How BABS sees 2021’s sudden stars

by Greg Fishwick

There are surprise stars every year, and 2021 was no exception. Keeper league GMs who have these players on their rosters may think they’re sitting pretty, but BABS has her own take. Of the following 15 surprises:

• 3 warrant caution
• 5 are best suited for trade bait.
• Only 7 are worth keeping or targeting at their current cost

Here are the asset expectations for this group, along with their liabilities, current market information, and bottom-line recommendations. They are listed in ADP order. Note that 11 of the 15 are outright regression (Rg-) candidates.

PLAYER	Assets	Liabilities	Risk$	ADP	R$	Recommendation
Luis Robert	p,SB,a	INJ,e,Rg-	7.25	18	$29	Trade/Drop/Pass
Cedric Mullins	p,SB,a	Rg-	0.25	29	$25	Keep/Target at cost
Robbie Ray	e,K+,Pk+	Nw,Rg-	0.50	46	$20	Keep/Target at cost
Tyler O’Neill	PW,s	Rg-	0.25	50	$19	Keep/Target at cost
Austin Riley	PW,a	Rg-	0.25	54	$19	Keep/Target at cost
Logan Webb	ER,k	INJ,e,Rg-	7.25	57	$18	Trade/Drop/Pass
Trevor Rogers	e,KK	E,Rg-	1.25	95	$13	Proceed w/Caution
Jonathan India	p,a,*	e	1.00	97	$13	Keep/Target at cost
Jordan Romano	ER,KK,SV	inj,e,Rg-	2.25	107	$12	Proceed w/Caution
Camilo Doval	e,K+	EX	2.00	156	$8	Keep/Target at cost
Adolis Garcia	p,s	-A,e,Rg-	4.25	161	$8	Trade/Drop/Pass
Akil Baddoo	p,SB	EX	2.00	163	$8	Proceed w/Caution
Ranger Suarez	e,k	INJ,e,Rg-	4.25	169	$8	Trade/Drop/Pass
Brandon Crawford	p,a	Rg-	0.25	200	$6	Keep/Target at cost
Chris Flexen	–	-K,e	2.00	366	$0	Trade/Drop/Pass

Luis Robert is one of the two riskiest picks in our table. He’s covered in our “High risk players going far too high” article.

Cedric Mullins (pictured) showed a lot to like last season. BABS doubts he’ll repeat his 30-HR output, but our scan shows he’s still a second-rounder, likely driven more by speed than power.

BABS is not fully convinced Robbie Ray’s 2021 gains will stick, but the switch from home games in Buffalo’s AAA hitter-friendly park to MLB pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park may offset that. If he was a bargain last season and you can keep him, rest easy. If not, make him a top target.

Tyler O’Neill and Austin Riley are two more players for whom BABS warns about potential regression, but likes their odds of strong follow-up performances.

Logan Webb is the other one of the two riskiest picks in our table. He’s also covered in our “High risk players going far too high” article.

Trevor Rogers’ regression liability stems from his xERA being a run above his ERA and lack of experience. He missed a month with back spasms and is unlikely to exceed 150 IP. The market is betting his high ceiling will overcome his relatively low risk level, which may make him a bit too costly for many fantasy GMs.

Jonathan India deserved his NL Rookie of the Year award in BABS’ eyes. She projects him for moderate impact, with an OBP bump and only a $1 risk cost for experience.

Jordan Romano’s recent finger and arm issues combined with an xERA more than a run above his ERA to make him a moderate risk at his current cost, but those presumptive saves are enticing.

Camilo Doval’s 27 MLB innings are not much to go on, but his 37 Ks caused BABS to bump up his MLE (k) rating to (K+). His only liability is Experience, but his role is in question.

Adolis Garcia showed a power surge upon arrival, then faded badly. BABS rates him at only moderate power now — and negative skill liability for batting effectiveness — which is likely less than the market hopes. That makes the 29-year-old potential trade bait if you own him.

Akil Baddoo made a favorable impression on BABS with moderate power and significant speed. His experience risk comes with his Rule 5 jump from A-ball to MLB, but the market seems to reflect that adequately.

Ranger Suarez hasn’t convinced BABS he can repeat, as his xERA was nearly two runs higher than his ERA. But his past two IL stints (COVID, quadriceps) were not arm-related, making him a good trade candidate.

Brandon Crawford may be late to the party at age 35, but BABS says “better late than never.” A skeptical market makes him a good value despite BABS’ recognizing the likelihood of some negative regression.

Chris Flexen returned from a good year in Korea to log 180 IP with an xERA a run above his ERA and too few strikeouts. As much as some fantasy leaguers might be intrigued, he has no notable impact Assets, so  he’s more of a hard pass.

Given that most of these are regression candidates, and recency bias will likely inflate their draft value, proceed with caution. Some of the risk costs can probably be built into a reasonable budget, but some might carry way too much downside.