June 2019 BABS Update – Batters

by Patrick Cloghessy

Is it really June already? Here’s what’s up with some of the batters from the BABS June 3 update.

Entering 2019, David Dahl (p,A+) was a desirable commodity. After returning from injury in late 2018, Dahl (pictured) posted a huge September. That, and a mile-high home field made a recipe for selection in the 5th or 6th round. No small investment.

To date, Dahl’s surface stats may be a bit disappointing (he did spend some time on the IL). If he can hold his BABS assets, Dahl could be in line for solid production ROS.

If the above is plausible, then it’s also reasonable to conclude that everyone’s favorite sleeper could do the same. That’s right, Hunter Pence (p,A+), has been stroking the ball like Dahl. Globe Life Park is, by many metrics, the second most generous park to hit in. Pence’s hard hit rate (48%) would be his career best. Being bullish on Dahl might be congruent to being bullish on Pence.

Rhys Hoskins (P+,a) brings the thunder while not hurting BA. This is the type of asset portfolio we have come to expect from Hoskins. At one time it was probably considered a stereotypical skill pairing for an elite fantasy first baseman. Eventually, everything turns retro. Why not fantasy first basemen? Pete Alonso and Luke Voit have the vintage skills (P+,a) too.

As yet, there has been no sophomore slump for Ronald Acuna (p,SB,a). There may be consternation over his performance in relation to draft status, but overall a nice follow-up (so far). Call it the unevenness of young players on display. Viewed through the lens of Acuna’s expectations, this does appear to be a step back. Filtered through the kaleidoscopic early career of Byron Buxton (p,SB,a), these assets appear as a nice surprise. A step forward, even. Linearity, hah! That’s a pipe dream. An old wives’ tale.

Josh Bell and George Springer (PW,A+) are running with elite company. We don’t even blink when Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman appear with these assets. History, and our trained brains tell us they can and should continue at this level. Should we be skeptical of Bell and Springer? Maybe not completely. For this season, this quartet haa surpassed the number of plate appearances typically indicative of reliability in stats like: HR rate, ISO, and contact rate (a strong sub-indicator of BA). Springer HR/12.7 PA, .335 ISO, 21 K%) and Bell (HR/14 PA, .350 ISO, 21 K%)  might be able to stay alive as elite fantasy producers.

Using the same measuring stick, should we be concerned with the SB,-AV group? Jose Ramirez, Andrew Benintendi and Victor Robles comprise this speedy, batting average dragging set. It’s probably fair to say that Robles has given, at least on the surface, what was expected: speed and some power with questionable BA. Ramirez and Benintendi, however, cost a bunch in draft capital. The losses are real, and realized. At least so far. As we can see, speed has not suffered, but Ramirez’ power outage is especially concerning. His hard hit % has remained steady over a three year period, but the ISO has dropped off the table (.265, .282, .107!!!). Benintendi’s three year K%: 17, 16, 24. Something is rotten in Cleveland (and Boston).

Huge power, batting average, mid-time status (M|P+,AV). That’s what Hunter Renfroe, Joc Pederson, Derek Dietrich and (checks notes) Pablo Sandoval bring to the table in 2019.  These men are all taking advantage of less than full-time AB. There are zero full-timers with this asset mix. In BABSian, they are Trevor Story (P+,s,AV) without the speed, and fewer plate appearances. Extrapolating this group’s production into full-time AB is probably a fool’s errand. Warts against similar-handed pitching might get magnified, tarnishing their present shine. Mid-time players producing at this level are certainly roster-worthy. Without a bench, it’s harder to stomach if they are struggling.

Could Yasmani Grandal (PW,s,a) have landed in a better spot? He’s helping his team, sure. But more importantly, Grandal is brewing up kegs of fantasy stats. Those who drafted him are buzzed on power, batting average and speed. Speed? Craig Counsell’s team runs, and Grandal participates. Also participating in multiple categories are Grandal’s mates in the (PW,s,a) group: Brandon Lowe and Jake Marisnick. We talk often about paths to playing time. These are three disparate paths to BABS triple threat status. Grandal has takes advantage of a green light, Lowe’s power was on display in Tampa and Triple-A last season. His speed was not thought to be an asset. Maybe it’s more a product of the Rays’ willingness to run. No complaints here. Marisnick has under 125 AB, but his arrow may be pointing up. The Astros have been beset by injuries. With those assets and AB in the offing, everything’s Jake. For now.