BABS July 2018 Update – Pitchers
by Patrick Cloghessy
The July update is here, and BABS is getting closer to the truth.
Ron’s latest newsletter informed us of his perception that “this is the first data set that truly begins to resemble what each player’s 2018 BABS rating will look like.” Does this mean we should rest on our laurels? No, but BABS shows us the answer key to some pre-season questions. This gives us ammunition to self-congratulate.
Who among us would waste an opportunity to do that?
No need to consult BABS for the answer.
Egos ready for stoking?
Starters
The (E+,KK) asset group counts 10 members in this update. Have the new staff anchors arrived? BABS says the needle is pointing up.
Trevor Bauer (E+, KK)
Trevor Bauer’s skills growth has now entered it’s third consecutive year. Trends are not always linear, but Bauer has succeeded in making it appear so. If these things hold, expect Bauer to be drafted as an ace next season. To date, BABS agrees, as does his K%.
Patrick Corbin (E+, KK)
His velocity drop well-documented, Corbin (pictured) has nevertheless amassed a thoroughgoing statistical campaign. BABS likes the underlying skills. His K% sits behind only Scherzer, Sale, and Cole (BABS’ top 3). Could it be his new curveball is to thank for the surge? Is it the humidor effect? Too early to tell. For now, BABS is buying Corbin, and his xERA says there is even room for slight improvement.
Blake Snell and Charlie Morton (E+, KK)
Both continue to outperform FIP levels near 3.50 and near 10% walk rates. This is likely due to (yep) their elite K%. So their foundations are shakier than their peers’. There are many degrees of excellence.
Feels good, right? We found starting pitchers who took a big step up. So far.
The holders of multiple elite assets are easy plays. Low-risk bets. Then there are those who display sparkling surface stats, but could be considered wobbly by BABS standards. And BABS has high standards.
Jon Lester and Miles Mikolas (ER)
The two division rivals provide a good BABS case study. Both are pitching to a sub 2.50 ERA. BABS sees neither as a plentiful source of Ks. These are not the SP we typically target.
Underlying metrics xERA and FIP like what Mikolas has done. These same metrics cast some doubt on Lester’s All-Star caliber first half. Could Mikolas’ success be short lived? He’s back from overseas with a new repertoire. The league will likely adjust. Should we be scared off?
Lester has the track record. He has the guile. He’s a wily vet. Big game pitcher, etc, etc, etc. BABS says his skills are deteriorating at age 34. Has he become a different pitcher? Or is this just one half of a season? He’s also been lucky.
Are we sensing a theme? We know. Get the guys who get the Ks. They are safer plays.
Bullpens
Now would be a good time to familiarize ourselves with BABS’ voluminous groups of relief pitchers. We can expect high-leverage bullpen arms to be on the move in the coming weeks. The closers-in-waiting could be lurking in the elite asset groups.
If you are a trade-deadline loser in the saves department, fear not. There are many elite RP who have standalone value. Peruse the elite RP groups — think (ER,KK) to (E+,K+) — and see the corresponding roto stats. Is this WHIP heaven?
(E+,K+) Chris Devenski, Daniel Winkler, Dellin Betances, Chad Green are expected. See also Justin Miller, Kirby Yates, Jace Fry, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock. Will Smith, Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino and Reyes Moronta!
(E+,KK) Tony Watson, Craig Stammen, Steve Cishek, Lou Trivino, Jonathan Holder and Jeremy Jeffress.
We get the point. Fantasy owners with less than stellar starters can look to relievers for assistance.
Quick Hits
Seranthony Dominguez (E+, K+, sv-) is a managerial vote of confidence away from being listed next to Chapman, Kimbrel, Dootlittle, Diaz and Hand.
Jack Flaherty (M, ER, KK) is in the same asset group as some oft-injured members of the Elite: Kershaw, Syndergaard and Strasburg. Stay tuned.
Jon Gray (F, KK, -ER) and Domingo German (M, KK, -ER) offer tantalizing strikeout potential. They have also proven to be uneven. BABS thinks we should expect more of the same, despite our soft spot for tremendous K numbers.
Mid-timers with assets could be an injury away from full-time work.
Mid-timers with assets could work full-time if they were healthy.
We must constantly remind ourselves that stats already earned are only relevant in the current standings. It feels great to see our guys earning immense profits. But there are three months left; we must stay vigilant to realize the gains.
So pat yourself on the back. Tell your league-mates how you just knew that Blake Treinen was going to be a top closer.
Then get back to work.