No path to playing time
This year, members have access to all the columns I write for ESPN Insider. They appear here every Friday. Many will include a BABS-relevant postscript. Enjoy.
Living in Port St. Lucie, FL, I have been able to follow the career of Michael Conforto since he played for the Class-A St. Lucie Mets. I think he is going to be a solid major leaguer, if not a future All Star. I believe the Mets feel the same way. He is one of their prime prospects; what’s more, he has already shown he has the chops to succeed in the Majors.
Of course, it hasn’t been all smooth sailing. Coming off a fine debut in 2015, he was batting .365 with four home runs last April when the wheels came off. Conforto’s batting average plummeted to .222 over the next seven weeks and he was sent down to Class AAA Las Vegas.
Over the last three months of the season, Conforto bounced back and forth from the minors to the Mets. While his Major League numbers recovered only slightly, he batted .422 with nine home runs in 128 AB in Las Vegas. Some industry analysts believe the Mets simply mishandled him in 2016.
So far this spring, Conforto is looking good. He has gotten into 15 of the 23 games the Mets have played and has posted a slash line of .327/.372/.643. That’s an elite OPS of 1.015.
But his current average draft position (ADP) is only No. 320. Going outside the top 300 makes him undraftable in a 12-team mixed league and barely draftable in a 15-teamer. In NFBC online auctions, his average price has been $2.
When I ask people why he is being drafted so low, I get two responses:
“He can’t hit left-handers.” (Maybe give him more than 62 AB to really find out.)
“He has no path to playing time.” (This is incredibly short-sighted.)
I suppose we are wired to believe that the current reality is fixed, but that’s not how the baseball season works. When we draft a player, we are not really buying the productivity for that player in his current role. We are actually buying a roster spot for six months. We might hope that player spends the entire season productively occupying his spot, but that never happens. DL stints, slumps and managerial whim can end up shuttling several players in and out of roles.
Two important facts:
- On average, when you come out of your draft, you will already have 7-8 players on your roster who have some injury risk. These will either be players who spent some time on the DL last year, have had off-season surgery or are currently nursing some miscellaneous aches and pains.
- By the end of the season, 10-12 players on your roster will have spent some time on the disabled list. With the introduction of the new 10-day DL, that number could be even higher.
The abundance of DL days opens up many opportunities for undrafted players. Thirty years ago, an average of 39 players made an appearance on a MLB roster during the course of a season. These days, the number is 52; that’s 13 more players per team fighting for a nearly fixed number of plate appearances and innings. This splintering of playing time means more chances for a good player to make an impression.
And good players can carve their own path to playing time.
History has shown how often we pass up profit opportunities because we don’t view the season as a whole. Getting mired in “no path to playing time” costs us opportunities.
Going into last year’s drafts, we all expected that Trea Turner could be an impact player, but he had no path to playing time. His ADP on Opening Day was No. 299. Gary Sanchez had an ADP of No. 480!
Back in 2012, despite being hyped as the one of the two best prospects in baseball, Mike Trout came into the season with an ADP of No. 228. Angels manager Mike Scioscia said that barring an outfield injury, the 20-year old would begin the season in the minors. With Peter Bourjos the incumbent in center field, was it so far-fetched to think that Trout might see regular work before long? Trout ended up with 559 AB, hit 30 HRs, stole 49 bases and batted .326. Bourjos didn’t.
So where is Conforto’s path to playing time? Well, Lucas Duda is not exactly an embodiment of health; a trip to the DL might move Jay Bruce to first base. Aside from the first half of 2016, Bruce has only been a .223 hitter since 2014; plus, he had a .612 OPS in CitiField last year. Yoenis Cespedes has spent time on the DL three times in the last five years and is often missing time even when he’s not on the DL. Curtis Granderson’s OPS has cracked .800 once in the last four years, and he’s now 36. This is almost too easy.
You can find cases like this all through each team’s depth charts.
Is there any doubt that Yoan Moncada is going to take over at 2B for the White Sox at some point, and likely soon? But he’s going No. 245. Why is anyone even drafting Tyler Saladino?
Think about how we viewed A.J. Reed last year at this time. He came into 2016 ranked No. 298; he’s No. 486 now. Yes, his debut was terrible, but he’s only 24 and hasn’t lost his skills. He may be behind Yulieski Gurriel at 1B, but the Cuban import is 33 and 130 AB hasn’t proven anything yet.
Is it a stretch to think that A’s prospect Franklin Barreto might make some noise this year? Currently going outside the top 500 (!), he’s behind Jed Lowrie, who’s spent the equivalent of a full season on the DL over the past two years. Can’t imagine that Adam Rosales and Joe Wendle will stand in his way.
The Brewers outfield may seem blocked off for Lewis Brinson (No. 419) but Ryan Braun remains a trade chip, Keon Broxton is unproven over a full season and Domingo Santana may be better suited to a weak-side platoon.
So many of these. It’s tough to think of Trevor Plouffe blocking Matt Chapman (No. 716) or Justin Smoak blocking Rowdy Tellez (No. 640), or Freddy Galvis blocking J.P Crawford (No. 462).
There are reverse speculations too. David Dahl might be hurt, but it’s absurd to discount him with any speculation that Gerardo Parra will hold the role once health returns. Dahl is too good.
You might say that we can only trust in what we know, and all we know is how each team’s depth chart shakes out today. But we also know there is almost a 50-50 chance that opportunities will open up, and those opportunities could yield big profits. Since this is a game of percentage plays, those are odds worth taking.
Talk about thinking outside of the box. Excellent article.
I tried this last year, mainly because I was rebuilding. At the end of the draft, instead of grabbing skill-less vets with playing time like I usually do, I just scanned the BABS list for anybody with skills, regardless if they were in the minors on opening day. Guys like Duvall, Peraza, Zach Davies. Was amazed at how many ended with significant playing time (and I ended up in the money). Planning on doing this again, think this is one of the biggest revelations here. Thanks for the pearls of wisdom.
I think this is a great article Ron, and I agree with your assessment on most of these guys.
As it pertains to Moncada though, I agree with your thinking moncada will get a fair amount of playing time. Yet, BABS does not reflect that. Can you remind me again how BABS assesses playing time, and why BABS may be showing moncada with so little.
While I know the BABS list is not a strict ranking of players, there will be people who will think to themselves (myself included) “hmm, I am only going to penetrate 250 players into the player pool, I will just eliminate from player 251 down”, and will only focus on the top 250 people, which would eliminate some really talented players, including moncada
Aaaaaak – no! If you use the list that way, it will kill you. You may only NEED to draft a few players out of each asset group – the rest would be irrelevant to you – so focusing on the top 250 will CERTAINLY miss out on tons of draftable players. BABS is not a PLAYER draft list, it is a SKILLS draft list.
As for Moncada, it is true that he is far down the list because of the uncertain playing time. But the beauty of BABS is that you can look at his rating (p,SB|AV) and see where he would slot in if he did gain PT. In his case, he rises into the Mid-timer asset group with Chris Hermann and JaCoby Jones. There is no Full-timer group with that rating, but some improvement in BA makes him VERY interesting.
Yes, thankfully as I started to really look at the spread sheet and realize the way it was intended to be used, I realized that eliminating 251 down would be a very flawed approach and didn’t do that elimination. I am not sure everyone will come to that realization.
And I am not sure if you were going for a bill the cat from the old bloom county comic strips”ack!” there or not, but if u were, well done!
Clearly, Bill the Cat.
excellent. I have been looking at Michael Taylor with Washington and Lourdes Gurriel with Toronto as players with no path, but plenty of potential opportunity.
Ron, so glad you worked your “magic” and your ESPN articles are posted here on a regular basis. Now, along with BABS your members can see how you truely “shine” in the world of Fantasy Baseball, and something as simple as this needs to be advertised to pull in more members. Keep on Truckin’
Been watching Michael A. since he got here. He’s no Conforto.
He’s older than Bryce, lacks plate discipline, and good pitchers demolish him. His success is garbage time or against weak pitching. I hope he proves me wrong, but he will not be the post-Jayson solution.
In both my AL and NL only auction draft we cannot draft players in the minors so I actually do have to cutoff players who aren’t in MLB when the season starts (draft on 4/8) I’m assuming that wouldn’t change how you would use BABS. On top of that, both leagues are keeper 12 team leagues. In only leagues with such a thin depth to draft from, plus inflation, it can make for some ugly $1 end game players, and overpriced saves guys if only 4 to choose from. Any other advice for such a shallow draft pool?
BABS is more of a challenge to use in deeper leagues, but it only reinforces the fact that smaller pockets of playing time are more random. Once you drop into the lower part of the talent pool, exhaust any above average skills that you can, then focus on Liability avoidance.
Is avoiding liabilities even more important in this type of league? I was thinking about getting a couple guys who are on DL now but will come back like a Kinsler to make my team stronger as the year goes, right price of course being the caveat.
Yes, but carefully. I’ll be writing about this strategy this week.
Ron, I cannot wait to read this. It’s tough in an only league, and even more so going into a draft in a league like mine which really restricts whats available and how to plan for it. It can be tough at times to decide on keepers such as a Roman Quinn at $3 who I’d control for ’17/’18, but don’t know for sure when he’s coming up. Is he a better gamble than a guy who may be up now, but would really offer next to nothing in statistics. While we cannot draft players in the minors, we are allowed to keep ones who were on our team the previous year at end of season. Anyway, I don’t see much coverage as a whole in the industry for super deep leagues such as mine, and look forward to what you have to say on this subject.
Hi Ron, did I miss this article? I was in Florida for 9 days and out of the loop a bit, I don’t see it, but my wife says I miss things right under my nose! Thanks!
My Tout Wars article talked about doing things like this.