Assessing risk in a team context
This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider.
One week into the season, there are already more than two dozen players from the ADP Top 300 who are either on the disabled list or demoted to the minors. Roster churn waits for nobody.
But it reminds us that team evaluation is not just an analysis of each club’s assets. Analysts might have conveniently separated the 30 teams into three groups – contenders, wannabes and “no possible ways” – but many of those assessments look at only half the picture.
Let’s look at the other half.
Shaping each team’s destiny over the next six months is also a set of risk factors. We don’t often see teams ranked based on the factors that might impact their potential to live up to our projections, but they are just as important. For those still trying to figure out who is on their roster, and who might already be considering trade offers, team context matters.
There are two variables I like to consider: health and experience. I reviewed these variables for the core players on all 30 clubs and then ranked the teams based on the propensity for risk to impact their 2018 potential.
Health: I have discussed MLB’s burgeoning disabled list in previous articles. To the extent that past injuries are predictive of future injuries, we can look at each player’s track record and draw some rough conclusions.
For each batter and pitcher, I calculated the number of days spent on the DL over the past three years. I gave greater negative weight to those players who had DL time in more than one of those years. I weighted recent injuries a bit more and those players who are currently hurt were dinged even more. And then I ranked the rosters, from least to most risk.
Experience: Assessing experience is mostly about accumulating a large enough playing time sample to trust that a player’s performance is real. Just like we would never draw conclusions about a player going 5 for 10, even a 300-AB sample provides less credibility than a 1000-AB sample.
The more “inexperienced” players that a team has on its roster, the greater the likelihood for performance volatility and a wider error bar on all projections. Experienced teams are more stable and projectable. I assessed each team’s roster, tabbing hitters’ career experience at the 500-AB and 1000-AB marks, and pitchers at the 150-IP and 300-IP marks (with relievers at half those levels). And then I ranked the rosters, from most to least experienced.
Here is a look at the contenders and where they rank in terms of risk. Higher ranks equates to better health and more experience. Lower ranks reflect more injury risk and less experience.
As if the Houston Astros don’t already have enough going for them, they also rank second overall in terms of fewest risk factors (Baltimore ranks first). The injury histories of Lance McCullers, Dallas Keuchel (pictured) and Charlie Morton leave the Astros ranked 17th in pitching injury risk, but that is their lowest rank. They are 9th in batting health, 6th in batting experience and 4th in pitching experience. Overall, the combination of their immense assets and few liabilities puts them in an excellent position to challenge for the title again.
Right behind them on the list is the Chicago Cubs. They ranked no lower than 8th in any risk category except for batter experience, where they come in at 22nd. As much as we hold great optimism for their offensive attack, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora and Ian Happ each have fewer than 1000 at bats at the major league level. That 1000-AB benchmark determines when batters can be considered “fully formed commodities,” and that quartet falls a bit short.
Ranked 4th overall in least risk are the Minnesota Twins, who also have one of the more balanced risk profiles. They are ranked second overall in health (behind San Diego) and are no lower than 15th elsewhere (pitcher experience). Given that they are generally considered behind the Indians in the AL Central pecking order, their high risk rating might give them an edge to keep things closer.
However, the Cleveland Indians are no slouches either, ranked 9th overall. The Tribe’s offense is where there is most risk. Their 20th rank in batting health is driven by the spotty injury histories of Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis. Despite Danny Salazar’s nagging injuries, and the DL histories of Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller and Josh Tomlin, the Indians still rank 12th in pitching injury risk. They rank 10th or better in batter and pitcher experience.
The Boston Red Sox are ranked 12th overall. While they are mid-pack in most variables, they are killed by pitching injury risk (ranked 26th). David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and Carson Smith drive that rating. An overall rank of 8th in experience can’t offset the health concerns.
Diving deeper into risk, the Washington Nationals are 18th overall, a rank depressed by the health of their batters (ranked 28th). Despite the upside, there is a consistent track record of DL days associated with Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton and Michael Taylor. Fans can wish for good health, but fantasy owners who’ve invested in the “team” stats should temper expectations.
The deeper we dive, the more uncertainty there will be with the success of these teams. The New York Yankees are ranked 21st overall. Like the Nationals, they are driven by poor batter health (29th). Every one of their lineup regulars has some injury history, except for Brandon Drury, Brett Gardner and perhaps Giancarlo Stanton (though you could argue with that). There are some interesting prospects behind them, but the Yankee batters are already ranked 20th in experience risk.
Finally, the defending National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers will have to overcome their ranking of 25th in overall risk. Pitching health (29th) drives this rating, thanks to the health histories of rotation anchors Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
As if there were not enough challenges to overcome, the teams shouldering the most injury risk this season are the Mets, Angels and Rays. Unsurprisingly, those with the most experience risk are the Padres, A’s, Marlins, Phillies and White Sox.
It is the integration of each team’s assets and liabilities – a balance sheet approach, if you will – that provides a truer measure of overall potential.
Here is the complete ranking list:
| BATTERS | PITCHERS | OVERALL | |||||||
| LOW RISK | INJ | EXP | INJ | EXP | INJ | EXP | TOTAL | ||
| 1 | CIN | LAA | SD | TOR | SD | BAL | BAL | ||
| 2 | SD | SF | PIT | BAL | MIN | ARI | HOU | ||
| 3 | MIL | BAL | MIA | ARI | ATL | TOR | CHC | ||
| 4 | DET | ARI | CHC | HOU | CHC | HOU | MIN | ||
| 5 | MIN | TOR | STL | TEX | STL | TEX | TOR | ||
| 6 | ATL | HOU | MIN | LA | DET | LAA | ARI | ||
| 7 | CHC | MIL | NYY | CLE | PHI | SF | SD | ||
| 8 | PHI | WAS | ATL | CHC | CIN | BOS | TEX | ||
| 9 | HOU | KC | TOR | BOS | PIT | WAS | CLE | ||
| 10 | STL | MIN | PHI | NYM | MIA | CLE | SEA | ||
| 11 | BAL | PIT | SF | NYY | BAL | SEA | MIL | ||
| 12 | LAA | SEA | CLE | SEA | HOU | KC | BOS | ||
| 13 | BOS | TEX | DET | WAS | MIL | NYM | KC | ||
| 14 | SEA | COL | BAL | KC | SEA | LA | SF | ||
| 15 | CHW | BOS | ARI | MIN | CLE | CHC | ATL | ||
| 16 | KC | CLE | WAS | DET | TOR | MIN | CIN | ||
| 17 | LA | CIN | HOU | COL | KC | NYY | DET | ||
| 18 | TEX | STL | SEA | LAA | CHW | COL | WAS | ||
| 19 | COL | NYM | KC | TAM | BOS | MIL | STL | ||
| 20 | CLE | NYY | TEX | ATL | TEX | TAM | COL | ||
| 21 | PIT | TAM | TAM | SF | SF | CIN | NYY | ||
| 22 | OAK | CHC | CHW | MIL | COL | DET | PIT | ||
| 23 | TOR | LA | COL | PHI | ARI | ATL | LAA | ||
| 24 | SF | SD | CIN | CIN | NYY | PIT | PHI | ||
| 25 | MIA | ATL | OAK | OAK | OAK | STL | LA | ||
| 26 | ARI | OAK | BOS | SD | WAS | SD | NYM | ||
| 27 | NYM | DET | MIL | MIA | LA | OAK | MIA | ||
| 28 | WAS | CHW | NYM | CHW | NYM | MIA | CHW | ||
| 29 | NYY | MIA | LA | STL | LAA | PHI | OAK | ||
| 30 | TAM | PHI | LAA | PIT | TAM | CHW | TAM | ||
| HIGH RISK | |||||||||