Identifying first round fails

This is my weekly article from ESPN Insider.

It is possible to lose your draft in the first round, so you would expect that we'd be experts in identifying those elite players. We're not.

Over the past 14 years, our success rate at projecting which players will earn Top 15 value is about 35 percent. Our success rate at projecting who will earn Top 30 value is better, but still only about 50 percent. If we are facing nothing more than a coin flip, then it behooves us to figure out how to maximize those odds . . .

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