On Deck in 2021

My mantra has always been, “To stand still is to move backwards.” I am never quite satisfied that we have gone as far as we can or have done as much as we could. But 2020 dealt us unique challenges that leave much of 2021 still uncertain, even now.

As noted last time, this uncertainty makes it tough to consider any significant changes to the BABS model or methodology. There are little things. As I noted last year, I have locked in the change to rate minor injury risk (inj-) as a one-half liability in your budget. I have gone through The BABS Project 3.0 ebook and made a few minor tweaks. Do still read the ebook — it is always good for foundational or refresher purposes.

The 2021 BABS Draft Plan will include four major site updates like last year, unless MLB scheduling forces us to change direction. A preliminary database posting with 2021 ratings appears now. I cannot stress enough that there is still work to be done. Playing time expectations are currently so splintered and fragmented that “no-time” players completely overwhelm the data. There are hundreds more players included in the current database than at this time last year. And yet, there are still only 162 games’ worth of innings and plate appearances (presumably) that all these bodies are claiming a stake in.

Numbers make a statement. Our current BABS database includes over 1,400 players. On the batter side, 57 percent of the players have some Experience liability. A whopping 63 percent of the pitchers are likewise too inexperienced to be considered fully formed. These numbers will overwhelm your risk budget — we need to reassess.

As you know, BABS works best with larger data samples, so the abundance of players with handfuls of playing time drags down our ability to do cogent analyses. The first thing that needs to happen is MLB deciding on team roster size for 2021. Only then can we start fitting all these PA/IP into a fixed structure. A decision on a universal DH would greatly help as well.

For now, we start here. Then we tinker as we await further instructions. It’s okay; it’s still early. But the clock is ticking.

This is a preliminary look at our editorial calendar as it stands at this moment. It could change tomorrow.

Approx. February 10: Setting the BABS Foundation

  • Database update with complete Major League BABS ratings
  • Spreadsheet update
  • Positional analyses (overview, CA, 1B, 3B, 2B, SS, OF, SP, RP)
  • Player history scan sample
  • Asset group analysis sample
  • The FISH List, maybe
  • BABS Baseball League signups
  • Reader forum
  • Mailbag

Approx. February 24: BABS Spotlight Players

  • Database and spreadsheet update
  • Best BABS targets
  • Players to pass on
  • Unmatched twins
  • High risk players going far too high
  • Player history scans
  • Asset group analyses
  • BABS Baseball League signups
  • Reader forum
  • Mailbag

Approx. March 10: BABS Game Strategies

  • Database and spreadsheet update
  • Snake draft strategies for the upcoming season
  • Auction strategies for the upcoming season
  • Strategies for other formats
  • Player history scans
  • Asset group analyses
  • BABS Baseball Leagues signup deadline
  • Reader forum
  • Mailbag

Approx. March 24: BABS Final Updates

  • Database and spreadsheet update
  • Spring training update
  • High-skilled No-timers
  • Best BABS targets update
  • 2021 Longshot Caucus
  • Experts league draft results
  • How to use BABS during the season
  • Reader forum
  • Mailbag

In-Season: While the primary BABS content ends on Opening Day, we will continue to publish in-season database updates several times during the course of the year. These are obviously driven by smaller data samples and should be viewed as no more than rough ratings.

Thank you for joining us in 2021

This is Ron Shandler and I continue to stand behind everything on BABSbaseball.com. Our great writers, led by Doug Gruber and Pat Cloghessy, will continue to provide their unique insights and styles to the articles here. And BABS remains fully dedicated to providing you with the best roster foundation for your teams in 2021. These are challenging times and we’ll be doing our best to respond to the uncertainty this season.

Stay tuned…