Mock Draft Solitaire

In this article, Rob DiPietro mentions one of his methods for draft preparation — mock drafting solo. I’m a big proponent of that; I call it mock draft solitaire.

Essentially, you assign yourself a draft seed and then in each round, you assume that the other 11, or 14, or however many owners make their selections exactly according to ADPs. When it’s your turn, you decide who to pick based on whatever is left.

The value of this exercise is that it provides a structure to your draft prep, giving you the opportunity to play out different draft scenarios from spots in the seeding that you can control. In addition, you can play out a solitaire mock in a fraction of the time it would take you to sit through a live event, thereby allowing you to practice drafting many more times.

For non-BABSians, it’s an easy, straightforward process. BABS adds a little complexity because the draft lists are not in straight player-ranked order. But that’s why it is so valuable for us. Each pick is shaped by what BABS shows us, not what the ADPs leave for us.

I take a very structured approach to this exercise. I start with a set of ADPs, a pick chart and a blank roster sheet.

You can use any set of ADPs, but best to use those from the types of leagues you compete in. For instance, if you primarily play in the NFBC, then use those ADPs.

A pick chart is just a grid with all seeds and their numbered picks for each round. Here is one for a 12-team league:

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13
3 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
4 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37
5 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
6 72 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61
7 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
8 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85
9 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108
10 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109
11 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132
12 144 143 142 141 140 139 138 137 136 135 134 133
13 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156
14 168 167 166 165 164 163 162 161 160 159 158 157
15 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180
16 192 191 190 189 188 187 186 185 184 183 182 181
17 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
18 216 215 214 213 212 211 210 209 208 207 206 205
19 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228
20 240 239 238 237 236 235 234 233 232 231 230 229
21 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252
22 264 263 262 261 260 259 258 257 256 255 254 253
23 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276

To start your solitaire mock, pick a draft seed. Let’s say you pick seed 7. You can scan down the chart and see that you’ll be selecting players at spots 18, 31, 42, 55, 66 and so on.

To start assembling your roster, pick one player in each round. Every player you choose must be at an ADP higher than your pick number. So, if you’re the 7th seed and it’s the third round, all the players at ADPs through pick 30 are assumed to be off the board. You can pick any player slotted at ADP 31 or higher.

Then BABS steps in. She might show that a player at ADP 50 has a far higher rating than anything immediately ahead of your pick. You could wait until your next pick (42), but the distribution of talent in the pool might make that a risky decision. One of the fallacies of ADPs in general is that they reflect an accurate evaluation of the player pool – they don’t. So, if you’re in round 11 and the next best fits for your roster are both in round 13, go for it.

The exercise can also provide a helpful structure for your draft prep.

The first four rounds of most drafts are when you set the foundation for your team, but there are many ways to play it. You can start with a 5-category hitter, then grab a top rotation ace, supplement with another bat and then target a second starter. Or you can experiment with two pitchers, then two hitters. What type of team could you construct by opening with four hitters?

Each option provides a different path for the rest of your roster construction. Then, by adding in a second variable – your draft slot – you multiply the number of opportunities to experiment. Each option can be considered a different draft profile.

Here are the 14 possible draft openings for the first four rounds. (H) is a hitter, (P) is a pitcher.

        ROUNDS
       1       2       3       4
4H     H       H       H       H
3H     H       H       H       P
1P     H       H       P       H
       H       P       H       H
       P       H       H       H
2H     H       H       P       P
2P     H       P       P       H
       P       P       H       H
       P       H       H       P
1H     H       P       P       P
3P     P       H       P       P
       P       P       H       P
       P       P       P       H
4P     P       P       P       P

Conceivably, you could try each of these out for every seed in your draft, but that seems like a bit of overkill. Drafting from the No. 6 slot as opposed to the No. 7 slot is not going to provide that much variance. But spreading the exercise out to three different seeds – say, Nos. 1, 8 and 15 – would offer a bunch more potential insight. That would be the potential for 42 different draft profiles (14 openings x 3), a significant enough sample to tell you what you need to target, and when.

Needless to say, you probably have something better to do than run 42 solitaire mocks.  If you find that P P P H is simply not going to work for you, no sense continuing to try it out from different seeds.

Once you’ve finished your first roster, you can enter the stats of all the players and calculate a team total. That becomes your benchmark, or report card, against which you compare subsequent solitaires. You might find that drafting hitter-hitter-pitcher-pitcher from the 15th seed provides the potential for the best projected numbers. Or, pitcher-hitter-hitter-hitter from the top seed.

The insights that you will gain from these exercises are invaluable to understanding the player pool from a variety of perspectives. And while no draft will go chalk like a solitaire mock, these will still provide the tools for you to consider many more pick options at each stage of the draft.