I’m joining The Athletic… and an early BABS observation

The news is out… I am joining the staff of The Athletic. For those unfamiliar, TA is a subscription-based online sports magazine that boasts some of the best writers in the business. Today kicks off the launch of their new fantasy baseball section, and I’m honored to have been asked to be a contributor.

Here is what I plan to write about.

In joining TA, I will no longer be writing for ESPN.com. I have many mixed feelings about this. The folks at ESPN remain friends and they have been good to me during the five years that I was a contributor. I decided to move on because it is exciting to be a part of something new, and the writers that TA has assembled include several friends as well. For those who remember Fantasyland: The Book, the managing editor of this group is Nando DiFino. There is also Gene McCaffrey, John Sickels and Eno Sarris – who have been regulars at First Pitch Arizona – Tout Warriors Jake Ciely and Al Melchior, and several other familiar names.

What does this mean for you? The good news is that this move does not affect anything that I have been doing here at RonShandler.com. This just replaces the free-lance work I had been dong at ESPN.com.

There is some less-than-good news, however. Last year, I was permitted to republish my ESPN.com columns on this site. Although I did a fair amount of arm-twisting, TA would not agree to that. After running a subscription-based business for nearly three decades, I understand why that’s an issue for them, particularly during this early-adoption period. Perhaps that will loosen up in the future.

However, I will be permitted to excerpt my TA articles and provide occasional abstracts, which I  intend to do. In addition, TA is offering you a discount on a subscription to their service. Here are the details about that. Even before I was a part of this organization, I would have told you that it is worth every penny. In fact, one reason I was interested in joining TA because I have been a subscriber since last spring and have thoroughly enjoyed their high quality writing. You will too.

So, there’s that.

On more important business, I am in the process of slogging through my second slow draft of the season. These early drafts give me some insight into how the talent pool shakes out, and how BABS is working. I have an early observation.

For those who read my introductory essay in the Baseball Forecaster, you’ll recall that one of my missteps during The Debacle of 2018 was the number of players I rostered on multiple teams. Forget Ryan McMahon for a moment (oh, how I could), but I surmised that the stratification of the player pool had diminished the number of draft-worthy players. The smaller pool led to a bunch of roster redundancies.

After these two early drafts, I have also come to the conclusion that it’s partly BABS’ fault.

In the first draft, BABS pushed me to grab Rhys Hoskins in the 3rd round. In the second draft, when my 3rd pick came up, BABS was pretty emphatic that it had to be Hoskins again. The only other option was to grab a second starting pitcher. Rostering two starters in the first three rounds was just not my M.O. So I fought BABS on it and did something I’ve never done before. My first three picks – Jose Ramirez, Gerrit Cole (pictured) and Blake Snell.

Similarly, better BABS picks effectively closed me out of the top tiers of 2Bmen in both leagues. That left one name that bubbled up in each draft, and there was nobody else close. But I relented this time and put Jonathan Schoop on both teams.

Mallex Smith (drafted in one league) and Amed Rosario (drafted in both leagues) are two others that seemed to stare up at me from the top of the list, waiting for their moments in the sun. High-skilled relievers bubble up quickly too.

I think the unique structure of how BABS rates players and ranks asset groups tends to target certain players. I don’t think this is a flaw. Quite possibly, it is just a random result from a sample size of two. But I did want to make you aware of it.

My advice… If you are in multiple leagues, force yourself to take different players, even if that means stepping down to a lower asset group (within reason). It’s another means to spread your risk. These groups are ranked, but they can be more fluid than we realize. Just because there is a dark line underneath a group doesn’t mean that it’s a wall you can’t draft through.