Not Gambling? Seriously.
The following piece was published at BaseballHQ.com back on April 17, 2015. That was before the Fanduel/DraftKings legal implosion the following fall. And it was before last week’s Supreme Court decision leaving the legalization of sports betting to the states. The gambling landscape is changing. This article might be one of my greatest forecasting achievements. Maybe.…
Read MoreBABS charts early rookie progress
by Chris Doyle As Ron pointed out in his piece on Minor League BABS back in January, there’s one weakness in BABS’ analysis that can group players together who otherwise may not actually share similar skill sets. The example he cited was Austin Slater and Boog Powell, who had identical major league stats in 2017…
Read MoreBABL at the first mile marker
It’s May 15, and for me, that is an important date. Up until now, all we’ve been experiencing is statistical noise. And despite the fact that most stats never really stabilize fully, May 15 is the date I like to use to consider the “rough realness” of where my players and teams stand. This first…
Read MoreBABS May 2018 Update – Batters
by Chris Doyle Access the first BABS update of the season here. While we must remember that the small sample size caveat still exists, it’s nonetheless a fun and interesting exercise to try and spot the variances from pre-season rankings and attempt to explain or rationalize them. Here are some early takes: Humidor? What humidor?…
Read MoreBABS May 2018 Update – Pitchers
by Justin Cary We are a little more than a month in the season and the first BABS scan has arrived. Owners should be reminded that playing time represents less than 20% of the total year’s output. Be careful making assessments about skill sets. Instead, owners should be looking at skills confirmations, or what skill…
Read MoreEarly first round underperformers
This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider. When we draft players in the first round, or spend $30 or more for them in auctions, we expect them to provide a statistical foundation to our teams. Although we are only a month into the season, the fates of these players are likely tied tightly into…
Read MoreDeconstructing Didi Gregorius
by Chris Doyle As is often the case this early in the season, a look atop the leaderboards can make your head spin. This time last year we were marveling at Aaron Judge’s power display and wondering if it was for real. Fast forward 12 months and it’s another Bronx Bomber stealing the spotlight out…
Read MoreWho’s joining the $30 Club?
This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider. In a world where head-to-head games and snake drafts have become fantasy baseball’s standards, the industry began nearly 40 years ago as AL/NL-only Rotisserie auction leagues. Millions still play those games and there is an artifact from that format with utility for every style of play. Dollar…
Read MoreThe major impact of a minor rule change
Over its two decade existence, Tout Wars has been known to tinker with established rules in order to test different directions for our competitions. We were the first experts league to go 5×5, allow $0 FAAB bids and use the Vickrey Method for free agent acquisition. These were changes with major impact; however, even the…
Read MoreSurprise pitchers who could be for real
This is my weekly article for ESPN Insider. There is a reason why four starting pitchers had first round ADPs last month. Elite pitching is precious and scarce. So if there is any hint that some new stars could be emerging, free agent foragers will be all over them. Once again, he who hesitates is…
Read More