BABS and points league observations
by Justin Cary
BABS is a great tool to identify skills and asset groups that can assist you in grabbing value to reap profits in order to win leagues. However, marrying BABS to a points league can be more difficult than in a typical Rotisserie format. There is some variation in how points leagues are scored but most approach the batters the same, effectively getting a point per base (single is a point, double is two points, and so on), with an additional point for a run, and two for an RBI. Below are some observations that can be helpful in drafting/managing a points league using BABS.
Strikeouts are critical for valuing hitters: In leagues where a strikeout is a negative point, you will need to make adjustments to the BABS asset groups. For example, late round choices in the (S+) group include Jarrod Dyson and Mallex Smith. Although their skill sets in rotisserie would project to a similar performance, Dyson’s strikeout rate is 14% in comparison to Smith at 22%. As a result, Dyson’s points per AB is 0.89 versus 0.68 for Smith (30% higher). This observation can be applied to any asset group. As such, extreme strikeout rates should be avoided or values adjusted for players like Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo (pictured), Trevor Story, Byron Buxton, and Eric Thames.
Homerun specialists are more valuable than stolen base specialists: (P+) or (S+) asset groups can provide boosts to your HR or SB totals in a Rotisserie setting depending on your need. Points leagues attempt to level the playing field by boosting points for stolen bases. They can be as much as 3 or 4 points per SB. For example, looking at the difference between Billy Hamilton and Khris Davis with similar ADPs, Khris Davis performed 30% better in a points league (point per AB basis) due to the additional damage of his home runs. The difference between Byron Buxton and Justin Upton is similar at 28%, in favor of Upton. As you manage your team in a points league during the year, buy the power and sell speed.
Playing time matters: This is an obvious advantage for all leagues. But specifically, starting pitchers can elevate an average skill set in points leagues due to the added points of innings pitched. Jeff Samardzija, Rick Porcello, and Gio Gonzalez might not be highly ranked in BABS, but they can eat innings which is valuable.
(ER) skill is slightly more valuable than (KK) skill in points leagues: Is there a difference between Zack Greinke and Aaron Nola or Chris Archer and Yu Darvish? The edge goes to the first duo in points leagues, but only slightly. Given the skills projected by BABS, the 2017 points per inning indicates a 5% upside in the (ER,k) group versus the (e,KK) group. Furthermore, the (ER) skill set will outperform the (KK) skill set by 15%.
High quality middle relievers are not as valuable: Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Chris Devenski and David Robertson are pitchers who can be drafted in Rotisserie setups due to their exceptional skills that help your strikeout totals, ERA, and WHIP. However, points leagues typically reward you for saves and wins. Owners should speculate on potential closers.
Elite closers are worth more in points leagues: A typical points league values a save equally or close to a win which can provide significant points to your team. Some leagues even have deductions for blown saves and accompanying losses. Therefore, elite closers should be valued higher in points leagues.