BABS July 2018 Update – Batters

by Chris Doyle

Check out the latest BABS update here.

Patrick Cloghessy said it best earlier this week when he asked if we can finally put our feet up now that the July update has arrived.

Nope.

Sure, you might be near the top of the pack, but now the real work begins. Or, if you’re at the other end of the spectrum, it’s do or die time. Crunch time. Time to put up or shut up. You get the idea.

On to some noteworthy ratings:

Jesus Aguilar (M, P+, A+)

If you’ve been following along with the updates all season there are no real surprises at the top of the report. Then you come to Jesus Aguilar, who has completely earned his starting role with the Brewers after a rash of injuries forced him into full-time duty. The .303 average is fully supported by a 45% hard hit rate and a 24% line drive rate and the power has manifested itself in the form of 32 extra base hits, including 19 home runs. His .606 slugging percentage would be fourth best in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Expect this to continue, and if you were fortunate enough to grab him back in April, give yourself a nice pat on the back.

Nick Castellanos (PW, SB, AV)

We’ve touched on Castellanos (pictured) in this space before but he still doesn’t seem to get the love he deserves. You don’t see the gaudy numbers that get you noticed but with three homers since the July 1st update was posted, he’s now up to 14 on the season to go along with a .309 average. It’s interesting that BABS views him as an asset on the basepaths, but as we know BABS looks at much more than stolen bases themselves (he has just one). Perhaps there’s some sneaky upside there. With an almost identical walk rate, strikeout rate and ISO as last season, Castellanos very much looks like the same player on the surface. But if his significant improvements in line drive rate and hard hit rate hold, he’s potentially turning himself into an elite hitter.

Dee Gordon (F, S+, AV) and Travis Jankowski (M, S+, AV)

The only thing separating these two is playing time. Jankowski began the season in the minor leagues but since his promotion has been a pleasant surprise, hitting .286 with 12 SB in just 168 ABs prior to the update. Jankowski is a really great buy candidate for owners seeking speed, as all he needs is a bit more consistent playing time and he’s Gordon-lite.

Eugenio Suarez and Brandon Belt (F, PW, s, AV)

A criminally underrated duo, although at least Suarez was a top-200 pick by ADP this year. He’s shown an improvement in contact, dropping his strikeout rate from 23% to 19% while upping his hard hit rate nearly 20 points to a whopping 52%. Belt, meanwhile, has again missed some time due to injury but he’s been a steal when healthy with a .900 OPS. At an ADP of 302 he’s an incredible value.

Max Muncy (M, P+, a) and Matt Carpenter (F, P+, a)

Is Muncy the new Carpenter? The similarities are striking, right down to the high on-base profile and fly ball stroke. And now they’ve even got the same assets, minus the playing time. Going forward Muncy looks like he’s going to play almost every day, and he’s earned it: he’s hit .282/.419/.640 with 20 HR in just 236 plate appearances. His keen eye has allowed him to walk an unbelievable 19% of the time while only striking out 22% of the time. To put that into context, the only player who has walked more frequently with as many plate appearances is Mike Trout. On top of that, only 11 players with 200-plus plate appearances have hit the ball hard as often as Muncy. Those are some solid peripherals that seem to suggest what Muncy has done to this point was no fluke. The big question is can he sustain it?

Rhys Hoskins and Matt Olson (F, P+)

While Olson was a favorite breakout pick by many before the season he certainly wasn’t pegged as a Hoskins equivalent, but to-date that’s what he’s been. Statcast sees room for plenty of improvement, too. Olson’s xSLG of .578 – helped by an insane 55.8% hard hit rate – is 21st in baseball just behind Jose Ramirez and ahead of Aaron Judge. His real SLG is .124 points lower, the 14th largest negative differential, meaning a correction is likely. For Hoskins, the power is still there (.514 xSLG) but it’s nowhere near the .618 mark he posted in 2017. Statcast doesn’t see any improvement coming in average either, as his .245 xBA can attest. Hoskins’ fourth round ADP always did seem pricey, and we’re now seeing just how inflated his value was on draft day when a guy like Olson could have been had nearly 100 picks later.

Gorkys Hernandez (M, p, s, a)

The sample size is still a little small for Hernandez with only 205 ABs but the veteran outfielder has contributed in multiple categories with 10 HR and 4 SB while hitting .283. This one feels like a mirage, though. A 22% HR/FB rate is not sustainable for someone who has displayed virtually no power his entire career; he hit exactly zero home runs in 348 PA in 2017. He’s benefitting from a .347 BABIP as well, so it shouldn’t be long before this bubble is burst.