August 2019 BABS Update – Pitchers
by Doug Gruber
With three quarters of the season now behind us, not surprisingly, the cream has risen to the top in the pitching pool. The number of double asset pitchers has dwindled, especially for the starters.
In fact, BABS lists only 22 full time starting pitchers who possess dual assets for the season. Only eight more contribute a single asset. That’s not a lot to go around — an average of only two per owner in 15-team leagues — making these 30 prized arms very valuable for this season. If you own more than the average, chances are you are well positioned in your leagues in most pitching categories.
Only two starting pitcher have earned the top BABS rating of (E+,K+). Gerrit Cole (pictured), who recently became the second fastest pitcher to reach 200 Ks in a season (Randy Johnson’s 2001 season being the quickest), has treated his owners to a spectacular season so far. 14 wins, 2.87 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a league leading 226 strikeouts. Max Scherzer once again has been what you would expect for an early first round pick (2.41 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.7 K/9), although he has missed a few starts in recent weeks with shoulder and back issues.
A notch behind in skills is Justin Verlander (ER, K+), although his current WHIP of 0.85 is the best in baseball for full-time starters. This is despite Verlander’s claims regarding the new baseballs.
Only three other full-time starters have possessed extreme skills to date. Hyun-Jin Ryu (E+) has continued his brilliant season, especially with his ratios. He current sits with a microscopic ERA of 1.45 and a WHIP of 0.93. Both Chris Sale (e,K+) and Robbie Ray (e,K+) have flashed the extreme strikeout skills, and have racked up 403 Ks between them in only 287 innings.
When looking through the list of the 30 starters with at least one positive asset, you would have had to pay up at draft time to acquire nearly all of these arms. Only a few were available late in drafts. Two notable standouts have been Tigers ace Matthew Boyd (e,KK) and Rangers workhorse Lance Lynn (e,k), both of whom could have been acquired in the end game or reserve rounds.
And kudos to BABS! To her credit, she predicted almost all of these highly skilled starters. Boyd, Lynn and the Braves’ Julio Teheran (e) were the only three pitchers out of the 30 that BABS didn’t rate as double asset starters going into 2019. Food for thought as we start to plan for next season.
Top closers have been even more scarce. BABS lists only 12 with SV ratings, further evidence of a continuing decline of reliable 9th inning arms. Five of the 12 have achieved a perfect BABS closer rating of (E+,K+,SV). Names that have been consistently good all season…. Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Brad Hand, Will Smith and Kirby Yates. Next closest is former-Tiger-now-Brave Shane Greene (E+,KK,SV), who unfortunately has had a rough beginning to his time in Atlanta.
Three names who have emerged as significant skilled closers, who weren’t in the closer discussion to begin the season, are Liam Hendriks, Emilio Pagan and Brandon Workman. BABS rates each as (E+,K+,sv-). Hendriks has run with the Oakland job after injuries to Blake Treinen and has kept the job even after Treinen’s return. And why wouldn’t he, based on a 1.35 ERA and 83 strikeouts in only 60 innings. Pagan has been far more reliable than Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo, both who began the year as the favorites to close for the Rays. And Workman still seems to be Boston’s best option, despite management’s proclamations that Nathan Eovaldi would assume the closer role.
Sorting the August update by team, BABS shows that Houston, the Dodgers and Washington all have three high quality starting pitchers, as the pennant races head down the stretch. The Yankees, on the other hand, have four of their five starters (Paxton, Tanaka, Happ and Sabathia) carrying BABS ratings of -ER, not exactly the skilled arms that generally are needed for playoff success.
For bullpens, Cleveland has made up 11 games on the Twins since the beginning of June, based largely on a league-leading ERA from their relievers. BABS says this has not been a fluke, as the Tribe has a deep group of talented relief pitchers, led by Hand (E+,K+,SV) but also including Nick Goody (E+,K+), Oliver Perez (ER,KK), Tyler Clippard (e,KK) and Nick Wittgren (ER,k).
Looking at some emerging starting pitchers, BABS lists Zac Gallen (ER,K+), recently traded from Miami to Arizona as having the skills to match his early success (2.58 ERA and 52 Ks in 45 innings). Cleveland’s Aaron Civale (E+,KK) has been very good in his first few starts, although the sample is still small. BABS also says Dinelson Lamet (e,K+) is flashing extreme strikeout skills as he returns to the Padres rotation following Tommy John surgery which cost him all of 2018 and half of 2019.
On the other hand, notable pitchers who have fallen the farthest from their pre-season ratings include Masahiro Tanaka (k|-ER) and Chris Archer (KK|-ER). But the award for the biggest SP disappointment goes to former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (-ER). Porcello’s 5.63 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a pedestrian K/9 rate likely has caused his fantasy owners to do damage to their own TV screens, long before Porcello took out his own frustrations on the dugout television monitors.
Note that this is the final BABS database update of the 2019 season. While we will continue to publish articles weekly, the next database update will be posted at the conclusion of the season.