A BABS Perspective on Under and Overachievers

by Chris Doyle

By now we’ve had a solid couple of months to analyze player performance. On the hitting side, we’ve seen plenty of standouts and disappointments, but when it comes to BABS’ assessments there are some clear underachievers and overachievers.

Here are six players whose performances have defied expectations, one way or another:

Underachievers

Gary Sanchez
Current: (P+ | -AV)
Preseason: (PW, AV)

It’s been an interesting start for Sanchez (pictured), the top catcher coming into the season. As BABS notes, the power has been there in spades – his .240 ISO is just a shade below his .253 mark from 2017. Yet, he’s managed to go from a significant asset in batting average to a major liability in just one third of a season. How is that possible? His contact rate has barely changed (73.8% to 72.5%) and his swinging strike rate has actually decreased by half a percent. His walk rate is the highest of his career at 12%. What appears to be sinking him is his .197 BABIP, which is presumably due for positive regression, but there are more factors involved.

By looking at his batted ball profile, one might think he’s trying to become a part of the fly ball revolution as his FB rate has gone from 36% to 44%, while his line drive rate has dropped significantly from 21% to 14% (BABIP tends to drop with more fly balls in play). This, coupled with a 23% infield fly ball rate, is wreaking havoc on his ability to hit for average. With a hard hit rate that’s decreased for the second season in a row, it’s worth keeping a close eye to see where his true talent level really is.

Jose Altuve
Current: (s, A+)
Preseason: (SB, A+)

Some might wonder where the power has gone (5 HR, .126 ISO in 277 ABs after hitting 24 HR each of the past two seasons) but it’s fair to say that the power has never really been there from a skills standpoint. BABS has only generated a power rating for Altuve once – following his 24-homer 2016 season – and this is a prime example of why owners should benefit from a system like BABS that appreciates skill and not pure numbers. If you had built your team with BABS by your side, you would have known not to rely on Altuve for power and would have made other choices to help offset that deficiency. Any power from Altuve at this point would be gravy.

In terms of speed, Altuve has stolen four bases in the last two weeks since the latest database update, so he’s already on his way to inching back up to the SB level. This is yet another reminder to trust the process when drafting.

Bryce Harper
Current: (PW, a)
Preseason: (PW, AV)

Harper’s power numbers haven’t suffered, but his batting average certainly has. After hitting .319 last season, Harper has dipped to .228 through his first 224 ABs. A paltry .216 BABIP can be partially to blame. Harper is hitting the ball harder than ever and has maintained a GB/FB ratio around 1.00, which is good news. What’s concerning is that some swing and miss has crept back into his game. His strikeout rate of 22% is the highest it’s been since 2014 when he struck out in 26% of his plate appearances, en route to his worst major league season. His swinging strike rate of 14% is identical to 2014 as well and continues a multi-year trend heading in the wrong direction. You can count on the power, but don’t go all-in on a batting average rebound just yet.

Overachievers

Javier Baez
Current: (PW, S+, AV)
Preseason: (p, s)

Everyone saw the potential in Baez right from the time he signed with the Cubs as an amateur free agent, but it’s taken years for him to finally realize it. Through his first 235 ABs this season, he’s notched 14 HR and 12 SB, which would be a near 30-30 full-season pace. His average is only .251, but his .281 BABIP is the second lowest mark in five years since he debuted in 2014. He hits too many ground balls to maintain this home run pace (his HR/FB rate is a career-best 25%) but for someone with his speed, putting the ball on the ground isn’t the worst thing. He’s 12-for-13 in the steals department and sits inside the top-50 in sprint speed. There’s significant swing and miss in his game (25% K rate, 18% swinging strike rate) but he appears to be a perennial 20-20 threat with the potential for more. If he could ever refine his approach and take a few more walks he’d be a terror on the basepaths and a fantasy stud.

Brandon Nimmo
Current: (PW, SB, AV)
Preseason: (* | av-)

What makes Nimmo’s explosion all the more impressive is that he wasn’t even ranked by BABS in her major league assessments – the pre-season rating above was a minor league one. Nimmo has become one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Mets and has defied expectations across the board. The main concern is a lack of track record in terms of power. However, if he continues to pull the ball in the air, something he didn’t do as often or as consistently in the minor leagues (42% pull rate and 46% flyball rate in 147 ABs so far) he has a chance to be a decent source of power who gets on base (14% walk rate). Combine that with some speed and you’ve got a nice little player who likely came cheap.

Jeimer Candelario
Current: (p, AV)
Preseason: (F)

The centrepiece of the Justin Wilson trade last year, Candelario has been a great addition for the Tigers as they look to push the reset button and get back on track. The 24-year-old made an impact last September and has carried over his success into the early part of 2018 with 10 HR in 213 AB. He’s certainly overachieved thus far from a BABS perspective but unfortunately the chances of sustaining this production remain iffy. A quick look at his expected stats (according to Statcast) show some negative regression could be in his future, as his .231 xBA, .439 xSLG and .332 xwOBA all check in lower than his actual marks of .258, .498 and .363, respectively. If you’re a Candelario owner he’s a player worth floating in trade offers.