Not-so-bold May projections

This is my ESPN Insider column for the week. It was written on Monday, posted on Tuesday.

So, April is now over. Thank goodness for that. We are living in a brand new world where last year’s Cy Young contenders are sporting 5.00-plus ERAs and the Colorado Rockies are in first place. Intuitively, we know that this can’t keep up but we still micro-analyze every small-sample data point.

Since we can’t resist, we might as well use April as a faulty, yet accessible point of reference to see where we go from here.

These are my not-so-bold projections for May:

Jose Altuve is doing everything we expect of him, and more, but odds are he will experience a mini-slump later this month. With a BABIP over .400 and a career-low 74% contact rate, his current .326 average is being driven by speed alone. He’ll continue to soar against some soft competition during the first half of May but the reckoning could come beginning May 19 against the Indians, against whom he’s only batted .250 over the past two seasons.

That same soft competition will help one of the Astros’ elite-skilled pitchers push his ERA down this month. Lance McCullers’ (pictured) peripherals are superb and his xFIP is nearly two runs lower than his 4.34 ERA. Over his next three starts: 22 innings, 15 hits, 7 walks, 27 strikeouts, 2.45 ERA.

Jake Arrieta’s velocity is down for the second straight year, but he’s still managing to strike out opposing batters at a career-high pace. The problem is that he’s been keeping the ball up a bit, leading to some early homers. It won’t get any better in the short term, especially with a start in Colorado – but the turning point could be on May 14 in St. Louis.

Speaking of Colorado, the Rockies could be for real. With Ian Desmond returning, and David Dahl not far behind, the Rockies are poised to jump back into the upper tier of the run-scoring leader board. Bud Black will do his best to cobble together a rotation, but their league-leading 12 saves are no fluke. Their May is evenly split between tough and soft competitors, but most of the tough series are in Coors, where the Rocks have a fighting chance with their bats.

Starlin Castro’s statistical profile doesn’t look all that different from last year, when he batted .270. A .390 BABIP is pumping up his .352 average. This weekend’s series in Wrigley Field may begin the correction.

Maikel Franco is struggling to stay over the Mendoza Line but you wouldn’t know it by his peripherals. Career highs in contact rate and hard-hit ball rate are being suppressed by a .210 BABIP. He may continue to struggle against some tough pitchers for the next few weeks but could break out when the Phillies visit Texas mid-month.

Despite an excellent March, Alex Gordon continues to struggle. With career low power metrics, hard hit ball rate and BABIP, along with a 57% ground ball rate, there is no sign of a turnaround. This week’s series against the White Sox is a critical turning point.

Speaking of the White Sox, their 13-10 record comes back to earth this month. Starters James Shields, Derek Holland and Miguel Gonzalez all have xFIP levels two or more runs higher than their current ERAs. The crash begins this weekend in Baltimore.

It’s incredibly tempting to hold onto Jeremy Hellickson and his 1.80 ERA, but it’s all a mirage. A .210 BABIP and 82% strand rate immediately scream regression; 11 strikeouts in 30 innings and a drop in velocity seal the deal. I’ll bet that he doesn’t get out of the fifth inning in Tuesday night’s start in Wrigley. [ED: 4 innings, 6 ER. I should be making millions playing DFS.]

Jonathan Lucroy has a career low BABIP and a career high contact rate, so his .206 average won’t last. He’ll start pushing up slowly over the next few weeks but then explode in mid-month when the Rangers host the Phillies.

Kenta Maeda’s excellent start against the Phillies last week will begin his march back to relevancy. His first pitch strike rate, swinging strike rate, and velocity are all a touch better than last year, but a 57% strand rate has killed his ERA. Watch him completely shut down the Padres on Friday.

You would think that a player with a near-90% contact rate, 65% ground ball rate and great speed would manage to keep his batting average higher than .184. A .210 BABIP hurts Ben Revere, and his speed skills may be past peak, but there is still some upside here. A few more at-bats during the Angels’ mid-month White Sox series could light a small fire.

Blake Snell seems to be holding his own with a 3.42 ERA, but everything about his support metrics raises a massive red flag. He might escape his next two starts against Miami and Kansas City, but there could be a massacre in Fenway mid-month.

Joey Votto batted .350 last week, boosting his current BA to .256. Expect that to continue as his average normalizes this month. He should have an explosive series at home against the Yankees next week.

Thirty-eight year old Jayson Werth looks like his vintage 20something self but all is not what it seems. His contact rate is at an 11-year low, his hard contact is at an all-time low and his .360 BABIP is slightly elevated. Soft competition at the beginning of the month should keep him afloat but he could hit a bump during a mid-month series in Pittsburgh.

Data is from BaseballHQ.com.