BABS Mining for Closers

by Justin Cary

Closers continue to be a difficult game to maneuver. Here are a few interesting insights and speculations for in-season acquisition.

The elite (E+, K+, SV) closers group includes many names you’d expect: Aroldis Chapman, Wade Davis, Edwin Diaz, Brad Hand, Craig Kimbrel and Bud Norris. Most were highly touted coming into the season, with the exception of Bud Norris (pictured). Norris has yet to blow a save in his 9 chances, and his 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP are strong. Although he has an inconsistent skill set historically, owners shouldn’t doubt the skills for now. With Greg Holland and Luke Gregerson still having issues, Norris could well hold the job.

With the issues facing Roberto Osuna, the Blue Jays closer role was passed to Tyler Clippard (ER, KK). Reviewing his history and current 4.58 FIP, there are doubts that he can hold on to the job should Osuna be out for an extended period of time. Ryan Tepera (E+, KK) is currently in the setup role and is an interesting speculation who could get his chance soon.

If owners are trying to look at BABS to determine who to mine for in-season acquisitions, look no further than the example of Blake Treinen (E+, KK). BABS historically showed that he had the pitching effectiveness and strikeout upside to be a solid closer. He won the closers role last year with the Nationals to start the season and was a complete disaster. He was shipped off to Oakland and the skill set remained. He is now up to 10 saves with the A’s this season and looks like a nice profit for owners.

Treinen had the high-end skills and was fortunate to also get the opportunity. Others are not as lucky. Two potential closers that BABS was high on entering the season are Marlins relievers Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider. Their elite skills – both (E+, K+) – have been confirmed through the early part of the season. But Brad Ziegler’s (|-ER) leash has been as long as can be imagined despite a FIP of 4.28. The FIPs of Barraclough (3.76) and Steckenrider (3.41) should open up an opportunity at some point. Sometimes, it’s only a matter of time before the skills get their chance.

One thing owners should look for in speculating on a potential closer is an (E+) skill set. Those with lesser skills increase your odds of failure. This is what you have in the risk with Phillies closer Hector Neris (e, KK). He’s never shown high-end pitching effectiveness skill. The Phillies might opt at some point to move to Edubray Ramos (E+, KK) and BABS seems to agree. Should Neris put together a few good outings, you might consider moving him.

A closer with a history of (E+) skill who BABS saw as underperforming in the early-going is Felipe Vazquez (KK). However, his initial 2018 outing was a blow-up that artificially depressed his early small sample stats, but the skills never left. He is up to 9 saves, though a recent blowup (only his second in 19 outings) has pushed his ERA up to 3.86. Next month’s BABS scan could reveal the true skill set.