Are disappointing stars candidates for positive regression?

by Patrick Cloghessy

No one wants to admit the sunk cost of an expensive draft choice. But positive regression is still possible. It’s not too late for these frustrating few to be useful, even great fantasy players provided they at least approach historical skill levels.

Is Mookie Betts (p,s,a) nursing a World Series hangover? He’s still a triple threat, but we are accustomed to much more. Based on his assets at draft time (PW,SB,A+), we expected better than 11 HR, 33 RBI, a .266 BA with 7 SB. The 55 runs are nice, but he’s currently a $20 player. Betts’ last three seasons in terms of roto dollars earned: $52/$27/$45. His line drive percent is down, and FB percent is up. This could be a driver of the BA dip. More distance on his hard hit fly balls could see the power return. Without an increase in LD rate, the BA could continue to flounder. Betts’ hard contact is down a tick from 2018, but still above league average. There is hope. If Mookie is able to perform at his projected BABS assets level during the rest of the season, he would be closer to the 2019 assets of Christian Yelich (P+,SB,A+) or Austin Meadows (PW,s,A+).

What to make of Jose Ramirez (SB,-AV)? BABS’ projection (p,s,A+) was never a big believer in the power, but the precipitous drop in BA is confounding. From extreme asset to liability, it’s almost as if Ramirez’ BA skill has died. But maybe not. A .202 BABIP is largely to blame. It’s more difficult to decipher what’s up with Jose’s hard hit rate. One site shows him hitting it harder than ever (38%), while another has him at a four year low (30.8%). There was talk in the spring of Ramirez’ late 2018 struggles against breaking pitches, but in 2019, Jose’s ineffectiveness against fastballs is a major issue. With better luck, and more aptitude against fastballs, Ramirez could be nearer his (p,s,A+) projection. Think Juan Soto (p,s,AV) or Ronald Acuna (p,SB,a) this season, rather than Chris Owings (SB,-AV).

Paul Goldschmidt (p) has been here before: on a list about early season strugglers. Just last season, Goldy (pictured) underwhelmed the first two months, before tearing it up for the rest of the way. This is (at best) a minor consolation. It does not guarantee a repeat performance. At 31, are whispers of decline appropriate? Maybe not. Goldschmidt is hitting the ball hard again (42%). His BABIP (.306) is near league average, but about 50 points under his career (.352). His three year trend of barrel % could be the culprit (13.3,13.6,8.8). A few centimeters here, an eighth of an inch there, and more barrels might have him performing with his BABS draft assets (PW,AV).This would place him alongside the present skills of J.D. Martinez, Mike Moustakas and Charlie Blackmon.

Drafted for his premium speed, Lorenzo Cain (AV) has fallen short of expectations. Cain is now 33 years old, and additional years tend to coincide with a decline in SB totals. After earning $20+ in four of his last five seasons, Cain is on pace for his worst season since 2013. His .665 OPS is the lowest in that time frame. It’s hard to find a good argument against age-related decline. Without the fountain of youth, Cain may have difficulty regaining his projected asset mix (SB,AV), thus leaving him with others of the (AV) class, like Yadier Molina, Eric Hosmer and Adam Jones. If his old engine can get revved up, he would find himself back in the familiar territory of (SB,AV) mavens Starling Marte and Whit Merrifield. Seems like wishful thinking.

Trevor Bauer (e,KK) and Patrick Corbin (e,KK) were both among the top 13 SP drafted. While Bauer is currently ranked in the high teens (in roto $ earned), Corbin is in the 40s. Prior to Bauer’s recent CGSO, he was much further down the list. This is encouraging news for Bauer owners. Until Corbin goes on a run, or fires a game score like Bauer’s recent 87, he will continue to be a big disappointment. So it goes with attempts to rank players in-season. The results are continuously changing the score.

The results, in Bauer’s case, have declined concurrently with his K%, BB% and xFIP. His LOB% has dipped from 79.5% down nearer league average of 72.1%. Also trending in the wrong direction are Bauer’s barrel % (4.4 to 9.0%), exit velo (87 to 88.3%), and launch angle (11.2 to 14.2 degrees). This is a long way of saying that BABS may have been on to something when she tabbed Trevor as a (Rg) regression risk headed into 2019.

A similar picture is being painted of Corbin’s season. The same metrics are trending in the wrong direction: barrel %, exit velo, launch angle, K%, BB% and LOB%. This may all be attributable to a league-wide trend in an offensive direction. Or maybe BABS was (again) prescient in marking Corbin as a new team (Nw) liability.

It remains to be seen whether or not the breakouts of 2018 are repeatable for Bauer and Corbin. Thus far, it appears the answer is no. But there are more innings to come. To reach BABS’ projected assets (ER,KK), these two will have to swim upstream against regression. If able, they will float alongside Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg with skills among the best in the game.