Early season power outages: Is BABS concerned?

by Doug Gruber

Most teams have now played 25 or more games, and full-time players have logged approximately 100 plate appearances. That’s about 15% of the season in the books. Still early.

We all know the players who are off to incredible starts. Christian Yelich has been amazing with 13 home runs already. Cody Bellinger is close behind with 12. And Jose Altuve has nine, after hitting only 13 home runs for all of 2018.

But what about those power hitters that we drafted for home run production who are off to very slow starts? Let’s take a closer look at several players who came equipped with BABS power assets, but who have not yet hit a single home run.

Undrafted in most 2018 leagues, Jesus Aguilar (P+,a) rode a sizzling April start into a breakout season for his fantasy owners, to the tune of 35 HRs, 108 RBIs and .274 BA. His underlying power skills fully supported his production. BABS placed Aguilar in the (P+,a) class with big name players like Judge, Harper, Stanton, Hoskins and Carpenter. This year’s beginning has been a complete reversal of fortunes. To date, Aguilar is hitting 9 for 68 (.132) with only two doubles, resulting in an abysmal .393 OPS and a microscopic .029 ISO. He has begun to lose playing time to the hot hitting Eric Thames. But a closer look inside Aguilar’s numbers shows no significant change his in LD and FB rates, strikeout or walk rates, or his O-swing %. An unlucky .176 BABIP seems to be his biggest enemy so far. BABS OUTLOOK: Cautiously optimistic, but at risk of losing PT.

In 2016, future HOFer Miguel Cabrera (p,AV) put together a typical Miggy-like season with 38/108/.316, earning a well-deserved BABS rating of (PW,A+). Injuries sapped Cabrera’s power in 2017 and cut his season to only 38 games a year ago due to a torn biceps tendon. 2019 spring training reports of a healthy Cabrera had fantasy owners hoping for a power/average bargain around the 10^th round. Thus far, Cabrera is hitting a respectable .279 (24 for 86) with a .364 OBP, however, it has now been more than a year since his last HR. He owns a .047 ISO as only four of his 24 hits have been for extra bases. But he is hitting the ball hard (52% HH rate) albeit with slightly more ground balls than his historical profile. Perhaps it’s the cold weather? The weatherman has been unkind to the Tigers schedule so far. Outside of the opening series at Toronto, the Tigers had played 11 games in spacious Comerica Park, and road series in Minnesota, NY and Boston, with many game time temperatures hovering in the 30s. BABS OUTLOOK: Miggy, and the weather, will heat up soon.

Tigers teammate Nick Castellanos (PW,AV) also is in pursuit of his first home run in 2019, although included in his 20 hits are 8 doubles and a triple, bringing his ISO closer to league average at .123. Looking deeper, other than a slight uptick in his K%, Castellanos’s other power and plate skills all look very solid, such as his LD and FB rates and his hard-hit metrics. He is more than likely playing in his final year in Detroit, and he could be dealt at the July deadline. Playing for a playoff contender in a better hitting venue may ultimately be beneficial to Nick’s season power totals. BABS OUTLOOK: Not concerned.

The Dodgers are off to a strong start and have not been impacted by weather issues. Home runs have been abundant, especially at Chavez Ravine. So how do we explain the power famine of Justin Turner (PW,A+)? His batting average and OBP are decent at .259 (22 for 85) and .369, respectively, although not at Turner’s norms. However, with zero home runs and only three doubles, his ISO is a miniscule .036, compared to ISO numbers that have been stellar (above.200) across his past three seasons. As we examine closer, Turner is still hitting the ball very hard, however, those hard-hit balls have been mostly ground balls at the expense of LDs and FBs, perhaps explaining his reduction in power. BABS OUTLOOK: Concerned, but track record says he should come around.

BABS identified power as the hitting asset for Texas 2B Rougned Odor (p), not surprising given that Odor hit 30 or more home runs in 2016 and 2017. Despite a good spring, Odor is off to a very sluggish start in 2019, going 7 for 42 with no home runs and only two doubles (.048 ISO). Odor’s hard-hit rates are down, and his strikeout rate is up over 30%. Odor landed on the IL to rehab a sore right knee that might have been the root cause for his woes. He is due to return to the Rangers lineup this weekend. BABS OUTLOOK: Concerned, unless proven healthy again.

Twenty-two year old Rafael Devers (p) is another player without a long ball in 2019. He is 22 for 83, with only five doubles and a disappointing .060 ISO for the Red Sox. Devers has a respectable 12 BB/15 K split, however, a low hard-hit rate (30%) and a very high 60% GB rate explain his scarcity of power. Devers saw a rise in his GB% to over 50% in the second half a year ago, leading to a dip in home run output. So far 2019 is trending even worse. BABS OUTLOOK: Very concerned.

Boston teammate Jackie Bradley, Jr. (p) has seen his home run rate fall from 26 in 2016, to 17 and 13 the past two seasons. Bradley has been very slow out of the gate in 2019, hitting only .153 (11 for 72) with no home runs and only two doubles, a .028 ISO and 22 Ks. Bradley has always been a streaky hitter, but his 2019 profile is like Devers, with a reduction in hard contact and a significant increase in GBs. BABS OUTLOOK: Very concerned here also.

There are many others off to slow starts in the power department. For example, Kris Bryant (PW,a) and Matt Kemp (PW,AV) are only one long fly ahead of the players featured above. Small samples, cold weather, unlucky…or are we seeing a change in underlying power skills? Given the early evidence that the ball is juiced again, we would have expected the exact opposite. BABS will be watching closely and will update us throughout the season with her assessment.