BABSian speculations on 6 early surgers

by Pat Cloghessy

Three weeks into the season. Can we take stock of what we’ve seen so far? Well, yes. It’s what we do. What pitchers are ready to take the next step up? Are there any rising power sources?

So many questions, but we can hypothesize.

Look at the leaders in isolated power. The usual suspects are accounted for. Pete Alonso feels like he has always been in that company, doesn’t he? But Willson Contreras? Has something clicked? Marcell Ozuna is a house on fire. Christian Walker has shown plenty of pop in the minors. Maikel Franco, Austin Meadows and Dansby Swanson also make appearances.

Within this list of ISO leaders, we may find some players primed for a power asset upgrade in the next BABS update. The May release will only tell us what has happened so far, but if some of these “newcomers” or “power asset risers” can hold their gains, a profitable season could be in the works.

There may not be enough evidence that breakouts are coming, but the hot starts have whet our appetites. We are excited to see if the seeds planted in April will germinate in the warmer months.

We don’t know who will sustain, and who will fade. We could, however, guess the BABS assets. What will she have to say come May? Let’s speculate.

What has gotten into Willson Contreras (a)? Maybe we are seeing the old adage, “once you display a skill, you own it” in action. Contreras’ BABS assets in 2016 (PW,a) and 2017 (p,a) both pointed to a young player with power potential. The mess he made of 2018 resulted in the loss of confidence in his pop. How has he gone from disappointing under-performer to April MVP candidate? It’s early, but the answer could lie in a steep GB rate reduction. Willson is hitting it in the air more and good things are happening. Asset Prediction: (PW,a)

Austin Meadows (p,s,a) was somewhat of a wild card coming into the season. The skills were intriguing, but the small sample brought with it lingering doubt. Kevin Cash’s willingness to put Meadows on the lineup card everyday has paid handsome dividends. Is he really Yelich Lite, or something less? Either way, Austin is a lineup mainstay until proven otherwise. Asset Prediction: (PW,s,a)

Once thought of as the steal of the Shelby Miller deal, Dansby Swanson (|-AV,inj-) was barely a thought at all this draft season. Despite his top prospect pedigree, his production has been underwhelming. Much can be attributed to injuries. Now healthy, he may be ready to deliver on his athletic promise. Dansby’s exit velo, hard-hit rates and barrels are producing playable surface stats. Plucked off the waiver wire in shallower leagues, and reserve list material in some deeper formats, Swanson is forcing his way into fantasy lineups across the board. Asset Prediction: (p,a)

Christian Walker (p | -AV,EX) has been the main playing time beneficiary in Jake Lamb’s absence. He may be over his his skis a bit as a Bull Durham prospect sitting among the league leaders in power metrics, but we have see this sort of thing before. The old cliche is true, that in professional sports one must be ready for their opportunity and take advantage of it lest there never be another. At age 28, Walker seems to be the personification of this. Asset Prediction: (PW)

Let’s be honest – no one is going to mistake Matthew Boyd (| -ER) for a Hall of Famer. But so far in 2019, Boyd is doing his best Randy Johnson impression. Boyd’s heavy fastball/slider usage is reminiscent of the Big Unit, and the low arm angle is the cherry on top. Matthew’s K/9+ of 150 nestles him under Jacob deGrom and directly above Blake Snell, 2nd best in all of baseball. Another lefty named Patrick Corbin rode a nasty slider piece to 246 Ks and a $140 million contract. It’s not reasonable to expect these lofty levels ROS, but those who took a chance on Boyd are ready to swim in the profits. Asset Prediction: (e,KK)

The arrival of Eloy Jimenez  has had Cubs fans feeling stung by buyers remorse. Jose Quintana (e) has been, let’s say, less than stellar. The good news is, Quintana (pictured) seems to have rediscovered the feel for his changeup. Dominance has followed. Q’s 137 K/9+ has him tied for 5th in baseball. In an age when pitchers’ off-season “labbing” of new pitches has become highly publicized, Quintana seemed to do his work in the dark. No less effective, it’s possible that he may now be able to work deeper into games. If early April is any indication, the extra innings could lead to more Ks. And we like Ks. Asset Prediction: (e,KK)