BABS streakers since the All Star Break

by Pat Cloghessy

In many leagues, the trade deadline has come and gone. The waiver wire appears picked over. Aside from shallow setups, the ability to improve is limited. 

However, “improving” one’s fantasy team is not always a by-product of adding a piece via trade or FAAB. It can happen in an instant (or seemingly so), from within.

Look at Nelson Cruz (P+,AV), pictured. 

Yes, it may be an extreme, top of mind example, but hot streaks happen all the time. Cruz appeared, for a while, to be showing his age. On July 1, he turned 39 years old. His first half line (62 games): 16 HR, 46 RBI, 37 R, a .279 BA, and an IL stint. This is not bad, but in these times, Cruz certainly seemed replaceable. 

There were 60 players with at least 16 HR in the first half of 2019. Cruz was one of 64 with 46 or more RBI. A full 124 batters (including Cruz) scored 37+ runs in the 1st half. 

The surface stats were not there, but Cruz’ skills (P+,AV) were still present. Cutting bait on Cruz in search of better stats would have been counter to his (let’s face it) still elite skill set. Extreme power coupled with a strong BA is a rare combo. 

But how can we reconcile his age and depreciating value with those assets? They appear diametrically opposed. 

Well, maybe not. Baseball, as we know, is a season of streaks. Arbitrary cutoff lines mark statistical sets that really do not tell the story. The final analysis, which takes place in October, is the best barometer of success. Were we able to stomach the valleys enough to enjoy the peaks?

Nelson Cruz’ batting line since the All-Star Break: 16 HR, 30 RBI, 22 R and a .341 BA. That production has taken place over 24 games. Two of those HRs were pinch hit at-bats in Miami (cue hysterical laugh track). That’s about two-thirds of his first half production (aside from HR) in one-third of the number of games. Season of streaks indeed. 

So fear not. Or maybe, fear some(?). Without the ability to add a significant piece to get over the hump, we may have to resort to hope. Hope that someone we drafted can still deliver on his draft price. Or at least get closer to it. Know that it’s possible.

oWAR is a decent proxy for fantasy value. If the 2nd half leaders in this category are any indication, help may already be present in a 4th outfielder, or corner infielder. Here are some of the better oWAR performers in the month since the ASB, with their associated BABS assets:

This is by no means an exhaustive list. Specific league parameters rule the day, but you get the idea. Who knows? Maybe the next hot month will come from Bryce Harper or Trea Turner. The 2019 story still needs an ending. 

Here are the 2nd half WAR leaders among starting pitchers. With relevant metrics and BABS assets:

Some names may surprise, many will not. All of these post-ASB statistics are already in the tank. We may not be able to predict who will catch fire in the next month, but there is a chance we have at least one on our roster. These are the guys who will carry us to the finish line. 

Keep an eye on the waiver wire. Some impatient owner may grow tired of a below average performer with nice assets.