First round risers
This is my weekly article from ESPN Insider.
Most first round picks are not going to return first round value. If our goal is to roster the safest foundation players at the top of the draft, these are the only players currently ranked in the Top 15 that I would trust nearly 100 percent with my first pick (NFBC ADP in parentheses):
1. Mike Trout
2. Jose Altuve
4. Nolan Arenado
8. Charlie Blackmon
11. Max Scherzer
14. Carlos Correa
15. Kris Bryant
I’d add Paul Goldschmidt, Clayton Kershaw and Mookie Betts as players who I’d trust at maybe 80 percent. The humidor, a gimpy back and inconsistency make this trio slightly more risky.
So, assuming I’d be willing to take one of the above 10 players in the first round, what if I’m seeded eleventh and they are all gone? Well, odds are they won’t be. Given that riskier players ranked higher – like Trea Turner, Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper – are going to get snapped up, one of the 10 could drop.
But, point taken – what if I’m seeded 15th?
As it turns out, there are many players currently going in the second round and later who either have first round pedigree or could rise to that level. Some of these players can be drafted closer to their ADP. However, depending upon your roster construction, it might be prudent to reach a bit and draft them earlier. Risk mitigation is worthy of that critical first pick.
Here are four players I would not hesitate to push to the end of the first round if I missed out on the 10 listed above. In order of their current ADP:
Joey Votto (18) is about the safest 30 HR, 100 RBI, .320 hitter you can find. He’s averaged more than 550 at-bats over the past three years. How is this guy not a clear first-rounder? Because the sheen is off when a veteran hits his mid-30s and we are entranced by shiny new players. Plus, there is the false sense that it is tougher to amass runs and RBIs on a poor offensive team like the Reds. But compare his stats over the past three seasons to Bryce Harper (10) and ask yourself who is the safer pick.
Freddie Freeman (22) is a bit riskier than Votto due to the time he’s lost to injury during two of the past three years. But last year, an errant pitch broke his wrist, which is not a chronic ailment, and his performance was nearly vintage upon his return. These days, you have to consider batting average as a scarce category, so any .300 hitters who can provide a solid foundation have to be elevated.
Anthony Rizzo (25) held a first round ADP in each of 2015, 2016 and 2017, and while he didn’t quite earn back enough to return par value, he certainly doesn’t belong at the tail end of the second round either. He has been the model of consistency, which is what you want with a first round pick. I can ink in 30 HR, 100 Runs, 100 RBI, and a .280 average; I have no hesitation grabbing that to anchor my offense.
Dee Gordon (28) is not a proto-typical first-rounder, but despite his later ADP, you will be hard-pressed to purchase him for less than $30 in an auction league. He gives you two scarce categories – steals and batting average – and the steals impact alone can completely reshape a roster. Some folks look at the category zeroes in home runs and RBI, but I see that as just a one category loss – Arenado leaves you with just as big a hole in steals. Given that power is so plentiful these days, the shortfall can be made up throughout the rest of your roster.
Beyond this group, there are several other players who could earn first round value in 2018. I would not draft them that high, but I’d be very happy to roster them at their current ADP and pocket the potential profit.
Josh Donaldson (29) was the eighth best player in baseball in 2015, then had a first round ADP in 2016 and 2017. He sustained a calf injury in spring training last year, which lingered for the entire first half and suppressed his overall numbers. But there was no erosion of skill – he hit 22 home runs with a .302 average from August 1 on. There is an argument that, if I’m buying into his second half surge I should do likewise with Manny Machado. But I’m more willing to take the risk at pick 29 than at pick 16.
Jose Abreu (39) is being drafted near the end of the third round but his numbers are almost indistinguishable from Rizzo’s. Over the past three years, Rizzo has averaged 32-105-.281; Abreu has averaged 29-101-.295. How are they being drafted nearly a round apart, especially with batting average a scarcer category?
Starling Marte (48, pictured) was suspended for 80 games last year and the marketplace won’t let him forget it. One of baseball’s prime stolen base sources in a speed-starved game, he is on a team that will have to work harder to construct runs in 2018, which is to his advantage. Although it took a little while to get his sea legs after his return last summer, he did bat .322 from September 1 on, with no loss of speed. National League owners could have their Gordon comp, with some power too.
Christian Yelich (52) is more of a speculation, but when you consider context more than statistics, he is just the type of player who could explode. Through his five-year career, he’s shown both 20-HR power and 20-SB speed, but not at the same time. In the more favorable offensive environment of Miller Park, the excitement is already deafening. He is being drafted anywhere from pick 25 to 102, but at his market value, I’d take the over.
zero’s in HR’s and RBI’s one category loss? Don’t understand.
My conundrum is having the 8th pick and missing out on Trout, Altuve, Arenado and Blackmon. I won’t ever take a pitcher 1st round so where does that leave me. Seems too early to take a Correa or Bryant there. Guess I’m hoping Betts is there and puts up numbers somewhere in between his last two years then draft Votto or Freeman in the 2nd. Ron, would you be comfortable drafting Correa or Bryant at 8 if you could get one of those 1b in the 2nd round and would you really draft them ahead of Betts at 8? thanks
12 teams btw sorry
Every time I take a step forward in trying to figure out how BABS thinks, I take two steps backwards (must be a Mars/Venus thing). You put Rizzo in the same earnings category as Votto, Freeman and Gordon. However, BABS says that Rizzo’s balance sheet (p,AV*) is that of a $15 player. Similar thoughts for Abreu (p,AV) and Marte (SB,a). You say that you’re speculating more with Yelich (s,A+*), but BABS has him more valuable than Rizzo, Abreu and Marte. Help!
As compared to the higher ranked Nolan Arenado.
Sorry, “too early” is not really in BABS’ vocabulary. It implies that we can project players with enough precision to accurately rank them – which we can’t. You pick players when they are the best fit as compared to the marketplace. Correa or Bryant are perfectly fine at #8, and frankly, given the elevated value that starting pitchers bring, I’d be giddy to get Max Scherzer at #8.
Note that these ESPN articles are written for the ESPN audience, most of whom have no idea who BABS is.
Gotcha – wink, wink!
Don’t see the Correa (p,AV*,inj-) love here. Especially if you compare to Harper (PW,AV*, inj-). Dont get me wrong, I’m out on Harper also. At the very least though, Harper HAS had a $40 season in the past. I do like Correa ahead of Harper, but are you bullish because Correa is approaching maybe PW or A+ BABS cutoffs or is there some other reason. Even in the similar amount of AB injury shortened seasons of each last year, Harper out earned Correa. Even though Harper may be going 6-10 spots ahead of Correa, I view the drafting of either player as a VERY important piece of how any one is trying to construct their roster. As I said previously,I am NOT trying to make a case FOR Harper, but, I just consider both players at their ADP, to be at the least, somewhat questionable. Why are you so bullish on Correa , to trust in your words “nearly 100%”, in the first 15 picks.
So, Ron — I’m in a 12 team, NL-only league, with a ridiculous 15 keepers out of 23 total players (no bench or reserves). I believe I will have either 14 or 15 keepers and more projected value than any other team. So, all I have to to do is fill in 8-9 spots and move on. I have $153 to do it and as keepers, have the likes of Molina, Barnes, Bell, Rosario, Shaw, Duvall, Margot, Jon Gray, deGrom and Knebel along with some lesser players. I need two OF’s, one MI, the utility spot and 3-4 pitchers.
I am trying to use BABs to build the team, and anticipate having $40 for pitching and $113 for hitting. Targeting Freeman in the corner, Myers in the U, hope to get Hernandez at MI (as I need more speed for BABs, and two outfielders in the $25 range to fill out the hitters.
For pitching, I think I can afford another stud at around $25 and am looking at Martinez, Nola, Quintana or Darvish — ONE of which feel I can get in the $25 range if I’m patient, and then have about $13-15 for two more pitchers.
QUESTIONS:
1. Am I being wise to try to build the team to hit the BABs markers, or just consider “raw value.”
2. If so, I am horribly lacking in power and could use a bit more speed (which is why I thought Myers would fit better, both price and skill-wise, say, as opposed to Votto).
Freeman is the only Power + guy, except for Carpenter, who will be available…and even though Carpenter doesn’t carry an injury risk rating, I am a bit scared of him. He’s played in a lot of games, getting older and having some “minor” back issues at present. Do you have some mid-level OF’s, with skills (mainly power) that you would feel good about, as well as a couple of lower priced ($6-8) pitchers that you really like this year?
I know this is a terribly long question, but any input you have is appreciated!
Ok, I guess I phrased my question wrong. Based on BABS, there is no way in a million drafts I would even think to draft Bryant or Correa before Betts. Betts ticks off all the asset groups with no liabilities while Bryant and Correa are both ranked within lower asset groupings with Correa also having a liability. I know there is no exact science to this and forget about the “too early” question but I guess I’m a little confused why you would have more trust in those two players over Betts? Is there something you see in the BABS database that us mere mortals can’t?
Thank you gentlemen for this exchange. Ron, your response here seems to imply guidelines about how properly to use the information BABS provides. Given that, in some ways, the whole point of BABS is that players are more similar than they are different (and therefore trying to rank them according to differences is futile), then it seems that the bases of choice for one player over another lies in maybe three principles:
1. The relative valuation of BABS asset categories (P+ over PW over p, etc.)
2. The elements of risk associated with any given player;
3. The construction of your particular team—i.e. do I need power, speed, average, wins—or do I need a specific position to fill.
These anyway appear to be my personal guidelines as I prepare for my league draft—and if I am wandering off into the woods, I would love to be set on the correct path before it’s too late.
There is a #4: The relative cost of the player as compared to others in the same asset group.
In 2018, are we going to see the 31 HR, .318 Betts or the 24 HR, .264 Betts? You can’t answer that. Nobody can.
Sorry, Gary. I simply don’t have time for such a long request. It’s Tout Wars weekend and I’m in charge, so…. hopefully others here can chime in.
Excellent point. Thank you as always.
For auction purposes would the highest ranking 12 salaries (in a 12 team league) be the equivalent of the “First Round” for the purposes of the article?
And getting a player in the third tranche of 12 salaries would be getting a 3rd rounder?
Is that a fair way to approach this article’s advice?
If he steals 25 bags, I’m not concerned which one shows up. But I do think I trust Bryant a tad more as a low-risk first rounder. But if both of them are still sitting there in the second round, I’m probably on Betts.
If we are crowd-sourcing responses for Gary, mine are:
1. Consider raw values, get as much talent as you can. I’d rather have an unbalanced team than a weaker team with equal talent in each category.
2a. Choosing Myers’ speed over Votto (without regard to their cost) is a mistake. Joey Votto is the best player in baseball. I sound like a 12 year-old saying that, but it would be hard to say I’m clearly wrong. If you’re choosing Myers because he’s cheaper and you are looking for speed, then go ahead.
2b. BABS looks at past performance in assigning injury risk, but hasn’t read yesterday’s newspaper website. Carpenter has a hurt back. The information is fuzzy. I read somewhere that any player with a back injury should be reduced in value by 20% in your estimates. I have zero backup for this claim, but I liked the boldness of it when I read it, and the idea has stuck with me. I hope this helps, and that others give some feedback that make you more comfortable with your choices. Good luck, and let us know if it works out well. Team Shandler is cheering for you.
It’s all about reliability. The range of Correa’s performances during his career is much narrower than Harper’s. I know Correa is going to hit 20-25 HRs, bat close to .300 and maybe have a bunch of steals. Harper might hit 25 HRs, he might hit 40. He might bat .300 or he might bat .243. Is he going to steal 21, or 4? He’s only one year removed from that 2016 disaster season. I don’t know what to expect from him, and that’s scary for a 1st rounder.
Sure, that works, though the article assumes a 15-team league.
Hey Guys – I’m in a points league (10 teams) that’s weighted to the RBI (1.25) with hits and runs at .75 and homers and SB at .5. Pitchers get 8 for a win and 6 for a QS with .25 for IP and K. We only start 3 SP/week and a normal AL batting line-up. I have the 4 pick and am assuming Trout, Altuve and Arenado will be gone. I’m thinking of Correa or Sale (top BABS pitcher). Thoughts?
Ron’s article has me rethinking my plan for my upcoming draft. I’m sitting #11 in a 15-team 5×5 mixed league. I was going to grab Dee Gordon in the first round (and then not worry about cobbling together steals), then pick up the most power available in rounds 2 and 3. Now I’m thinking I should perhaps take whichever of the Trusty Ten falls to me at #11, then grab Marte coming back at #20, assuming Gordon is taken by then.
Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.
Just noticing that Carlos Correa is at the top of the third colored tier of the BABS sheet (with Machado, Rizzo, Benintendi). How can he be a rock solid 1st round pick when he is so much lower in the chart? Aren’t the Dark Green players supposed to be the ones that project the most possible value?
Or am I wrong here and that is not how any of this works?
I would taske either one of the trusty ten or Votto at 11 and if Gordon’s there at 20 take him. Or Votto or Freeman in the 2nd and get Marte in the third round. Good chance he will still be there.
That has me confused as well.
These ESPN articles are written for a different audience. Note no mention of BABS anywhere. There is plenty you can still take out of them, but they are not related to my BABS work.
That clears so much up. So Mr. Shandler and BABS do not always agree perfectly. The BABS chart tells us the designations the players have earned according to BABS. Mr. Shandler likes Correa better as a first round pick than some of the players who appear higher in the BABS Sheet. Is that right? Close?
It’s a great article. I relied on it heavily in a draft, a pre-draft trade, and in a rule 5 draft. Thank you.