2020 Starting Pitchers

(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

by Pat Cloghessy

Early in the 2020 draft season, 19 of the first 62 draft picks (ranked by ADP) are starting pitchers. Finding “value” at the top is increasingly difficult.

But remember: ADPs have very little relationship to player value. They are only good for setting market tendencies. Only five percent (5%!) of players will earn back their exact draft round and only one-in-three picks overall will return fair value.

Even by this nascent point, the market has settled enough that prior to spring training there will be little movement among starting pitchers. It will probably take a major news item to force a significant shift. In many cases, the differences are so slight that it’s pretty much, “pick one of these awesome pitchers”. Lucky for us, BABS can suss out the ostensibly negligible distinctions and make plain what sets two players apart. Or doesn’t. And it’s there where she really shines.

Here are the BABS ratings for starting pitchers who will potentially provide positive value to your team:

ASSETS

LIABILITIES

ADP

Starters

Pos

Inj

$40

Cole,Gerrit

NYY

E+

K+

$36

deGrom,Jacob

NYM

E+

K+

$32

Verlander,Justin

HOU

K+

$30

Scherzer,Max

WAS

K+

inj-

$27

Clevinger,Michael

CLE

K+

INJ

$23

Snell,Blake

TAM

K+

INJ

$22

Sale,Chris

BOS

K+

INJ

$30

Buehler,Walker

$27

Flaherty,Jack

STL

$25

Bieber,Shane

CLE

$25

Strasburg,Stephen

WAS

$20

Castillo,Luis

CIN

$20

Corbin,Patrick

WAS

$18

Kershaw,Clayton

inj-

$18

Morton,Charlie

TAM

$16

Glasnow,Tyler

TAM

INJ

191

Martinez,Carlos

STL

sv-

INJ

$16

Greinke,Zack

HOU

$14

Woodruff,Brandon

MIL

INJ

123

$11

Ryu,Hyun-Jin

TOR

inj-

$19

Giolito,Lucas

CHW

inj-

$19

Nola,Aaron

PHI

$17

Darvish,Yu

CHC

$15

Bauer,Trevor

CIN

$13

Paxton,James

NYY

INJ

$13

Kluber,Corey

TEX

INJ

102

$12

Ohtani,Shohei

LAA

INJ

102

$12

Ohtani,Shohei

LAA

INJ

110

$12

Carrasco,Carlos

CLE

INJ

123

$11

Lamet,Dinelson

INJ

131

$10

Lynn,Lance

TEX

192

McCullers,Lance

HOU

INJ

192

Price,David

BOS

inj-

197

Maeda,Kenta

396

-$1

Gausman,Kevin

INJ

435

-$2

Hill,Rich

MIN

INJ

476

-$3

Peacock,Brad

HOU

INJ

152

Ray,Robbie

ARI

K+

444

-$2

Peralta,Freddy

MIL

K+

$19

Paddack,Chris

$17

Severino,Luis

NYY

INJ

$16

Syndergaard,Noah

NYM

inj-

$14

Berrios,Jose

MIN

103

$12

Gray,Sonny

CIN

inj-

129

$10

Luzardo,Jesus

OAK

131

$10

Gallen,Zac

ARI

134

$10

Rodriguez,Eduardo

BOS

142

Fried,Max

ATL

inj-

163

Urias,Julio

191

Weaver,Luke

ARI

INJ

233

Tanaka,Masahiro

NYY

inj-

245

Gray,Jonathan

COL

inj-

303

Stripling,Ross

INJ

441

-$2

Wood,Alex

INJ

476

-$3

Pomeranz,Drew

712

-$7

Chatwood,Tyler

CHC

inj-

168

Boyd,Matt

DET

191

Heaney,Andrew

LAA

INJ

268

Archer,Chris

PIT

INJ

273

Kopech,Michael

CHW

INJ

325

German,Domingo

NYY

inj-

121

$11

Bumgarner,Madison

ARI

inj-

121

$11

Wheeler,Zack

PHI

123

$11

Montas,Frankie

OAK

172

Manaea,Sean

OAK

INJ

174

Marquez,German

COL

inj-

175

Minor,Mike

TEX

187

Odorizzi,Jake

MIN

213

Musgrove,Joe

PIT

226

Lucchesi,Joey

231

Urquidy,Jose

HOU

232

Keller,Mitch

PIT

253

Hamels,Cole

ATL

inj-

285

Richards,Garrett

INJ

297

Cease,Dylan

CHW

inj-

301

Pineda,Michael

MIN

INJ

368

Gibson,Kyle

TEX

415

-$1

Sheffield,Justus

SEA

436

-$2

Lindblom,Josh

MIL

627

-$5

Smyly,Drew

inj-

682

-$6

Pena,Felix

LAA

INJ

746

-$7

Andriese,Matt

LAA

inj-

104

$12

Soroka,Michael

ATL

160

Hendricks,Kyle

CHC

217

Stroman,Marcus

NYM

269

Keuchel,Dallas

CHW

224

Smith,Caleb

MIA

-E

inj-

521

-$4

Burnes,Corbin

MIL

-E

ASSETS: PT (Playing time), Er (Pitching Effectiveness), K (Strikeouts), Sv (Saves potential), Pk (Park help), Rg (Regression help). LIABILITIES: Sk (Skills risk), Inj (Injury), Ex (Inexperience), Nw (New team), Pk (Park hurt), Ag (Age decline), Rg (Regression hurt)

Last September, we forecasted what the top of the pitching pyramid might look like come 2020. Gerrit Cole (E+,K+) and Jacob deGrom (E+,KK) were no-brainers, and that has played out. BABS cosigns, but it’s the next group that enters the season with what should be at least a small amount of trepidation.

Five pitchers own the elite (ER,K+) asset mix. None escape the liabilities section of the balance sheet. Based on market value, the least concerning member is Justin Verlander. The only quibble: his advanced age. He has shown no signs of slowing down yet, so onward and upward (sideways?). After that, big names like Scherzer, Clevinger, Snell and Sale come with elevated injury risks. Overall, drafters seem willing to take the risk. Elite skills and high ceilings tend to make the risk/reward proposition more palatable.

For the more risk averse, the ER/KK group presents many great options.

These aren’t all of the workhorses in the SP pool, but it can get hairy hereafter. And quick.

Picture this: If we include all full- mid- and part-timers with the following asset mixes: (ER,k), (e,KK), (K+), (e,k), (KK), (k) and (e); that’s a total of 61 arms. Injury liabilities appear on the ledger of 31. Drafting an elite rotation anchor remains important, even imperative.

The largest groups from which to mine are (e,KK) and (e,K). This is where many rotations will be filled out. The problem is, both collections are bereft of projected IP totals north of 180. In the (e,KK) class, we have six full-time projections out of 16. The (e,k) lot does even worse, with three of 16.

Hailing from the ranks of (e,KK) are Aaron Nola, Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer. All come with full-time innings projections. None are inhibited by injury liabilities. Lucas Giolito has consecutive 170+ IP seasons on his record. Still, he’s tabbed as a slight injury risk. Can he take the next step up? Corey Kluber checks in as a risky full-timer, and Lance Lynn is maybe the most bankable of the entire group. These six comprise the “take the bump every 5th day” contingent of this asset group.

The risk/reward types like James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco and Dinelson Lamet are not to be ignored, but understand what comes with the upside. Hint: It’s downside. Players of this ilk often come with IL stays, and that means scouring the waiver wire (not always the worst thing, pitching can and will crop up).

Jose Berrios, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez are the three members of the (e,k) category slated for 180+ IP. Berrios and Gray are going off in the 90-100th pick range. More expensive options in this class are Chris Paddack (ADP 55), Luis Severino (62) and Noah Syndergaard (73). Rodriguez’ current cost is ADP 134.

Also dwelling in this asset class are young talents like Jesus Luzardo, Zach Gallen, Max Fried and Julio Urias. Naturally, they will cost (sometimes a lot) more than veterans Masahiro Tanaka, Luke Weaver and Jon Gray. All have their warts. For the youthful ones, we just haven’t necessarily witnessed them on the big stage quite yet. They have that untainted potential. Until it gets tainted, then the balloon pops.

It seems almost impossible to avoid the ugly INJ or EX marks on our rosters. Fear not. BABS will, at first, whisper (via the compiled ticks on the liability side), then amplify more audibly (she doesn’t yell) reminders of how much water is entering the boat. Row carefully.

NOTES: The chart above may vary slightly from the latest database update which was run after this analysis was written. To engage with other readers on this topic, head over to the Reader Forums. If you have a question that would be best answered by one of our experts and benefit everyone, submit it on our Contact Page and put MAILBAG in the Subject Line.