2020 Asset Group Analysis – (ER,KK)
Asset groups are a key component of the BABS system. They are our means to assemble players with comparable skills profiles and then review how the marketplace ranks them. The philosophy is that, if several players are comparable, they should be valued at about the same level. As described in Chapter 2 of The BABS Project 3.0, that’s is not always the case, It is here where we can uncover numerous opportunities to build profit into our rosters.
These Asset Group Analyses will highlight some of the more interesting groups. Here is a sample now; there will be more in the February 19 update.
Near the top of the draft board is this group of eight pitchers, all with Significant pitching effectiveness and strikeout skill. The variability around their ERA and K rates is wide enough that they could well finish in any randomly sorted order. That’s what BABS is all about.
The marketplace rates seven other starting pitchers with better skill, comprising three higher asset groups. This year, the market seems to be doing a pretty good job of aligning skill with worth. But it’s not perfect.
Walker Buehler is currently going 17th in drafts, but BABS identifies three higher-skilled arms being drafted behind him — Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and Chris Sale. Granted, that trio all has (INJ) liabilities that could be depressing their ADPs, but Buehler has yet to eclipse even 185 innings in a season, so it might be premature to rank him this high.
Thankfully, BABS sees several other viable options. Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber and Stephen Strasburg can all be grabbed later in the second round with no loss of skill, and a clean liabilities slate to boot. Even fourth rounders Luis Castillo and Patrick Corbin offer identical profiles. Imagine! If you miss on Buehler, you can save $10 on a Castillo or Corbin, and the variability of their expected output won’t likely affect your bottom line.
Clayton Kershaw and Charlie Morton are options as well, though you will lose innings with these Mid-timers and their minor liabilities increase the risk a bit.
In all, given the paucity of liabilities, this is one of the safest asset groups to fish in.