
Admittedly, the 10-day DL is not completely to blame. Aside from a few instances where teams have seemingly used the DL to manage their pitching rotation, most of the players would have likely ended up on a 15-day DL anyway. That’s small consolation. If there is any saving’s grace to this situation, it’s that the attrition rate has been spread fairly evenly across the top 300. Look:
Top 50 (24% attrition)
The players at the very top of the ADPs have stayed relatively healthy. Trea Turner (No. 10) lost a small amount of time, though his performance has not been first-round-worthy. Josh Donaldson (11), Madison Bumgarner (14) and Noah Syndergaard (18) are the bigger fish lost. Trevor Story (28) and Gary Sanchez (47) were less-experienced players who drafters were counting on.
No. 51-100 (24% attrition)
A trio of closers have stymied their owners’ bullpens – Zach Britton (58), Mark Melancon (67) and Roberto Osuna (79) – though Melancon’s DL stint should be short. Longer-term losses include Yoenis Cespedes (54) and David Price (91). Ian Desmond (72) and J.D. Martinez (85) have just returned after missing all of April.
No. 101-150 (24% attrition)
Fully half of this group’s DL denizens are ranked between Nos. 124 and 134. David Dahl (125) and Adam Eaton (128) have the largest impact. Jason Kipnis (132) just returned. Those holding out hope for a return to form from Felix Hernandez (134) may be disappointed. Matt Harvey (149) is here too.
No. 151-200 (32% attrition)
The pace picks up here with a large group of third tier starters going down – James Paxton (155), Sean Manaea (166), Jon Gray (173), Steven Matz (178), Aaron Nola (189) and J.A. Happ (197).
No. 201-250 (22% attrition)
Several demotions are mixed in with the DL stays in this group. Jharrel Cotton (227), Blake Snell (245) and Leonys Martin (249) are all regrouping in the minors. Alex Reyes (205), Drew Smyly (222) and Tom Murphy (247) have had long-term DL impact.
No. 251-300 (28% attrition)
An eclectic assortment of marginal players round out the list. Didi Gregorius (275) spent April on the DL. Wilson Ramos (289) is still some time away from returning. Jeanmar Gomez (290) probably helps his owners more by being on the DL. And who knows if we’ll ever see Jung-ho Kang (294) this year?
How should fantasy leaguers deal with this new, higher-risk environment?
– Stockpile talent. If you think you have enough pitching, you don’t. If you have the opportunity to acquire talent that might not fill an immediate need but could come in handy later, do it. If you have FAAB to burn, buy something; tuck it on reserve.
– Trust no lead. In the past, if you had a healthy lead in any statistical category, you’d be tempted to trade from that strength. Now, no lead is certain. If you absolutely need to deal excess, sell off players who are over-performing and likely to fade, or present more of a long-term risk.
– Remove the phrase, “but he has no path to playing time” from your vocabulary. I heard that all spring when it came to Michael Conforto. I kept saying, “get him anyway.” Drafters avoided Cody Bellinger on Draft Day because of Adrian Gonzalez. How did that work out? If you’re still counting on Jed Lowrie staying healthy all season, I’ll gladly take Franklin Barreto (.321 BA in AAA) off your hands.
Reality has become more fluid than ever. It is no longer safe to wait and react; you must be pro-active now. Expect the unexpected. Prepare.
Just accepted a trade. I sent away Pillar and Solarte for Kinsler. I had a glut of newly eligible OF: Bellinger, Belt…added to my already eligible Judge, Hamilton. I had almost 1/3 of my roster salary available, so taking on $70 for Kinsler didn’t hurt. 5X5 categories with OBP. Thinking Pillar’s gotta cool down huh?
You’d think leagues would start either adding more DL slots, or just having a larger roster…it’s almost like playing DFS now with 10 guys on the DL every matchup!
I don’t understand leagues that limit the number of players you can put on the DL. It’s bad enough that you have to deal with hurt players, but to have to choose who you can keep in order to accommodate some arbitrary limit seems unduly harsh.
We can speculate why it’s this bad all day, but I believe what this is doing is killing off the casual fantasy baseball fan and it is ultimately going to be a game that only die hards and people with a ton of time play. I’ve heard “this isn’t even fun anymore” many times already on forums and from league-mates. Casual fantasy baseball player or guy who isn’t all-in is going leave the league start at the end of this season and it will become tougher and tougher to fill openings.
We aren’t even in the summer yet! Wait until it gets hot. Fantasy Leagues are going to have a real problem with teams having DL’d players in their active lineup. Especially dynasty leagues. If your league is on a site like ESPN, you are stuck and can’t increase DL spots.
This has clearly been a frustrating year. But there is always enough players because MLB teams are always at full 25-man capacity. I have always been opposed to leagues that limit the number of DL spots and maybe that’s one thing that will change. Back in the day, that artificial DL limitation was due to system constraints but that is hardly an issue any more. Can you imagine the Mets having to decide who to cut because they were only allowed four DL spots and they have Thor, Matz, Familia, Cespedes, D’Arnaud, Cabrera and Wright all on the DL? Absurd.
Today with Freeman done, I have: Hamels, Freeman, Cespedes, Price, Maeda, Cahill…3 of them just rotting away on my bench lol
In the FSTA/SiriusXM league, my DL has Price, Smyly, Nola, Tom Murphy, Cahill, Pearce, Liriano, Bedrosian and I just got back Tony Wolters and Edinson Volquez from the DL. BUT THEY ARE ALL ON A SEPARATE DISABLED LIST.
We just expanded our DL spots to 3. We had some teams with 5+ players on DL
League I run has 4 DL spots. Main reason owners don’t want to vote more in is that this is a Salary Cap/Keeper league so owners worry about stashing to players who are on the DL as cheap keepers for the next year. we keep 6 players out of 30 with $300 cap.
However with the 10-day DL, my co-commish and I feel that we have to either add Reserve spot and $$ to our cap or more DL spots to accommodate all the injuries.
I’m curious if you lean either way for this type of league.
Take a player like Rich Hill (INJ). A manager with unlimited DL spots, can draft him and only be concerned with whatever stats would be lost due to injury time. On the other hand the manager with a limited number of DL spots has to be concerned with the lost stats plus jamming up their DL spots. This second manager has to be more concerned and cognizant of the risk element, which is a fundamental piece of the liablity portion of the BABS concept. Unlimited DL spots allows a manager to be a bit more loose and free when it comes to choosing their players. I don’t believe that this really conforms to BABS theory as well as limited DL spots.
With only 6 keeper spots, I can’t imagine how hoarding hurt players is even an issue. Would anyone really protect an injured player over a healthy player, regardless of price? And if they did decide to protect a hurt player, they are also assuming the risk that the player will return to full productivity. I see no upside here to limiting your DL.
Nah, don’t try to BABS-spin this. Limiting DL spots has nothing to do with risk – it’s an arbitrary rule that makes little sense other than to make life even more difficult for teams that have been snake-bit by injuries through no fault of their own.
Let’s talk about Rich Hill. A manager with unlimited DL spots not only has to expend precious FAAB/waiver resources to replace him, but also assumes the risk that he will perform up to expectation when he returns from the DL. HURT PLAYERS ARE NOT NECESSARILY ASSETS.
Let’s talk Freddie Freeman. Would you use one of your DL spots for him? Most people would. After all, he’s only going to be out 8-10 weeks. But Atlanta will have no incentive to rush him back and wrist injuries tend to sap power. So Freeman will likely not be very productive when he does return, and given the progress on his rehab, these issues could well filter into 2018. Having an unlimited DL still requires you to make tough decisions. If you paid $27 for him this year, is he keepable at that price?
I’m in two NL only leagues. Drafted Conforto and Bellinger in each league. Thanks for your early season analysis Ron.