BABS arms ready to take the next step up

by Patrick Cloghessy

According to BABS, in 2017 Patrick Corbin pitched a full season of essentially “asset-less” baseball. She then tabbed him with a (F,e) rating entering 2018. That is not the profile of a breakout star. Some of us may have seen Corbin’s mostly dynamic 2nd half in 2017. He tired in September, but there were signs of the pitcher who broke out way back in 2013. As of the September update, BABS rates Corbin (E+,KK) as elite. His asset group includes Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and fellow breakout Trevor Bauer.

Corbin’s case illustrates the difficulty in identifying pitchers primed to make a jump to the next level. That said, it doesn’t hurt to try…

If Walker Buehler (ER,k) is already elite, BABS’ September assessment does not reflect it. What she doesn’t know (yet) is that Buehler’s final month has been sensational. Once his 11.7 k/9, 16% swinging strike rate and .152 opposition OBP over  32 September innings are incorporated into his rating, she might have Buehler (pictured) up there with the top arms. 2019 drafters are likely to concur.

Has German Marquez (e,k) solved the Coors Field riddle? Similar to Corbin, he showcased solid 2nd half skills in 2017. While they didn’t translate immediately in 2018, they have soared from July forward. He has been stingy with the walks (1.8 BB/9) and generous with the strikeouts (11.5 k/9). If we couple that elite 2nd hal profile with his dominant September, Marquez could crack the ADP top 150  next season. No small feat for a Rockies pitcher.

It took seven years, but the New York Mets may have finally realized the return on the Carlos Beltran trade. Zack Wheeler (e,k) is another 2nd half riser. August and September in particular have seen Wheeler go from, “ok, Zack Wheeler is here and healthy” to “OK, ZACK WHEELER HAS FINALLY ARRIVED”. We must be leery of two months of data, but a walk rate under 2 per 9 IP and OBA of under .200 are spectacular. Wheeler’s health has always been his bugaboo, but with an upward trajectory he could be a risk worth taking to fill out a 2019 fantasy rotation.

Michael Clevinger (e,k) came into 2018 as a popular sleeper (ADP 205). He has not disappointed, and has likely even exceeded expectations. Along the way to a $20 pitching season, it appears Clevinger’s skills still seem to be in consolidation mode. Month over month variations in K/9, FpK rate and BB rate show a young pitcher still figuring it out. Looking at year over year, however, we see skills improvement virtually across the board. Michael may have more in the tank. Two hundred K’s and possibly room for more? Get in line for 2019.

There is no way around it, Luis Castillo (k,-ER) has been a disappointment. Entering 2018, drafters ignored the BABS risk (ER,k | EX) and drafted him in the top 100 (ADP 95). Castillo has been stung by gopheritis all season (18% HR/fly ball). Improvement on that metric alone (league average is 10%) would dramatically improve Castillo’s surface stats. The remainder of his skills are decidedly solid (8.8 k/9, 2.6 BB/9, 14% SwK, 46% ground balls). We can surmise that, given his failure to deliver on expectations, his draft price will drop next season. Late this season, he showed glimpses of his upside. Could be a bargain next year.

Nick Pivetta (k) has had a confounding season. BABS is skeptical, but Pivetta’s skills (10.3 k/9, 2.8 bb/9, 13% SwK rate) have merit. With an xFIP (3.43) a full run lower than his ERA (4.77), Nick probably suffered from bad luck. He now has two seasons of ugly surface stats on his resume. We have seen this movie before. If he can solve his propensity to give up the long ball, Pivetta could see improvement as soon as next season. With his skills, it might be worth a flyer.

Two injury-prone lefties in Los Angeles delivered on some of their promise in 2018. Andrew Heaney (e,k) and Tyler Skaggs (e,k) have shown, when healthy, they can be fantasy contributors. Heaney logged 180 IP with stellar skills (9.0 k/9, 2.3 bb/9, 12% SwK rate) and finished strong, all three of these metrics soaring in August and September. Skaggs fell victim to the DL once again. He has not been effective since returning from injury, so it remains to be seen if he can recapture his early 2018 magic.

Finding a pitcher in spacious Petco Park is always a bonus. Trouble is, the Padres rebuild has produced few fantasy relevant arms. This trend could be changing. Joey Lucchesi (e,k) has put together a nice 2018. His 4.14 ERA could scare some off next season. We would be wise to consider an opportunity to roster his skills, particularly his 2nd half line (10.5 k/9, 3.9 k/bb, 12% SwK rate). If he can (cue broken record) rectify his HR/fly ball rate (19%) his actual ERA could get closer to his xERA (3.69).