BABS awards her most improved for 2019

by Doug Gruber

The end of the baseball season brings discussion for awards such as Cy Young and MVP. At BABSbaseball, we are all about player skills. Many players have demonstrated significant changes in their underlying skill sets during the season. Let’s look at those who have shown the biggest improvements and award the BABS MOST IMPROVED player honor for 2019.

We will measure the improvement based on changes from BABS’ pre-season ratings versus the 2019 in-season ratings.

Here are several HONORABLE MENTION finalists (pre-season rating | in-season rating):

The Pirates Josh Bell (a | PW,AV) had a tremendous first half, and although he has leveled off since the Home Run Derby and All-Star break, his overall numbers are impressive… 37 HRs, 116 RBIs and a .923 OPS. BABS says the 2019 power is real, as Bell hit as many home runs this season as his prior two seasons combined.

Highly touted Rafael Devers (p | p,A+) showed flashes of power a year ago (22 home runs in 450 ABs), but his .240 BA and 121 strikeouts weren’t yet the batting skills that BABS considered an asset. Devers however has shown tremendous growth in 2019, and the result was a fabulous season for the 22-year-old phenom. 29/107/.310 driven by a .243 ISO while significantly cutting his whiff rate from 25% to 17%.

Royals slugger Jorge Soler (p | PW,a) has enjoyed a mostly injury-free season, and the result has been a leap in ISO from .202 in 2018 to .300 for the current year, ranking him No. 7 overall. His 45 HRs, 47% hard hit rate and a 28% HR/FB rate will make Soler one of the most coveted power bats to own heading into 2020.

BABS said that David Fletcher (- | s,AV) of the Angels did not possess any above average assets entering 2019. But the Angel infielder this year has made significant strides in over 600 plate appearances. Of note, his K% sits at only 9%, nearly identical to his BB%. Coupled with a 27% LD rate, Fletcher has put together a .290 season while scoring 76 runs and swiping 8 bases in 11 attempts. He has become fantasy relevant.

On the pitching side, three starting pitchers have improved from the frightful (-ER) BABS rating to possessing double assets during 2019. Mike Minor (-ER | e,k) has shown big improvements in his K/9 rate and FIP, which has led to his career best season…194 IPs, 13 wins, a 3.33 ERA and 188 strikeouts, while pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Arlington stadium.

White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (-ER | e,KK) has received much recognition, rightfully so, for his breakout. And BABS agrees that his numbers are supported by a big improvement in his primary skills. Giolito’s K rate has increased to 11.6 while at the same time knocking off almost two walks per nine versus his prior season. The result? A FIP that has improved from 5.56 to 3.44, essentially matching his season ERA of 3.41. He also increased his strikeouts from 125 to 228.

Matthew Boyd (-ER | e, KK) matched the skills improvement of Giolito, moving from the pitcher liability (-ER) dungeon to a double asset fantasy contributor. He made huge strides in his strikeout rate, going from 8.4 a year ago to nearly 12 K/9 in 2019. His 228 Ks were by far a career high, and his xFIP of 3.82 was the lone bright spot on an otherwise frightful Tigers staff.

Two relief pitchers are being recognized for their skills improvements during 2019. Entering this season, BABS did not rate Shane Greene (k,sv- | E+,KK,sv-) as having the necessary skills to likely keep his job as Tigers closer. Greene surprised us with a full run improvement in FIP, and an actual ERA of 2.16. He also has a K:BB rate of 61:17, while limiting home runs to one per nine innings.

A year ago, Ian Kennedy (-ER | ER,k,sv-) started 22 games for the Royals, and, frankly, the results were not good. This season Kennedy moved to the bullpen, and after an adjustment period for a month or so, he has now solidified his role as Royals closer. He earned his 30th save this week and based on a K/9 rate over 10.4 and a FIP of 2.87, BABS agrees that Kennedy’s skills as a relief pitcher made a big jump forward.

2019 RUNNER-UP:

To find Gio Urshela (-AV | PW,A+) on the 2019 BABS pre-season rankings, one would have had to scroll to the very bottom of the hitters ratings. 2018 found Urshela bouncing between minor league teams for the Indians, Blue Jays and Yankee organizations, other than 43 ABs with a home run during a brief stint in Toronto. Urshela received his Yankee opportunity this year when Miguel Andujar was lost for the season, and here is what Urshela has delivered…415 ABs, 20/73/.328 and a 3.3 WAR player. His underlying skills included a 26% LD rate, 44% hard hit balls and a K rate of only 17%. From -AV to A+ is as great of an improvement as possible on the BABS batting effectiveness scale.

AND THE 2019 WINNER IS….

A year ago, the Rangers Danny Santana (-AV | P+,SB,AV) spent most of the season with the Braves AAA club, other than a brief, unproductive 28 at-bats for the parent club, earning him a dreadful BABS rating of (-AV). But his age-28 season in Texas has been a remarkable turnaround…and fantasy owners who acquired Santana (pictured) in April/May have been handsomely rewarded. His 25 home runs have been supported by a .247 ISO. Prior to 2019, Santana had only 13 career dingers…it’s more than just the baseball. His .286 BA has been justified based on a 25% LD rate, and a 44% hard-hit rate. Plus 17 steals. From a non-rostered batting liability to a BABS triple-asset performer. Danny Santana…BABS MOST IMPROVED for 2019!