In search of context, BABS heads to Vegas

by Pat Cloghessy

As a general rule, it’s important to consider the context. This is true of anything, but fantasy baseball for sure. Targeting Coors Field, or left-handed bats in Yankee Stadium are perennially projectable details. But what about team context?

Certain stats are strongly influenced by the team. Categories like runs, RBI, wins and saves all have a team connotation to them. Now, it doesn’t always take a great team to produce rosterable players, but a rising tide raises all boats.

In order to find which teams may be those rising tides, we can look to Vegas, and then BABS.

ODDS TO WIN 2019 WORLD SERIES (11/1/19)

Team	Odds
New York Yankees	6/1
Boston Red Sox	7/1
Houston Astros	7/1
Chicago Cubs	8/1
Los Angeles Dodgers	8/1
Cleveland Indians	12/1
Philadelphia Phillies	12/1
Washington Nationals	12/1
St. Louis Cardinals	15/1
Atlanta Braves	20/1
Milwaukee Brewers	20/1
New York Mets	20/1
Oakland Athletics	30/1
Tampa Bay Rays	30/1
Colorado Rockies	50/1
Minnesota Twins	50/1
Chicago White Sox	60/1
Los Angeles Angels	60/1
San Diego Padres	60/1
Cincinnati Reds	70/1
San Francisco Giants	85/1
Pittsburgh Pirates	100/1
Arizona Diamondbacks	200/1
Seattle Mariners	250/1
Texas Rangers	300/1
Toronto Blue Jays	350/1
Kansas City Royals	500/1
Miami Marlins	800/1
Baltimore Orioles	1000/1
Detroit Tigers	1000/1

Pretty obvious, right? I mean, we all could have guessed the hierarchy, or at least gotten close.  What does BABS think? Can these World Series favorites provide ample fantasy counting stats? Should we shy away from some, go all-in on others?

For this exercise we are considering each team based on how many multi-asset full and mid-time players on their rosters. This should give us a good clue as to how far “above average” the lineups, rotations, and bullpens could be. For most teams, the count on bullpen arms stopped at the top four, except in instances where the depth was overwhelming.

The Yankees check in with 14 multi-asset players. With six bats, drafting into this long lineup should provide counting stat chances. The pitching rotation has four and the bullpen five highly skilled arms. Starting pitchers on this team stand to benefit from the big offense, and if they can get through five innings, the middle relief bridge to the end of the game has BABS drooling.

The Red Sox, have two of the best, but only four mixed asset offensive players, three SP, and four RP. There is nothing wrong with buying shares in the Red Sox offense — it’s great — but maybe not as lengthy as the Yanks. Sale, Price and Porcello lead the way in the rotation.

Houston’s starting pitching has five full or mid-time guys not named Wade Miley, so the depth is there. Only Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and George Springer meet the asset threshold as hitters. The bullpen boasts one of the best skill groups in the game.

Are the Cubs overrated? The offense sports only three multiple asset bats, and the starting pitching counts just two. The relief corps is better than that, with four, but most bullpens can say the same. Some of the excitement about the Cubs is the rabid national fanbase, driving up the betting price. BABS is less certain about their prospects. It seems extra risky to enter into any shares of this team aside from Baez, Bryant and Rizzo.

The Dodgers have the same World Series odds as the Cubs, but almost double the asset talent. Los Angeles has 17 total players checking multiple BABS boxes. The offense goes seven deep, so there are pockets of offensive value. We know the Dodgers manage their pitchers. Dave Roberts has six mid-timers to work with and that’s not counting zero-timer Julio Urias. The back end is fine, with four skilled RP, and more behind that.  One might have to deal with some IL stints, but the SP is very good and with this offense the wins could come.

In a stunning development (to some), it appears that the Indians may actually have a few bats not named Ramirez or Lindor. BABS lists five multi-asset guys, which includes Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers, and newcomer Carlos Gonzalez. Maybe the end is not nigh in Cleveland. The five BABSable starting pitchers are back. The bullpen….well, does “second verse, same as the first” ring a bell? Only three RP boast skills enough to make the grade.

Philadelphia added Bryce Harper, which brought their total to four bats, two SP and five RP. This is a team on the rise, but BABS might be pumping the brakes just a bit.

After losing Harper, one might suspect that the Nats will take a step back. One might want to check the BABS assets of the Washington offense, as there are seven multitudinous members. The Nats also have three SP and just three RP in the fold. The bridge to save the city could be rickety.

St. Louis locked up Goldschmidt, the 3rd of three multi-BABS bats. The Cards have three SP and three RP, for a total of 9.

The Braves offense could hum, with five multi-skilled bats. The SP counts one (maybe 1.5) and the RP chimes in with four.

Fans in Milwaukee might feel their club is underrated. BABS counts six multiple bats, two SP (nothing new) and at least five RP. Feels a lot like last year.

Big time winter movers, the Mets have the BABSiest starting pitchers east of Cleveland, but just three bats and two-ish RP who own multiple BABS assets.

As the Vegas odds get longer, the BABS skills decrease. There are some areas that BABS finds more valuable than the sharps. Everything else being equal, it could be useful to consult the team structure when considering a draft choice or a potential trade.

One team that cannot be ignored, even at 70-1 odds: The Cincinnati Reds. The bats are eight(!) deep. This might be the longest lineup in the NL. SP has three and RP two mixed attribute players.

The long shot Detroit Tigers have just three multi-asset players, total.