June 2019 BABS Update – Pitchers
by Doug Gruber
Which pitcher doesn’t belong in this threesome…Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg or Matthew Boyd? If we were talking 2019 player salaries, Boyd at only $2.4 million would be the poor boy in the this group. In the June 2019 update, BABS says that all three arms belong in the same asset group, possessing similar, significant skills (ER,KK). A closer look at Boyd’s stats says he compares quite well with the two aces, and in fact owns superior numbers in FIP (2.77), K/9 (11.2), BB/9 (1.7) and WAR (2.7).
This is just one example of comparable skill sets in the latest BABS pitcher report. With more than a third of the season in the books, what else can we highlight from our latest in-season BABS rankings?
At the top are names we would expect to see. Justin Verlander is the clear leader with the perfect (E+,K+) score. Blake Snell is the only other pitcher to earn the same (E+,K+) rating, albeit in mid-time innings due to his stint on the IL.
Not far behind are Max Scherzer and Gerritt Cole at (ER,K+), neither which are surprising. But there are several surprises near the top, and if you own one of more of these arms, you are likely feeling good about where you stand in your league pitching categories.
Going into 2018, Luis Castillo was a member of the (ER,KK) asset class, and was highly sought after in drafts. Castillo fell far short of owner expectations, with a 2018 first half ERA of nearly six runs per nine. He flashed signs of his skills late in 2018, but thus far in 2019, Castillo has taken his performance to a new level. His current grade of (E+,KK) is supported by numbers that include an ERA of 2.38, WHIP of 1.15 and 90 punch outs in 75 innings. BABS may have had it correct with Castillo’s 2018 rating!
Probably the most astonishing name in the (E+,KK) group is Jake Odorizzi. At best, Odorizzi was a reserve round pick in March drafts, who has now racked up eight wins, along with a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP through his first 12 starts. Career bests in HR/9 and strand rates have helped, but his xFIP of 4.28 says he is living the charmed life. Still, owners who acquired Odorizzi for a song (or a buck) are reaping the rewards so far.
Tampa hurler Tyler Glasnow and Padre rookie Chris Paddack are also members of the (E+.KK) class. Before going down with a forearm strain in early May, Glasnow had been flat-out dominant. A 1.86 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 6.1 K/BB rate had Rays fans and fantasy owners tickled. Hopefully his injury isn’t season-ending. Paddack has also posted great numbers, although his last two starts at Yankee Stadium and vs the NL East-leading Phillies have been rough, with two losses and nine earned runs allowed in those two outings. Still, the full body of work in his rookie season has been well beyond pre-season outlooks.
Other starting pitchers of note include Hyun-Jin Ryu and Atlanta rookie Mike Soroka, both shown in the (E+,k) group. K/9 rates in the 8-range are the only thing keeping this pair from being listed alongside the top-rated pitchers for 2019, but if you own Ryu or Soroka, it would be hard to complain about a few less Ks. And owners of Lucas Giolito (ER,KK) who were patient through April, or were astute (or brave) enough to take advantage of his waiver availability have now been treated to six consecutive outstanding performances, highlighted by a complete game shut-out at Houston, of all places.
Of course, it hasn’t all been pleasant surprises for our starting pitchers. Scrolling down the list, it doesn’t take long to find many disappointing pitchers who have current BABS ratings well below their skill sets entering 2019. Walker Buehler (e,k) is off to a slower than expected start in terms of innings pitched, strikeout rates and ERA. Perhaps his most recent performance at Arizona (8 IP, 11K, 0 BB, 2 HA, 1 ER) will be the positive sign of things to come. Carlos Carrasco (KK) has had an ERA near five, perhaps now explained with his announcement this week that he is undergoing treatment for a blood disorder that has affected his energy and fitness levels. BABS prays for the best for Cookie. Yu Darvish (KK|-ER) has maintained his strikeout rates, but has been a fantasy liability for the ratio categories. Noah Syndergaard (k|-ER) has been even worse for his fantasy owners.
From a MLB team perspective, it is easy to see from the BABS report why squads such as the Royals, Mariners and Orioles are languishing in last place in their respective divisions, and giving up runs and long balls at record paces. The lowest BABS rating for pitchers is (|-ER), and nearly all members of the starting rotations for these 3 teams own this dreadful score. KC for example has their entire starting five (Brad Keller, Homer Bailey, Danny Duffy, Jake Junis and Jorge Lopez) each rated as (|-ER). Ditto for the Mariners rotation. Note from Captain Obvious…start all of your hitters against these staffs.
For the relief pitchers, congratulations if you own one or more of the seven closers who hold the top rated (E+,K+,SV) BABS grade. Your investments have been valuable so far. Names we know well…Chapman, Diaz, Hader, Hand, Smith, Vasquez, Yates. None of these closers are big shockers from our pre-season rankings. However, several closers have been much better than most of us expected.
BABS rates four closers as (E+,K+,sv-), pitchers with comparable skills to the names above, but a small notch behind due to fewer saves to date. Hector Neris came into 2019 possessing great skills but was viewed as behind both Davis Robertson and Seranthony Dominguez as the potential Phillies closer. Along came his opportunity, and Neris has run with it. Twelve for 12 in save opportunities, 12.8 K/9, a WHIP of 0.90. Greg Holland emerged in Arizona as the guy, posting impressive numbers of a 1.31 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 9 out of 10 in save percentage. Atlanta’s Luke Jackson was not on the saves radar to begin 2019, but his 96-mph fast ball along with a wipe out slider that he throws more than 50 percent of the time has secured him the role. Ken Giles has always had extreme pitching skills, and so far, this year he has performed as an elite closer. Fifteen Ks per 9, an ERA of 1.08, only one HR allowed in 25 innings! The only thing missing has been save opportunities in Toronto, where only 11 of his 25 appearances have resulted in a save.
Finally, the conventional thinking in fantasy circles regarding closers is to seek highly skilled arms who have been granted the closer job, preferably playing for a playoff contending team. Coming into 2019, while Shane Greene had the job in Detroit, he didn’t possess closer-worthy skills and was playing for a bad Tigers squad. The results so far? BABS says Greene has demonstrated the skills (E+,KK,SV), and those owners who took a chance on him have been rewarded with 19 saves despite the Tigers only having 23 wins, along with a 1.08 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning.