BABS looks at the early upstarts
by Pat Cloghessy
Raise your hand if after seven weeks of baseball, your league standings have you in the money. Congratulations. You probably did not draft Corey Kluber, Aaron Judge or Trea Turner. It’s possible you rostered Cody Bellinger or Christian Yelich (maybe both!). Lucky you. Justin Verlander, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Luis Castillo lead your pitching staff. Kirby Yates and Brad Hand are securing saves. Man, you really know what you are doing. Us also-rans may as well pack it in.
Or not. We just got Austin Meadows back. Josh Bell is blooming through the spring rains. Luke Weaver is on the come up and Zach Eflin is living a charmed life.
Still others have helped save fantasy owners’ bacon in the early going. A few have only recently seen increased playing time. Can any of these 2019 upstarts continue their success?
Prior to this season, Tommy La Stella (AV) had 10 career HR. On Wednesday, he knocked his 11th of the season. La Stella, a player who went M.I.A. in the middle of the 2016 season, is now doing his best Joe DiMaggio impression. He has 11 HR to just eight strikeouts. Clearly, BABS wasn’t the only one who did not see this coming. He has made believers of some. And why not? With a 43% hard contact rate and a .296 ISO, Tommy is tattooing the ball. Just beware the 27% HR/FB rate. But we’ll keep drinking whatever he’s having. Hey, it’s 3 AM somewhere, right?
Thirty years after his father nearly took home the rookie of the year award, Dwight Smith, Jr. (p,s,a) is swinging just as sweetly from the left side of the plate. He’s running a little bit, too. Thanks to the Orioles’ bare cupboard, Smith has been hitting near the top of the lineup. This has optimized his counting-stat opportunities. An ISO of .224 is far from elite, but it plays. Especially in Camden Yards. Just 26 years old on a bad team, Smith could be in line for a healthy amount of at bats all season. Provided he continues to hit.
If power is something in need, Franmil Reyes (PW,-AV) has it. His 2019 whiff rate (24.6%) is more in line with his minor league numbers, and represents an improvement over his 285 AB sample in 2018 (28.1%). Thus far, it hasn’t hurt his BA, but know that it could. What’s not worrisome is his 51% hard contact rate. Reyes’ early season success has vaulted him to hit very often in the two hole. San Diego’s outfield is crowded, but it seems Reyes (pictured) has been able to win a full time role.
It’s been a long time coming, but Hunter Dozier (P+,A+) is here. And he’s battering baseballs. We saw some of this last season (44.9 Hard%). What has really elevated Dozier is strike zone discipline. His 20% K rate is precipitous drop from 2018 and even more so from recent minor league seasons. Hunter’s BB% has doubled from 6.2 to 12.5%. It’s fair to say he’s seeing the ball well. If you’re walking you’re hitting. And hitting in the middle of a surprisingly potent top of the order in KC. Is this a new Hunter Dozier? Reap the benefits while we find out.
Lately, Josh Bell (PW,AV) is the most popular player in all the land. His 1.093 OPS ranks behind only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. His average exit velo is also 3rd, behind Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo. Simply put, Josh Bell has arrived. He’s smashing balls into the Allegheny. WOW is an understatement. Bell’s career has typically seen his GB rate near 50% and FB% in the low 30’s. This season, ground balls are at 38.7% and fly balls at 37.8%. And goodness, his career hard hit rate is near 33%. To date in 2019: 49.5%! He is the only player with zero SB’s inside the top 25 batters (in terms of fantasy $ earned). He currently sits as the 12 ranked bat, without a SB to his name! Yes its early, but Bell reeks of a league winning player.
Luke Weaver (e,k) fell flat in 2018. His new digs and pitch mix have so far spawned success in Arizona. With an ADP in the 280s. most were out on Weaver in 2019. It wasn’t so long ago (2017) that Weaver was on the cusp of something possibly great. Maybe he is on his way. His K rate (26.1%) is 25th for all SP, BB% and K-BB% are both in the top 20. While it does not seem that Weaver is ready to crack into elite levels, his skills are certainly useable. Furthermore, the 3.19 ERA is not far off from his xFIP (3.69). Regression to that level would still be just fine, especially with ERA’s spiking league wide.