Lots of saves possibilities, few guarantees

When it comes to the BABS philosophy of players being “more alike than they are different,” there is no better demonstration of this than with relief pitchers.

There are only 12 relievers right now who can be considered good bets for 30 saves. They are all blessed with elite skills, which makes them essentially interchangeable. However, there are another 32 who are in line for at least 10 saves and could move into bigger roles if the planets align. Many of them have good skills as well.

The following list includes all the prime candidates to see saves, plus other relievers who have good dual-asset skill sets. The non-save pitchers higher on the list are the better options for “roster filler that won’t hurt you” and could potentially help your ratios. In addition, given the trend of declining innings for starters, that lost playing time has to go somewhere, and that place is here.

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential)

LIABILITIES: Er (Pitching Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Experience)

There used to be about six closers on average who’d save 40-plus games each year. In 2017, that number dropped to three, which is where it stayed in 2018. However, 30-save closers have been in a free fall, dropping from 19 in 2015, to 15 in 2016, to 10 in 2017 to just eight last year. With the evolving use of bullpen arms, this is a trend that is not likely going to reverse itself to any great degree.

There has always been a good amount of turnover in the closers who amass the most saves. That means, odds are against Edwin Diaz being the No. 1 closer again this year. He might not even save 40 again, let alone 50. So the fact that he is currently the top closer off the board seems silly to me. I’d think even Craig Kimbrel would be a better bet, and he doesn’t even have a team yet.

Still, if you are going to draft a low-risk closer – ha! – you are going to have to pay.

Should you? BABS doesn’t think so. There are six relievers in the (E+,K+) asset group and any one of them has the goods to put up mega-saves, given the opportunity. Since saves are highly correlated with wins, when you buy saves, you’re also buying the team, so consider that fact.

The next group is comparably skilled, but offers no sure things. Both prime Phillies options are here; one of them will likely hit. I wouldn’t fish here for your No. 1.

Front-line options are further down the skills list. Roberto Osuna and Ken Giles (pictured) are reasonable picks before you reach the trio in the (ER,KK) asset group. If your top closer comes from here, it’s probably best to back him up from one of the higher groups with riskier (sv-) choices.

But that’s not the only place to prospect for saves.

Many of last year’s surprise closers came from the asset groups with superior skills but no clear path to saves. Here are all of last year’s relievers who were drafted for less than $10 in Tout Wars but ended up with at least 10 saves… and their 2018 BABS rating:

Pedro Strop        E+, KK
Brad Boxberger     ER, K+
A.J. Minter        ER, K+
Kirby Yates        ER, K+
Josh Hader          e, K+
Sergio Romo        ER, KK
Joakim Soria       ER, KK
Will Smith         ER, KK
Kyle Barraclough    e, KK
Keone Kela          e, KK
Hunter Strickland   e, k
Jeremy Jeffress     e
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Jose Leclerc       KK | -ER
Bud Norris          k | -ER
Robert Gsellman       | -ER
Wily Peralta          | -ER
Seranthony Dominguez   Not rated

So grab an arm with a firm role on Opening Day (or two, depending on the depth of your league), but don’t overpay. Spending $37 on a Diaz/Treinen tandem might yield just as many saves as Hand/Giles, but cost $13 more.

Then stock up on speculative skill. There is a ton of that available, and really, just about any one of those arms could end up with 30 saves given the right planetary alignment.