BABS has some final thoughts…
For those who have not yet drafted, here are a few last-minute tidbits:
Finding value in the catcher pool
Earlier this off-season, we posted the following poll:
What will be your approach to drafting catchers in 2018 (2-catcher leagues)?
32% Value, value, value. I’ll take it wherever it comes.
21% I will try to draft any one of the top names, then backfill with whatever I can get.
19% I will not overpay/overdraft catchers. Two end-gamers are fine.
19% I will try to draft two mid-level catchers.
8% I’m all in on Gary Sanchez, then whatever comes my way.
“Value, value, value” is a really nice thing to reach for, but if you think you are going to find that in the catcher pool, you are mistaken. Position scarcity pushes up the price tag of all catchers. At the bottom, you’ll be paying $1 for players who will hurt your team. There is no “value” here.
For instance, if J.T. Realmuto’s numbers were attached to an outfielder, he would be far from a $13 player or top 100 pick. Even BABS thinks so. Look at his (s,a) asset group. His market value tops the group and the ADPs of the players behind him sink like rocks. You’ll see that many catchers are at or near the top of their asset groups – Zunino, Perez, Posey, Molina, Castillo, etc. – with market prices plunging behind them.
So, no, you can’t find value in 2-catcher leagues. Two end-gamers is a deadly approach as well. Any of the remaining poll options can work.
It’s all about the marketplace
The dollar values and ADPs in the BABS database and spreadsheet represent industry averages, and skew towards the values of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. But these are not necessarily representative, and probably not an accurate of a barometer of your own league’s tendencies.
So change them. In the spreadsheet, if you see players who you know will go for higher or lower than the listed value, make the adjustments and resort the players within those affected asset groups.
If you know that your owners mostly draft off the player ratings generated at a particular website, like BaseballHQ.com or Rotowire, or wherever, you can completely replace the market data in the BABS spreadsheet. Run those sites’ draft guides and use the VLOOKUP function to replace the values. Then re-sort. This exercise is worth the effort to provide you with a more accurate read of the marketplace in which you’ll be drafting.
BABS spreadsheet in auction leagues
The “target” function in the spreadsheet can be very helpful in identifying players to nominate in auction leagues.
At the beginning of the draft, set the target at $30. When it’s your turn to toss out a player, scan down the spreadsheet to find the lowest BABS-ranked player who has a market value in the $30s. That’s where you can draw out cash for lesser commodities.
As the draft continues, lower the target to find the lowest-skilled $25 players, then $20 players, and so on.
Draft attire
What are intelligent fantasy leaguers wearing to their draft this season? Draft attire is a lesser-discussed decision process, but could provide opportunities to experience the festivities in new, challenging ways.
How are you showing up this year?
Fully clothed: This is the way most of us have been drafting our entire lives. There are no limits to what draft prep materials are permitted at the table. Hard copy lists, laptops, phone-a-friend, etc. are all allowed. Dress up your work area with whatever you need. No limits. It’s functional, but it’s too easy.
Semi-naked: The semi-naked drafter’s support materials are limited to a list of player names (sorted by position and/or MLB team) and a blank roster sheet. That’s it. You’re expected to know the value of the players in the pool, at least well enough to construct a team. This is how the XFL has drafted since its inaugural 2003 season.
Naked: Here, the only draft prep material allowed is a blank roster sheet. You not only need to know the player pool by heart but also remember who was already drafted. You may use the blank roster sheet to cover any exposed private parts.
Skeleton: No materials of any kind. Close your eyes. Jump in. Those who attempt skeleton drafting often try out the concept first by going round-robin, reciting a small group of players. For instance, go around the table choosing five players who will hit the most home runs this year. That’s not full-skeleton, but it’s a start. You can do better.
Challenge your league to play with fewer and fewer clothes each year. There is nothing tawdry about it, but BABS really, really likes to watch.
Fully clothed, while chuckling at the owners who still buy those silly outdated magazines
Semi-naked and chuckle when there’s not enough electrical outlets to go around.
I’ve been using BABS in rotolab for my mock auction drafts. I’m getting into the habit of sorting the list for the Average Auction Value (AAV) and then nominating the top player in that sort that seems the most overvalued per BABS. It’s been a good habit rather than scanning the list without much thought for who I should nominate. Better to bleed the other owners on poor value than throw tasty fish to them early and mid-draft. What I’m noticing in my mock drafts is that the BABS players I really want that are great value are often left to be auctioned late in the draft. Two things happen: 1) I have more money and 2) Their positions may be filled on the other teams, thus reducing the number of teams vying for them. Sweet. Now we’ll see if the humans follow the bots in the real draft tomorrow
“It’s functional, but it’s too easy.”
Sorry but for the funnest, most important night of the baseball year, I’m not striving to make it harder. My league mates and the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate give me all the trouble I care to take on.
Flying Fickle Finger of Fate….that’s dang funny and should be a team name. Good luck!
If you’re at a certain level of “life experience”, see if you can give the origin of “the Flying Fickle Finger of Fate”.
You bet your sweet bippy!
Here come the judge!
Sock it to me.
This is all very interesting…. but schtupid.
I have set my targets, my total avoids, and have Babs SHEET, along with bbhq CDG,(set to correlate to my league categories, including OBP. Plan is to get those BA/OBP two categories nailed, then work on the rest.
Since I am going batting first, I am familiar with my league, and at least half will go pitching first, so I have a very good chance on my first three picks to get Arenado,
Yelich, and Bellinger. (and that is exactly how it worked…got lucky)
And have planned my first pick, if it comes to me, and have a plan B.
then my plan was to get at least two top line pithcers, not the top four bc, I knew they would be gone…I got Nola, and Quintana.
Then just fill in the rest with BABS values like Carpenter, etc…..and cross fingers luck finds my way.
martin