BABS mines gold in multi-asset players

by Doug Gruber

Last week, we provided the targets that BABS has set, which total 49 assets across 23 roster positions. We also looked at some players who the market has pushed into the top 10 rounds but may not be the best goal-supportive acquisitions, according to BABS.

This week we’re prospecting for treasures, namely those players who not only contribute multiple assets to our roster construction, but also have been perhaps undervalued by the market. In this exercise, we will look at the last 16 rounds (rounds 8-23), and into the reserve selections, to identify players that BABS says have the skills, and could be good sources of profit.

Rounds 8-9: Mets SS Amed Rosario (F,S+,a) had a tremendous second half in 2018, earning nearly $20 for the full season. Finding extreme speed skills along with moderate BA contributions from a full-time middle infielder looks like great value to BABS near ADP 140, especially in an improved Mets lineup. Honorable mention: Wade Davis (ER,KK,SV).

Rounds 10-11: The BABS rating for pitcher Jose Alvarado (E+,KK,sv-) shows that this is a premium arm with the requisite skills to lock up a major share of the Rays’ saves. With a fastball around 98 MPH and a high K/9 rate from a ground ball pitcher, BABS gets a bit giddy knowing Alvarado is generally available around ADP 170. Honorable mention: Billy Hamilton (F,S+).

Rounds 12-13: BABS believes that Garrett Hampson (F,S+,a) has the superior offensive skills as he battles for a full-time role at 2B in Colorado. While his (EX) liability must be considered, the upside of the last player from the (S+,a) asset group makes for an enticing pick at 200. Honorable mention: Corey Dickerson (F,p,AV).

Rounds 14-15: The lack of certainty for the Phillies closer role has pushed Seranthony Dominguez (E+,K+,sv) into the 15th round, or later. But BABS says this skill set is as good as it gets for a pitcher, at (E+,K+), comparables to the likes of Diaz, Kimbrel and Chapman. Snooze, and you might lose. Honorable mention, and pictured: Kenta Maeda (M,e,KK).

Rounds 16-17: BABS identifies Randall Grichuk (F,P+) as having similar extreme power skills to the Oakland sluggers Khris Davis and Matt Olson, both of whom are being selected 10 rounds earlier, or more. Grichuk should have few challengers to a full-time, middle of the order spot in the Blue Jays lineup, hitting behind the likes of Vlad Guerrero Jr. Honorable mention: Andrew Miller (E+,K+,sv-).

Rounds 18-19: BABS has placed Manny Margot (M,SB,a) in the same asset class as several players going in the first 10 rounds…Ozzie Albies and Victor Robles as notable examples. Imagine if Margot could earn the Padres CF job, and enjoy a full season hitting leadoff in front of Machado, Myers and Hosmer. BABS says the skills are there, and so is the value at ADP 275. Honorable mention: Drew Steckenrider (ER,KK,sv-).

Rounds 20-21: A triple triple? BABS displays Kiki Hernandez (F,p,s,a) as having above-average skills in all three hitting categories. His defensive versatility makes him position eligible at 2B, SS and OF. It is an easy decision to grab such a player after 300 others have gone off the board. Honorable mention: Sonny Gray (M,e,k).

Rounds 22-23: A year ago, end game OF Matt Kemp (M,PW,AV) put together a 21/85/.290 season in 462 ABs, earning $18 on a nominal investment. A year later, BABS still loves the significant skills in power and batting effectiveness. And once again the market is ignoring him, despite his move to a more favorable hitters ball park. Honorable mention: Joc Pederson (F,PW,a).

Reserve Rounds: BABS has identified only two catchers with multi asset skills. One is J.T. Realmuto. The other is Twins backstop Mitch Garver (M,p,s), who is available very late in the reserve round, and could provide benefit even in a part-time role. Franchy Cordero (M,PW,SB), according to BABS, is the highest skilled Padre OF from the group (Renfroe, Reyes, Margot, Jankowski) competing for starting roles. Cordero brings a rare power/speed combination which could offer huge upside at ADP 400 if the playing time develops. And finally, BABS lists pitcher Brad Peacock (M,ER,KK) as having superior skills to the long line of Astros starting rotation candidates, including McHugh, Miley and promising youngsters James, Whitley and Valdez. Peacock proved to be a skillful starter late in 2017 before moving to the bullpen last year.

One of the most beautiful features of BABS is her ability to identify highly skilled players who are not feeling the love from the broader market. A year ago, within the top 50-100 players listed in the BABS report were several players that the market valued outside the top 150 picks, like Matt Carpenter, Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto, Tim Anderson and Mallex Smith to name a few.

The list above could yield similar dividends during 2019, while also helping owners to construct well-balanced rosters that reach the BABS asset goals.