August scorecard of BABS 2019 pre-season ratings
by Doug Gruber
We know that BABS offers us a unique perspective for fantasy baseball ratings. Her pre-season ratings provide us with rankings based on assets and liabilities, as opposed to a precise stat line. And we also know that for the early rounds of our drafts, conventional wisdom is “You can’t win your draft in the first few rounds, but you can certainly lose it.”
Accordingly, how is BABS doing so far in 2019? Let’s look at the top ranked full-time batters based on our BABS 2019 pre-season ratings and compare it to season-to-date stats for 5×5 categories. The top rated batters are shown below, listed in BABS order within their ADP draft rounds.
First Round ADP:
Mookie Betts (PW,SB,A+*)
Mike Trout (P+,s,AV*|inj-)
Jose Ramirez (p,s,A+*)
Christian Yelich (p,s,A+*)
JD Martinez (P+,AV*|Rg-)
Trea Turner (S+,a)
Ronald Acuna (PW,s,a|inj-,e)
Jose Altuve (s,A+|inj-)
In a nutshell, BABS successfully rated many batters worthy of our first-round selection for 2019. The obvious ones start with Trout. If the season ended today, Trout will have already earned his draft ranking…42/98/.296 with 103 runs and 10 stolen bases, but we still have more than five weeks remaining to amass even more stats. For Yelich, many expected regressions after his 2018 MVP season of 36/110/.326, with 118 runs and 22 SBs. Check out 2019 so far. 41/89/.332, 89 runs, 24 SBs. He is on pace for a 50/30 season, exceeding last year’s MVP performance.
Ronald Acuna has also been a fantasy monster. BABS rated Acuna as one of the rare triple asset players but was a bit leery of the risks. In 2019, Acuna has proven to be all assets and no liabilities to the tune of 36/87/.298 with 106 runs and 29 SBs. He is clearly top 3 amongst fantasy hitters with Trout and Yelich, and perhaps has a slight edge with his stolen base total.
For Ramirez and Altuve, the quick reaction might be that both have not come close to delivering first round value. And based on their first two months, which tend to carry heavy bias, the numbers were well below their historical brilliance; in Ramirez’s case, they were awful. But let’s judge them based on their full body of work.
Ramirez: 20/75/.255 with 65 runs and 24 SBs. Altuve: 23/56/.299 with 68 runs and 5 SBs. Okay, BABS agrees that neither has yet to return first round value this year. However, based on their most recent two months, they may yet earn it. How do the past six weeks look? Ramirez 46 for 138 (.333), 12 HRs, 38 RBIs, 8 SBs. Altuve 47 for 137 (.343), 11 HRs, 31 RBIs, 31 runs. First round worthy for sure.
Trea Turner had the misfortune of going down in the Nats’ fourth game with a broken bone in his hand from being hit by a pitch. He missed six weeks but has recovered very nicely… 26 SBs with a .295 BA in 370 ABs, in line with his BABS rating. He could still win the NL SB title.
When it comes to Betts, he is down year over year in BA and SBs, His numbers are still very good… 21/65/.283 with an amazing 116 runs, but only 13 SBs. JD Martinez had an incredible year last year. He probably won’t reach it this year, but his current stats are also very good… 29/77/.309.
Second Round ADP:
Trevor Story (P+,s,a|inj-)
Bryce Harper (P+,a*,Pk+|Nw)
Aaron Judge (P+,a*|INJ)
Giancarlo Stanton (P+,a*)
Charlie Blackmon (p,s,AV)
BABS was very high on Story heading into 2019, rating him as a triple asset hitter, ranked behind only Betts and Trout. And Story has delivered across all five categories…28/74/.296 with 93 runs and 18 bags. Owners who grabbed Story in the 2nd round based on BABS’ ranking have been well rewarded. Harper’s power production has accelerated in recent weeks, with eight home runs and 19 RBIs in his last 13 games. His season totals to date of 27/92 along with an OBP of .373 correlate well with his March (P+,a*) rating.
The Yankee sluggers have obviously been a disaster for owners who have selected them, due to injuries. Between the two, they have logged only 80 games (Judge 71, Stanton 9), and Judge has 13 of the 14 home runs. BABS correctly identified the INJ risk for Judge, however, while Stanton has had other injury-ruined seasons in his past, he had teased us with consecutive seasons with 600 ABs, leading to nearly 100 total HRs over those two campaigns. Not this year.
On the other hand, Blackmon, despite missing more than two weeks, has delivered 27/72/.330 along with 95 runs scored. The only bummer in his stat line is the 2 SBs, likely ending a string of 5 consecutive double-digit SB years.
Third Round ADP:
Rhys Hoskins (P+,a*|e)
Adalberto Mondesi (p,S+|inj-,EX)
Mondesi was on pace for 60 SBs, fully justifying his S+ rating, until a shoulder injury cost him more than a month of playing time. Despite the missed games, Mondesi is still 2nd in the league with 31 steals, and he is expected back soon. Hoskins got out of the gate quickly, but his current stat line of 24/70/.239 says he needs a hot finish to deliver on draft expectations.
Other top BABS skills, along with their ADP:
Dee Gordon (S+,AV) – 8th round
Justin Turner (PW,A+|INJ) – 8th round
Mallex Smith (S+,a|inj-,Nw,Rg-) – 7th round
Amed Rosario (S+,a|e) – 10th round
Matt Carpenter (P+,a*) – 5th round
Jesus Aguilar (P+,a|e) – 6th round
These players were all included in high-skilled BABS asset groups, with mediocre ADPs making them potential draft day bargains. Looking at the speed guys listed above, Mallex Smith leads MLB in steals with 34, making him a valuable player in a declining stolen base environment. Only a lower than expected batting average has kept him from utilizing his extreme speed asset. For Gordon, two separate quad injuries have hampered his ability to get on base and utilize his exceptional speed tools. He has stolen 18 bases in 304 ABs to go with a .276 average. Rosario has been a big contributor to the Mets’ late season success, and savvy BABS owners have enjoyed his 15 steals and .292 BA.
Justin Turner has been solid, hovering around the .300 mark, and hammering 11 home runs in the last five weeks, bringing his season to date total to 22 long flies. He is on pace to deliver BABS’ expectations. On the other hand, BABS has been very disappointed with the lack of power production from both Carpenter and Aguilar. Carp’s issues have been related to ongoing back ailments, which have led to a huge fall-off in ISO, hr/fb and hard hit balls. Aguilar does not appear to be injured (we never know for sure), but BABS certainly expected more than nine home runs from a slugger who exhibited extreme power skills throughout 2018.
SUMMARY: For hitters in the top asset groups heading into this season, the scorecard reads as follows: 10 hitters have met/exceeded expectations. five are close and could join the group of 10 before the end of the season based on their recent trends. About five will likely fall short. That’s a pretty darn good scorecard!