BABS shakes up the top of the 2020 pitching pyramid

by Pat Cloghessy

There is going to be a shakeup at the top next year. For some, the baton will be passed from Max Scherzer (E+,K+), to 2020’s first SP off the board, Gerrit Cole (E+,K+). Scherzer (pictured) has done nothing to disabuse us of his ability to dominate, but Cole is so…I mean…look at the strikeouts! 

This may not be a consensus pick, and it could admittedly swing based on where Cole ends up in free agency. But the bottom line is this: in 2020 Gerrit Cole will be seated at the dais with the top starting pitchers in baseball. He will be, in many circles, a first round pick.

But is he even the best pitcher on his team? Justin Verlander (ER,K+) and his .165 BA against (LOL) is the top fantasy earner to date ($45). Cole is next at $37. Scherzer is 30 innings and about $11 behind Cole, 6th among pitchers. 

Cole leads the league in K% (39.4). Scherzer and Verlander are 3rd and 4th. Strikeouts per walk? Cole is first, followed by…yep, Justin and Max. Cole and Scherzer are 1-2 in xFIP, while Verlander is 9th. These guys are the best in the business.

Ultimately, it will be Cole’s age that wins out at draft time. Verlander will be entering his age 37 season, Scherzer will turn 36 in July of 2020. Some will hold on to the Hall of Fame pedigrees and choose Verlander or Scherzer first. Will next year be the one when they fall off the cliff? Bet against them at your own peril. 

If you do wager against the aging superstars, put some ducats behind Jacob deGrom (ER,KK) instead. Jake will be Gerrit Cole’s main competition for the No. 1 fantasy pitcher off the board in 2020. He’ll be 32 next season, and by all appearances, still in his prime. One of these years, deGrom is going to get some run support. When he does, the win total will rise and his already lofty fantasy value will only increase. To think that he is already more valuable in R$ terms than all but three starers, and he has only nine wins. Believe it or not, there is still room for more. Better, more consistent bets, there are not. Only recency bias will prevent Jake from being the consensus No. 1. 

Cole, deGrom, Verlander, Scherzer. We are splitting hairs here, and it’s waaaaay too early for that, right? Never.

Who else is lining up to enter the conversation? 

The biggest riser of 2020 may be Shane Bieber (ER,KK). Shane flashed in 2018, and drafters noticed, pegging him at ADP 134 entering 2019. Savvy fantasy players saw potential in the full run differential between his ERA (4.55) and FIP (3.23). This season, Bieber has shown a virtually identical 3.22 FIP, and his actual ERA caught up, currently at 3.17. Bieber sits third in roto dollars earned, at $29. Bieber is 9th in K% among qualified starters. Bieber’s ability to go deep into games has him at 195.2 IP, just five shy of Verlander for the league lead. As a result, Shane ranks 3rd in the majors in strikeouts, with 241. Get ready to pony up the bucks.

Seemingly out of nowhere, Lucas Giolito (e,KK) has become a top 10 fantasy starter. Here are his bonafides: K/9: 11.39 (7th), K%:  31.7 (5th), K-BB%: 23.5 (9th), BAA: .203 (7th), R$: 23 (T-10th among SP). Giolito’s BB/9 are a concern, but from 4.7 in 2018 to 3.0 this season, there appears to be growth. He has the makings. 

Walker Buehler (ER,KK) finishes out the triumvirate of 24 year-olds (Bieber, Giolito) ranked in the top 10 in R$ for 2019. By no means should he be considered “last” in the group. Buehler’s ascendance has seemingly followed a linear progression from top prospect, to enchanting rookie, to budding star, and finally to (the real honor) fantasy ace. He has the 4th stingiest BB/9 (1.52) and his 7.18 K/BB is 3rd best behind Verlander and Scherzer. Barring injury, Walker will eclipse the 180 plateau this season. If the Dodgers allow him to throw 200 innings in 2020 (a big ask), Buehler’s progression could continue its northeasterly linearity all the way to Cy Young City.

Other candidates worth mentioning: the resurgent Stephen Strasburg (ER,KK). Luis Castillo (ER,KK) seems to be on the verge of something great. Jack Flaherty (e,KK) stumbled out of the gate, but oh boy, has he finished strong. Look out. Finally, an All-Star for the first time since his Top 3 Cy Young finish in 2015, Sonny Gray (ER,KK) has reemerged. He’s up over 10 K/9 for the first time in his career. He will likely be treated with heavy skepticism next year. Leverage it. 

It’s no coincidence that all of these starting pitchers boast strong sets of BABS assets. While the assets only account for what has happened in 2019, the group was chosen for its robustness. And health. No small samples here. All healthy and pointing up. For now…