BABS analyzes the trade deadline moves

by Doug Gruber

It was a crazy last few hours, especially the final minutes, as the new MLB “single” trade deadline reached its conclusion. Now that the deadline has passed, what is most important for us and our fantasy teams is to get BABS’ assessment of the major transactions, not only for the players involved in the trades, but also for players who were not moved. The transaction list is long, so let’s get started.

Houston acquires SP Zack Greinke from AZ and SP Aaron Sanchez from Toronto.

By all accounts, the last second deal to send Zack Greinke to Houston was the one which had the biggest impact for World Series contending teams. BABS rates Greinke as the highest ranked starting pitcher (ER,k) who was traded, and he should benefit from being with a much better offensive team along with a superior pen. Combined with Gerrit Cole (E+,K+) and Justin Verlander (ER,K+), the Astros Big 3 becomes the strongest trio in the American League, and lines up nicely to the top starters for both the Dodgers — Hyun-Jin Ryu (E+,k), Walker Buehler (ER,KK), and Clayton Kershaw (ER,k) — and Nationals —  Max Scherzer (E+,K+), Stephen Strasburg (ER,KK). and Patrick Corbin (ER,KK). And of course, the Astros have far superior quality and depth for the balance of their staff, even though the Nationals made moves to try to improve their back end. More on that later.

What about the impact for the Astros for the remainder of the regular season? After all, our fantasy leagues do not carry forward into the post-season. With Wade Miley likely entrenched as the 4th starter, the playing time “losers” are the remaining arms competing for the occasional 5th spot. BABS says newcomer Aaron Sanchez (-ER) is a fantasy liability, but the Astros have this way of improving pitchers, especially those like Sanchez who have above average spin rates. He will likely get opportunities. BABS also reminds us that Sanchez demonstrated (ER,k) skills in 2016, when he posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 192 innings, so he could become the 5th arm. Other former starters such as Brad Peacock (KK), Josh James (K+|ER-), Jose Uriquidy (k|ER-) and Framber Valdez (k) likely will be relegated to bullpen work for the balance of the season, reducing their fantasy value.

Cleveland acquires OF Franmil Reyes and SP Logan Allen from SD, OF Yasiel Puig from Cincinnati. Reds acquire SP Trevor Bauer from Indians. SD acquires minor league OF Taylor Trammel from Reds.

Prior to this trade, the highest rated power bat for the Indians was catcher Roberto Perez (PW), who surprisingly has 18 home runs for the season despite entering the year with 21 homers in his five-year career. Only four other Tribe players possess modest power assets (p)…Carlos Santana, Frankie Lindor, Jake Bauers, and Jordan Luplow. BABS rates Franmil Reyes (PW,a) and Yasiel Puig (p), bringing a critically-needed power infusion to the Indians lineup. With 27 and 22 home runs respectively, Reyes and Puig join Carlos Santana as players with 20+ long flies in this lineup…still not at the power level of the Twins and Yankees, but BABS says it is a big step forward.

The price for the power addition was steep, as Trevor Bauer (e,KK) is one of the most reliable, skillful arms in this modern era where pitching effectively every 5th game is a valuable player to own. For the Reds, Bauer (pictured) joins two other skilled pitchers in Luis Castillo (E+,KK) and Sonny Gray (e,KK) to form a formidable staff core. For the Indians, replacing Bauer in the rotation will depend on the return to health of Corey Kluber (ER,KK – on draft day), Carlos Carrasco (ER,KK) and Danny Salazar (e,KK), the latter making his first appearance since the 2017 ALDS. Premium assets for sure, but can they become healthy and return to form before season end?

The Indians also acquired LHP Logan Allen, who BABS rated (E+,k) as her second highest minor league pitcher for 2018. Those skills haven’t yet translated to big league success in Allen’s first 25 innings while with the Padres.

For OF prospect Taylor Trammell, who is the only player that SD received in this 3-way trade, BABS says it is too early to assess whether this youngster has the skills to match his MLB prospect hype. His surface stats at Double-A this year have been below expectations.

Cubs acquire OF Nicholas Castellanos from Tigers for two prospects, and OF Tony Kemp from Astros.

Free-agent-to-be Nick Castellanos (PW,a) was acquired by the Cubs, and according to BABS, he becomes an asset upgrade over Albert Almora (SB,a), Jason Heyward (s,a), Kyle Schwarber (PW|-AV) and Ian Happ (-AV). Tony Kemp brings OF and 2B versatility to Chicago, however, BABS says he doesn’t possess any valuable hitting assets. If BABS had her say, a preferred scenario in the new crowded Cubs OF would be Castellanos in RF, Heyward in CF, and an Almora/Schwarber platoon in LF.

Other Batter Trade Deadline Transactions:

Corey Dickerson was traded from Pittsburgh to the cross-state rival Phillies. BABS says Dickerson is a big upgrade over Adam Haseley, albeit the rookie’s sample size is still small. The Phillies now have four skillful OFs in Dickerson (p,AV), Jay Bruce (P+,a), Bryce Harper (PW) and Scott Kingery (PW,s,AV).

For San Diego, Franmil Reyes (PW,a) was expendable with Hunter Renfroe profiling as a similar player with more power (P+,a). The beneficiaries of the Reyes departure will be Manny Margot (S+|-AV) and Wil Myers (p,s|-AV) and perhaps toolsy Franchy Cordero (p,SB,a… in a small sample).

San Francisco took a chance and acquired Scooter Gennett from the Reds. Prior to his pre-season injury, BABS listed Gennett as (p,AV) supported by his combined 2017-18 seasons where he hit over .300 with 50 home runs. Only his health and light-hitting Joe Panik stand in the way of full time at bats for Gennett.

For Cincinnati, BABS says the options to replace Puig and Gennett are not as enticing. In the OF, neither Philip Ervin nor Josh VanMeter carry the necessary assets, although both have hit above .300 in their limited action. A platoon seems most likely. Gennett’s departure provides another chance for both Jose Peraza and Derek Dietrich. For the season to date, BABS favors Dietrich (PW), as Peraza’s skills (draft rating SB,a) have not translated to production in 2019.

Jesus Aguilar gets a fresh start in Tampa, but BABS says his (p|-AV) skills are a far cry from his 2018 breakout season. Aguilar will likely be limited to platoon duty versus LHP. For Milwaukee, Eric Thames (P+) becomes the full time 1Bman, although the Brewers will call up 22-year-old Trent Grisham based on his torrid .381/.471/.776 slash line and 13 home runs in 34 Triple-A games. BABS says be cautious with Grisham, as she rated him (-AV) as a hitting liability based on his 2018 minor league season.

Other Pitcher Trade Deadline Transactions:

The Mets went from possible sellers to buyers and acquired SP Marcus Stroman from Toronto. BABS says Stroman’s skills (e) do not correlate to his current sub-3.00 ERA, although he moves to a more favorable park and away from the AL East.

Several other teams acquired starting pitchers, but BABS does not view these acquisitions as ones that will add value to the buying clubs or your fantasy teams. The Phillies traded for Jason Vargas from the Mets. BABS does not think Vargas (-ER) has the skills to be the upgrade Philly is looking for. Oakland acquired SPs Tanner Roark (-) from the Reds and Homer Bailey (-ER) from the Royals. BABS says be cautious as neither pitcher brings the assets.

Similar, the Brewers were in desperate need to upgrade their rotation, exacerbated by the injury to Brandon Woodruff (e,KK), the Crew’s most talented SP. The results? How about three pitchers with identical profiles…Jordan Lyles (k|-ER), Drew Pomeranz (k|-ER) and Jacob Faria (draft rating k|-ER). BABS is skeptical of the new Brewer SPs, but she is most surprised over the price the Brewers paid in the Pomeranz deal. She rates prospect Mauricio Dubon as a triple asset hitter (p,s,AV) who has performed well at Triple-A again this season. He could become a MI piece for the Giants, perhaps as soon as this season.

BABS also rates Andrew Cashner and Trevor Richards as pitching liabilities (-ER) as they move to their new homes in Boston and Tampa, respectively.

On the relief pitcher side, three teams publicly stated their goal to significantly improve the depth and quality of their bullpens. BABS sees mixed results in their trade outcomes.

In Atlanta, while BABS says Luke Jackson (E+,K+) has the significant skills to be the closer, the results lately have not been of championship caliber. The Braves added Detroit closer Shane Greene (E+,k), Rangers Chris Martin (ER,k) and former closer Mark Melancon (e) from the Giants. BABS says, “nice job!”

The Twins added Miami closer Sergio Romo (k|-ER) and Sam Dyson (E+,k) from the Giants. Dyson has demonstrated good skills the past two seasons in the National League, after a disastrous 2017 campaign in the AL.

Finally, in Washington, the Nats front office made it clear that they intended to make major changes and significantly improve on a staff bullpen ERA of approximately 6.00. The Nationals acquired three experienced arms, although BABS doesn’t rate the trio as bringing the skills necessary to create the major improvements needed. From Seattle, the Nationals traded for both pitchers who have been the Mariner’s closers this season…Hunter Strickland (KK|-ER) and Roenis Elias (k). They also acquired Daniel Hudson (e,k) from the Blue Jays. Good, not great!

Both Seattle and Miami will now need to find a new solution at closer. BABS says Ryan Stanek (e,KK), acquired from Tampa, may have the skills to close in Miami. In Seattle, Austin Adams (E+,K+) could become the guy, but a shoulder injury has kept him out since early July.

Only two months to go! BABS wishes you luck as you turn this flurry of trade deadline deals into transactions that further help your fantasy teams.