Grab your 3Bmen early in this shallow skills pool
by Doug Gruber
The perception by many fantasy owners is that the 3B position is a deep player pool. BABS says otherwise; she tells us that the number of multi-asset players continues to fall… from 20 in 2017, to 17 last year, to only 12 for 2019.
Some of the pool evaporation is due to players no longer 3B-eligible, like Adrian Beltre (retired) and Nick Castellanos (OF only). Others have experienced skills erosion, such as Jake Lamb, Kyle Seager and Evan Longoria. To make matters worse, four of the current 12 come with the well-deserved INJ liability, and another has yet to record his first big league at bat.
Given this leak at the position, owners may want to place greater priority on the high-skilled third basemen. Let’s take a closer look at the player pool and who BABS says you should target.
| ASSETS | LIABILITIES | ||||||||||||||||||
| ADP | R$ | THIRD BASEMEN | Pos | Tm | PT | Pw | Sp | Av | * | Pk | Rg | Av | Inj | Ex | Nw | Pk | Ag | Rg | |
| 4 | $44 | Ramirez,Jose | 5 | CLE | F | p | s | A+ | * | ||||||||||
| 108 | $12 | Turner,Justin | 5 | LA | F | PW | A+ | INJ | |||||||||||
| 71 | $16 | Carpenter,Matt | 35 | STL | F | P+ | a | * | |||||||||||
| 9 | $36 | Arenado,Nolan | 5 | COL | F | PW | AV | ||||||||||||
| 35 | $23 | Bryant,Kris | 5o | CHC | F | PW | a | * | INJ | ||||||||||
| 52 | $19 | Suarez,Eugenio | 5 | CIN | F | PW | a | * | |||||||||||
| 103 | $12 | Donaldson,Josh | 5 | ATL | F | PW | a | * | INJ | Nw | |||||||||
| 45 | $20 | Rendon,Anthony | 5 | WAS | F | p | AV | * | |||||||||||
| 68 | $16 | Andujar,Miguel | 5 | NYY | F | p | AV | e | |||||||||||
| 40 | $22 | Guerrero Jr.,Vladimir | 5 | TOR | M | p | AV | EX | |||||||||||
| 152 | $9 | Moustakas,Mike | 5 | MIL | F | p | a | ||||||||||||
| 115 | $11 | Myers,Wil | o57 | SD | M | p | s | INJ | |||||||||||
| 190 | $6 | Gurriel,Yulieski | 35 | HOU | F | AV | |||||||||||||
| 738 | -$7 | Prado,Martin | 5 | MIA | M | AV | INJ | ||||||||||||
| 108 | $12 | Muncy,Max | 35 | LA | F | PW | * | e | |||||||||||
| 109 | $12 | Chapman,Matt | 5 | OAK | F | PW | e | ||||||||||||
| 227 | $5 | Sano,Miguel | 5 | MIN | F | P+ | * | AV | INJ | ||||||||||
| 117 | $11 | Profar,Jurickson | 653 | OAK | F | a | Rg | Nw | Pk | ||||||||||
| 456 | -$2 | Duffy,Matt | 5 | TAM | F | a | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 459 | -$2 | Moran,Colin | 5 | PIT | F | a | e | ||||||||||||
| 297 | $2 | Franco,Maikel | 5 | PHI | M | a | |||||||||||||
| 301 | $2 | Camargo,Johan | 5 | ATL | M | a | inj- | e | |||||||||||
| 151 | $9 | Devers,Rafael | 5 | BOS | F | p | inj- | e | |||||||||||
| 240 | $4 | Seager,Kyle | 5 | SEA | F | p | |||||||||||||
| 284 | $2 | Lamb,Jacob | 5 | ARI | F | p | * | INJ | |||||||||||
| 353 | $0 | Longoria,Evan | 5 | SF | F | p | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 590 | -$5 | Gyorko,Jedd | 5 | STL | M | p | inj- | ||||||||||||
| 271 | $3 | Anderson,Brian | 9o5 | MIA | F | e | |||||||||||||
| 360 | $0 | Candelario,Jeimer | 5 | DET | F | e | |||||||||||||
| 513 | -$3 | Sanchez,Yolmer | 5 | CHW | F | ||||||||||||||
| 500 | -$3 | Cozart,Zack | 5 | LAA | M | INJ | |||||||||||||
| 621 | -$5 | Drury,Brandon | 5 | TOR | M | INJ | |||||||||||||
| 533 | -$4 | Dozier,Hunter | 35 | KC | F | PW | AV | EX | |||||||||||
| 262 | $3 | Happ,Ian | o8795 | CHC | M | PW | * | AV | e | ||||||||||
| 519 | -$3 | Nunez,Renato | 5 | BAL | F | s | AV | EX | |||||||||||
| 498 | -$3 | Frazier,Todd | 5 | NYM | M | p | * | AV | INJ | ||||||||||
| 561 | -$4 | Riley,Austin | 5 | ATL | PW | EX | |||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Velazquez,Andrew | 5o | TAM | S+ | AV | EX | ||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Dalbec,Bobby | 5 | BOS | P+ | AV | EX | ||||||||||||
| 717 | -$7 | Chavis,Michael | 5 | BOS | p | EX | |||||||||||||
| 999 | -$10 | Joe,Connor | 0 | CIN | p | EX | |||||||||||||
| 751 | -$7 | Vosler,Jason | 5 | SD | p | s | AV | EX | |||||||||||
| 515 | -$3 | Kang,Jung-ho | 5 | PIT | e | ||||||||||||||
| 656 | -$6 | Freese,David | 53 | LA | Ag | ||||||||||||||
| 667 | -$6 | Bote,David | 5 | CHC | EX | ||||||||||||||
| 740 | -$7 | Kramer,Kevin | 5 | PIT | EX | ||||||||||||||
| 750 | -$7 | Cuthbert,Cheslor | 5 | KC | INJ | e | |||||||||||||
ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)
BABS puts Jose Ramirez in a class by himself with his (p, s, A+*) rating. The market agrees, as you will have to own one of the top 3-4 draft positions or pony up to $45 or so in order to own him. Nolan Arenado also possesses outstanding skills (PW, AV), but at an ADP of 9, you will pay full value for his expected elite production.
BABS identifies two dual-asset players, each of whom possesses one extreme skill, that make attractive targets. Justin Turner (PW, A+) provides a very intriguing skill set, especially in the scarcer batting effectiveness category, and is generally available in the 7th round or later. You will need to construct around his INJ risk, but his 2018 second half power metrics and a .997 OPS entice us to what a full year of PT could bring. Among mid-timers and above, Matt Carpenter (P+, a*) is one of only two 3Bmen to bring extreme power skills; BA sink Miguel Sano is the other. Carpenter rewarded his owners in 2018, and as such his ADP has increased for this year. In the 5th round, BABS says there is still profit potential if he can replicate last year’s 36 HR, .374 OBP.
A pair of former MVPs are included in the (PW, a*) group, but both Kris Bryant (pictured) and Josh Donaldson are coming off injury-ruined seasons. The market believes Bryant will bounce back, as suggested by his early 3rd round ADP. Donaldson, on the other hand, can be secured 68 picks later, potentially providing upside if healthy. Less glamorous Eugenio Suarez is the safer option in this group, available in the 4th round.
The (p, AV) class includes this year’s most hyped rookie in Vlad Guerrero Jr., who is flying off the board in Round 3 or sooner, despite the uncertainty of his MLB arrival date. BABS cautions us with both a Mid PT rating and an EX liability. BABS says you can take the more reliable Anthony Rendon for roughly the same price. Rendon has averaged 25/96/.305 over the past two seasons. Miguel Andujar, who put up Rendon-like numbers in his sensational rookie season, can also be taken almost two rounds later.
BABS sees another potential value play in Mike Moustakas (p, a). Moose’s track record and solid power and batting average skills makes him an attractive target in Round 10. Rounding out the class of 12, Wil Myers (p, s) in the 8th round is the lone player who offers a combination of power and speed. If you can plan around Myers’ INJ risk, BABS reminds us of this 28-year-old’s underlying skills where he averaged 29 HRs/24 SBs during his 2016-17 seasons.
The beauty of BABS goes beyond identifying these 12 multi-asset players. She also provides us a disbelieving view for players who the market is bullish towards. Jurickson Profar (a) is being drafted around the 7-8 turn, driven by his long-awaited breakout season. BABS looks at Profar’s pedestrian power skills and says, “Be careful,” especially with his trade to Oakland and change in home ball parks. The market also likes Rafael Devers (p) in the 10th round, but BABS reminds us that Devers is only 22, missed time due to injury in his first full season, and had a heavy ground ball rate in the second half. There are many cheaper options in both asset groups.
Maybe we need to consider a few multi-position players that have been more valuable in the historically shallower MI positions… 3B-eligible guys such as Alex Bregman and Javy Baez. Regardless, just know as you dive into your 2019 drafts, the 3B pool contains several skills sets worth owning but isn’t as deep as you might have recollected.
where is bregman on list
Jack, Batters are typically listed at the position where they are the most valuable. Otherwise, we’d be double and triple-listing some players. Bregman (and Baez) was mentioned in the article as an example of those multi-position players to consider here. Bregman will show up on the SS list.
Shouldn’t Travis Shaw be listed in the same skill group as Bryant, Suarez, and Donaldson?
What about Chapman…why no love?
This guy had a great year last year.
Based on his reply about bregman I’m assuming Shaw is more valuable on the 2B list.
That’s correct. Historically MI has been shallower than CI. BABS assigns a primary position for each multi-position eligible player. Travis Shaw will be included on the 2B list, and, yes, he carries the same asset rating as Bryant and company.
Next week should be reports for both of the MI positions.
Kevin, BABS has nothing against Chapman, and recognizes his significant power skills (PW). She just loves the multi asset 3Bmen a bit more, who also bring valuable Av or Sp skills.
This type analysis is very helpful.
I wonder if that, in the current environment, corner infield spots are just as tough to fill as middle infield spots. That would make best value position decisions a pain, but everyone has to be aware of it when doing pre-draft prep—too many SS’s might go to fill 3B spots, for example.
Is park designation only for people who have changed teams? I see Profar has a negative and nobody else has any indication. If so, why? If Arrenado is shown as having less power than Carpenter, this must take park effects into account. If those effects are taken into account on the skills portion, shouldn’t Arrenado get the park bonus? He certainly takes advantage of it–.609 SLG at home versus .469 on the road.
Park designations are only for players who have changed teams during the off-season. All other park effects should be baked into the ratings.
Then why is Arrenado a lower power guy than Carpenter? He’s been more power for many consistent years in real stats. Yes, they are Coors inflated stats, but shouldn’t he get the positive on one side or the other?
Adam, I agree with your comment. I tried to make that point in the last paragraph of the article. If we use BABS to measure position scarcity based on the number of mid/full time players who count as “2 assets” on the BABS asset scoresheet, there are more such players at SS than at 3B for 2019. One remedy therefore could be to use the multi position eligible guys at 3B this year.
I still don’t understand this one. Is there a way to get the answer to this question?
Looking at the book, power is based on expected linear weighted power index. Per HQ’s definitions, it should be based on results, but absolutely nothing of Arenado’s results in the last several years would put him lower than the top level of that—certainly more than Carpenter. I am confused.
HQ’s definitions? BABS is only partially concerned with results – in fact, her ratings are a computed based on a combination of observed outcomes and underlying skills. Carpenter’s power metrics have been consistently higher than Arenado’s and BABS thought it was only a matter of time before the results reflected that. Injuries have delayed Carpenter’s breakout and his age may eventually shorten its lifespan, but just because one player hits more HRs doesn’t necessarily mean he has more inherent power.