Identifying first round fails
This is my weekly article from ESPN Insider.
It is possible to lose your draft in the first round, so you would expect that we’d be experts in identifying those elite players. We’re not.
Over the past 14 years, our success rate at projecting which players will earn Top 15 value is about 35 percent. Our success rate at projecting who will earn Top 30 value is better, but still only about 50 percent. If we are facing nothing more than a coin flip, then it behooves us to figure out how to maximize those odds.
Some first round failures are unavoidable. Madison Bumgarner was ranked No. 14 last year, but nobody could have foreseen a dirt bike accident. Other failures might seem just as random, but sometimes we don’t react to them correctly.
For instance, could Josh Donaldson’s disappointment have been avoided? He sustained a calf injury during a workout last February and it affected him all spring. Still, he was ranked No. 11 on Draft Day. There was never any indication that he would require a long-term recovery, but the fact that he only got 16 at-bats in March might have been a tip-off.
The injury would linger for most of the first half and he entered July with only eight home runs and a .254 batting average. He more than made up for it in the second half, but his final totals still ranked him only 84th among batters at season’s end.
As much as Donaldson’s historical performance ranked him among the elite, a player nursing an injury on Opening Day should be enough of a red flag to let someone else assume the risk in the first round.
Injuries are red flags, but so are inflated expectations based on small sample sizes. In 2017, Jonathan Villar’s ADP was pushed all the way to No. 19 based on one anomalous season. Villar followed up his $39 breakout in 2016 with a $12 collapse last year. Early round selections should have more of a track record.
This year’s Top 15 currently looks like this:
- Mike Trout
- Jose Altuve
- Trea Turner
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Nolan Arenado
- Clayton Kershaw
- Charlie Blackmon
- Mookie Betts
- Bryce Harper
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Max Scherzer
- Chris Sale
- Corey Kluber
- Carlos Correa
- Kris Bryant
Most of these are justifiable and any of them could put up first round worthy numbers. However, we know up front that as many as 10 of these 15 players will not earn back their draft slot. To assess the risk, we’d need to dig deep and take unpopular positions with some of these names, but that is the only way to objectively assess the risk. Most will fail to earn first round value. Which players merit a closer look?
Mike Trout? Jose Altuve? Lock ’em in. There is a strong argument for Altuve going first, but you can’t go wrong either way.
At No. 3, Trea Turner (pictured) is a potential superstar, especially since he provides a foundation in the scarce stolen base category. Expectations have been high from the very beginning. After batting .342 with 33 steals in only 307 AB in 2016, he skyrocketed to No. 10 in last year’s drafts. But a wrist injury cut into his playing time and he finished batting .284 with 46 steals in 412 AB.
There is no question that he is a great player. But drafting him No. 3 represents a commitment to a full-time, 550 AB guarantee, a level that he has not yet achieved. Is he a first-round caliber player? Possibly, but there are several safer alternatives at No. 3, like Nolan Arenado or Charlie Blackmon.
At No. 4, Paul Goldschmidt derives his high value ranking from a combination of power production and stolen bases. Those bags declined by 44 percent last year and odds are there is more gravity than lift in that number going forward. But there is a new risk element that affects him now. Research indicates that the introduction of the humidor in Chase Field could significantly suppress production. Without playing out the games, it remains speculative, but is that a risk you want to take with the fourth overall pick?
I wrote about No. 6 Clayton Kershaw last week. Despite the possibility that his back issues could become chronic, he would need to lose over 75 innings and be replaced by a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA before the stats produced by his roster spot would fall out of the first round. Still, I’m not sure I want to trust a composite player with such an important pick.
Mookie Betts, at No. 8, might be a tad high. He earned more fantasy value in 2016 than any other player in baseball, but dropped outside the Top 25 last year. A No. 8 rating says that the marketplace believes 2016 more than 2017, but how do we know for sure?
Bryce Harper continues to confound us, but we keep drafting him in the first round. In the past five years, he has had a rank in the top 10 four times (including this year). Outside of his monster 2015 season, his final numbers have ranked him anywhere from 34th to 319th. He is currently at No. 9. Isn’t doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result the definition of insanity?
There is no question that Giancarlo Stanton always had the power to be an elite player, but he has stayed healthy for even 500 AB only three times in his seven year career. Last year’s 597 AB was far and away a career high, but ranking him at his current No. 10 says that we expect that to become his new norm. I’d be skeptical.
The pitching trio of Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber all look great at the tail end of the first round, but pitchers are historically volatile. Compare the last three years of Rotisserie earnings for these pitchers: Scherzer ($36, $37, $38), Sale ($23, $28, $41), Kluber ($21, $29, $46). Only Scherzer is a good bet to maintain; the others might regress off those highs.
Assuming some risk on your fantasy roster is important to uncover pockets of potential profit. But first round players are not where you should be looking for profit; they need to be at-par cornerstones of your team. Your only goal is to make sure your early picks don’t go belly up. For that reason, picking the right player is all about risk avoidance.
Read more of Ron’s work at RonShandler.com.
Would you feel more comfortable being able to get Harper at the beginning of the 2nd in a 10 team league? I can get him at 14th overall. I’ll be disappointed if you say “no” because this was exactly the reason I traded for him :/
Harper is fine in the second round, assuming you roster a low-risk player in Round 1.
Auction keep 8 mixed $100 total salary: Arenado 2.25,Votto 26, JD Martinez 1.75, Cruz 2.25, Pollock 2.25,
Bumgarner 4.75, Nola 3.75.
Final keeper: R Hill 5.50, Eaton 3.75, Inciarte 3.75, Conforto 1.00, Robles 1.00, A Reyes 3.75?
Top round talent available at auction with expected price: Trout $49, Harper $47, Betts $45, Kluber $42 all will fetch $40-49 draft day. Who is your last keeper selection and if you can land one which would you select?
Forgot to mention it a 12 team keeper league, all keep 8, Standard Roto 5×5, Draft and play 9 hitters (3 OF, 1 Util) and 6 Pitchers (typically 4SP,2RP). Rest of players drafted 10 round supplemental draft
“There is no question that Giancarlo Stanton always had the power to be an elite player, but he has stayed healthy for even 500 AB only three times in his seven year career. Last year’s 597 AB was far and away a career high, but ranking him at his current No. 10 says that we expect that to become his new norm. I’d be skeptical.”
If I was keymaster for a day and had one BABS dispensation, I’d ding Stanton with inj- . Considering he will go in the first round or cost $40 in every draft, it would subconsciously make you think about the point of this article.
But everyone is their own keymaster! While Stanton didn’t meet the threshold for DL days to qualify for the inj- rating, there is nothing stopping anyone from manually noting that reminder. RotoLab has that capability, right? If you think BABS is wrong, defy her. She’s your mistress, not your wife, after all.
How are folks understanding changes from year to year in BABS evaluations? For instance, last year Miguel Cabrera was in a category by himself (P+, AV+*), and this year he has dropped considerably in BABS eyes (p, av), and no risk of injury detected by BABS.
We know, of course, that there is injury risk because his herniated disks are now public record. However, unlike the example of Matt Carpenter, whose assets have not been significantly devalued by his injuries, Cabrera is not the same player he historically has been. Here we have injuries affecting remaining assets—which revises a fundamental principle of BABS in particular, and fanalytics in general: if a player demonstrates that he possesses assets, then he possesses them regardless whether his circumstances in any given year allow for their expression in his actual play on the field.
Injuries have the potential to change more than playing time.
Hit [tab], type a note, [tab] to save. Or use the [6] to flag him. But tomorrow, I’ll be back to being the lowly database court jester. Something about seeing it from the keymaster is more reassuring.
Considering Blackmon at $45 (heavy inflation…trout went for $70). But realizing last year was (probably) career best across board (no longer running) for Blackmon. DO i just keep him and his high BABS and move on?
BABS recognizes that players are not just stat-producing machines and adjusts her ratings based on contextual elements as well. It’s not just statistical history shaped by expected risk factors. She does consider that injuries have an impact on more than just playing time.
If Trout went for $70, Blackmon is a HUGE bargain at $45. If you look at their projections, side-by-side, you’ll see that the difference between each of their categories is statistically insignificant with the exception of two. Give Trout 10 more SBs. Give Blackmon 20 points of batting average. To me, that’s nearly a wash.
In a H2H points league 5 man keeper where I also have Arenado, Springer, Carrasco, Berrios and Archer would you try and trade Harper instead of one of the others, given his track record? He would fetch more, I’d guess. SP have inflated values in this league and whichever one I dropped (if I couldn’t trade one) would be drafted within a pick or two of the top. Or should I just stick with trying to trade one of these SP?
What’s the league inflation rate this year? If it is north of 10%, I don’t see how you could not keep him.
Did we skip over Arenado? His age, skill set, and production the last 3 seasons would seem to put him just a notch below Altuve and Trout for reliability as a first rounder…?
Arenado is there. Mentioned in the paragraph about him and Blackmon being better picks than Turner. The focus on the piece was on first-rounders who could fail.
I really enjoy the website here, and find BABS very useful, but have a question on her latest update. On January 22nd, Robbie Ray was listed as F, e, KK. He was ranked lower than Greinke, Nola, Castillo, Paxton, Tanaka, Wood, and Weaver. Now Robbie Ray is and F, ER, KK while those other players have gone from KK pitchers to k pitchers. While these changes are minor, they result in Ray going from the 22nd ranked starting pitcher to 10th. That can be significant to those in points leagues that favor starting pitching. I still feel good about these other pitchers listed above. I sense that maybe the gut feeling on Ray was negative and a review of some stats justified his bump up. I somehow want to trust last month’s numbers and still not draft Robbie Ray, am I just being stubborn?
Recent research on the effect of the humidor is striking. You have to elevate those D-back pitchers.
That is an interesting change of circumstances that has occurred since January. Thank you for an excellent answer. I just looked at his home/away splits last year for more clues and that supports what you’re saying. Home: 7-4, 4.08 era, 1.34 whip, 2.5 cmd, .727 OPS-against. Away: 8-1, 1.86 era, 0.98 whip, 3.7 cmd, .572 OPS-against. If the humidor erases those dampened numbers at home, that would be a huge difference. Btw, I’m sorry I missed First Pitch in New Jersey. I had some family stuff, but hope to make it next year. I’m sure it was a great presentation.
In the spirit of the closing paragraph – what would the “ideal” 1st round look like when combining value and “safety” of production? It seems like the first five picks would be some order of Trout, Altuve, Arenado, Blackmon and possibly Scherzer? Who would be the next “tier” of top flight production plus risk avoidance? If you’re picking in the later thirds/second half of the first round – you have to take SOMEONE – so risk is inevitable, possibly even with your potential cornerstone.
I’ll be writing about that for ESPN next week – and I haven’t done the research yet – but the first name atop that list would probably be Joey Votto.