BABS Update: The Humidor Cometh
The BABS database and master spreadsheet are both updated with the latest player additions and moves.
Last week’s poll indicated that most of you are planning to have your drafts the weekend of March 24-25 so I will get one more database update posted before then. I’m not sure if I’ll get in a spreadsheet update too, but as you know, the spreadsheet is the same data, just prettier.
You will notice some larger changes in this update. Based on recent research and the conclusions drawn by our friends at BaseballHQ.com, the effect of the humidor in Chase Park could be significant. This effect is reflected in BABS’ ratings of several of the Diamondbacks players.
The introduction of the humidor was intended to help D-back pitchers get a better grip on the ball, but BABS finds slightly more offensive downside than pitching upside.
A.J. Pollock has dropped from (p,SB,AV) to (SB,AV). Likewise, Jake Lamb from (PW,a) to (p), Chris Owings from (SB,a) to (s), Ketel Marte from (SB,a) to (s,a) and David Peralta from (AV) to (a). Paul Goldschmidt (PW, AV) and Alex Avila (PW) saw no change.
On the pitching side, Robbie Ray improved from (e,KK) to (ER,KK). Also bumped up were Zach Godley from (e,k) to (ER,k) and Archie Bradley from (ER,k) to (E+,k). Staying the same are Zack Greinke (ER,k), Brad Boxberger (ER,K+), Patrick Corbin (e) and Taijuan Walker (e).
Like I said, significant. Now, I know that BABS is more tuned in to historical skills, but reports that the humidor impact could be anywhere from 25% to 50% has her adjusting her perception. If nothing else, be aware of the risk.
Thanks for the update. This is helpful info.
Has the BABS updated information made its way into RotoLab, yet?
No. Usually takes 12-24 hours.
Keep in mind the humidor is intended to “normalize” the baseballs to those used near sea level. The humidor does not make the baseball impossible to hit out of the park. Like spring training “noise” on players, I’ll be using the humidor news to help reduce the auction price of Arizona hitters. The humidor will have an effect but I personally don’t believe it’ll be more than 25%.
I agree with your thoughts as well. I do think there will be a effect but not to the level that is being talked about. My opinion is the science is sound but the amount of panic that fellow players in my league is a little high. I too will use this to my advantage.
Maybe Ron’s next “Poll of the Week” should be about what everyone thinks about the humidor news.
Ron, everything I’ve seen has said we should expect a slight uptick in stolen bases, but BABS took down the couple of stolen base guys a notch. Are you seeing different expectations?
Will you be compiling NL-only and AL-only master spreadsheets this year like you did last year? If so, when might we expect to see them? Thanks.
You can run AL/NL-only reports from the BABS database. There will not be league-specific spreadsheets.
I knew you were going to say that 🙂
As a follow-up to this, I see that the BABS database has the same ADP/AAV for a player regardless of whether it’s a mixed league or AL/NL-only league. Since BABS looks to find pockets of value, and the market value of a player can widely differ depending on the league parameters, where should we go to find the best source of ADP/AAV for AL/NL-only leagues?
Also, does RotoLab use different values for mixed vs. only leagues? If not, can values be imported to the BABS module?
We’re getting down to crunch time, so it’s time to fine tune. Thanks.
RotoLab may have what you are looking for. Contact support@rotolab.com. I understand your desire for this information, but I personally think that – unless your league adheres perfectly to industry norms – it won’t be as helpful as you think it will.
Was curious myself. I had assumed Marte would stay the same.
Fewer hits = potentially fewer SB opps.
Applying a filter can make any spreadsheet AL/NL.
Thanks, Ron. FWIW, Zola thinks Marte may actually get more hits, per his piece on ESPN from 2/20.
I might have to introduce BABS to Todd.
info@rotolab.com is the best place to contact me. I’ve changed the Macey AAV formula quite a bit so it mirrors the LABR drafts pretty well (the last 3 averaged years of LABR results were used to check it). I’ve added code to map it to the user’s league budget and also put in a inflation factor. But Ron is correct, the ADP/AAV function is not a valuation routine. It is much more useful as a tool to spot potential bargains against the ADPs within an Asset group. It only loosely correlates to the league budget of the loaded league.