First Base is Thinner, but Leverage Options are Plentiful

It has been pointed out in numerous places that this is the first year (since 2004, anyway) that there are no first-basemen in the first round ADP rankings. Indeed, the position has thinned out, but there still remain plenty of BABSian opportunities to play off the marketplace.

Among full- and mid-timers, there are only seven extreme power options, which is down considerably from 13 last year. Of those seven, three will cost you in batting average. In all, there are 11 full-timers with significant or better power, which is down from 15 last year. Back in 2016, there were 21 of them!

Twenty 1Bmen provide positive assets in batting average. Cody Bellinger and Ian Desmond are the only two who add some legitimate speed.

Here are the BABS ratings for the first basemen who will potentially provide some positive value to your team:

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Pw (Power), Sp (Speed), Av (Batting Effectiveness), * (OBP help), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Av (Batting Ineffectiveness), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

It is a bit of a surprise to see the name that tops this list. Typically, Jesus Aguilar (pictured) is the seventh 1Bman off the board, but his combination of extreme power and moderate batting average paces the BABS field. There is an immediate fallback option in this asset group, which is unusual at the top of the pyramid. If you can absorb the risk and playing time downside, Jay Bruce possesses the same skills profile over 200 spots later.

The (PW,AV) group offers another quick option to roster a high-skilled player at a discount. Paul Goldschmidt and Freddie Freeman are the 2nd rounders here. One bad season and recency bias has relegated Joey Votto to a 5th/6th round swing pick. Same skills profile.

The (p,AV) group is similar. Anthony Rizzo is the leader in the 3rd round, but Jose Abreu is a comp 50 spots later. And for those who reject ageism and can weather the risk, old friend Miguel Cabrera has fallen to the 11th round.

A scan of the list above reveals quite a few marketplace leverage options. Justin Smoak and Brandon Belt are just less expensive versions of Edwin Encarnacion. Eric Hosmer is going in the 12th round, but there is a trio of comparable players going anywhere from the 15th to the 31st rounds.

In the end-game, there are a handful of enticing good-skilled speculations who could move into more playing time. Matt Adams always seems to find 300 AB and that means 20 HRs for a reserve pick. Fave Ryan McMahon is still in the hunt for ABs, and while the market is placing their bets on Garrett Hampson, it’s still an open race. McMahon also adds the prospect of future multi-positional eligibility, which is nice. And Rowdy Tellez is a Justin Smoak injury away from some playing time, though admittedly I wrote the same thing last year.